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JONATHAN BEALE: These bottles could one day be
priced in Euros. It's a currency that's been adopted by eleven countries.
Euro notes and coins are already in production. The Prime Minister has
said he too wants to join a successful single currency. And he's asking
British companies like Bass to prepare for the day, but Tony Blair hasn't
told them yet when it'll happen.
PADDY ASHDOWN MP: I think this would have been
well recognised by Marshall Haig as a First World War strategy. They've
sent businesses into the front line to conduct this bloody battle but the
generals are still back at home in the Chateau.
He has the capacity to
show extraordinary courage and yet on this issue which he tells us is central
to his premiership he has completely failed to show the courage that is
necessary to give the lead, to take the country to the position he's told
us he wants us to be in.
BEALE: If there is any serious
debate in Government about Britain's entry into the single currency,
then it's only going on here behind closed doors. A year after the Prime
Minister told business to prepare for membership of the Euro, they and
the wider public are still wondering when it will happen.
A year ago Tony Blair
suggested it could happen very quickly. The National Changeover plan gave
a timetable for companies to work to. It could take Britain just three
years to join the Euro after a referendum.
TONY BLAIR (23 FEBRUARY 1999): What we announce today therefore
is not a change of policy. It is a change of gear. If we wish to have the
option of joining, we must prepare.
KENNETH CLARKE MP: It was a change of gear but
I'm not sure what gear they're in at the moment. But it was a reaffirmation
of their policy which happened to be identical to the policy of the Conservative
Party before the last election.
BEALE: Some British companies have
already started to work in Euros. Bass runs hotels all over the world
as well as producing beer and soft drinks. In most of Europe it's had
to change computers and tills. Two hundred and ninety million people in
eleven EU countries will be using the new notes and coins within two years.
The Government also wants British industry to begin thinking in Euros.
Most of Europe after all is already counting in them.
ANTHONY STERN: In the United Kingdom we
will be incorporating Euro facilities in our new tills. And so the changeover
should be relatively straightforward. But we won't implement that changeover
until there is a clear demand in the United Kingdom for use of the Euro.
And that is most likely to be after the Government has decided that it
wants to put the question of the Euro in a referendum and the British people
have said yes they want the Euro.
BEALE: The British Chamber of Commerce
is carrying out its own referendum even if the government is not. It wants
to know what its one hundred and thirty thousand members think about the
single currency and what they're doing to prepare. But even before the
results have been counted it's clear that most business is holding back.
IAN PETERS: The urgency really
has gone out of preparation I think for most people in business. They prepared
for the introduction of the single currency in the Euro Zone, but as far
as UK entry is concerned nobody really is making the running at the moment;
there's nobody putting pressure on business and quite rightly business
isn't going to spend significant sums of money until it's more certain
about whether we will enter or not.
BEALE: Meanwhile the Tories are
on the march. This week they kicked off their campaign to save the pound.
The Tory Leader hopes the message will capture the public's imagination
and he's enlisting all the help he can get.
WILLIAM HAGUE: I'll hold it to the photographers
but I'm holding it up to the people in St. Albans to remind them it's a
rare thing to see a politician put his hand in his pocket and pull out
a pound. It will never happen if Tony Blair wins the next election because
he wants to abolish the pound
BEALE: Conservatives are warning
that the Government's National Changeover plan is costing the country
millions of pounds.
MICHAEL PORTILLO MP: I call it the hand over plan
he was handing over our currency to Europe, he thought that by spending
all that money he could create an impression that it was going to happen
whatever people thought and they'd better get used to the idea. But actually
the experience of the last year has been rather different.
BEALE: The pro Euro lobby has put
together a formidable team. Britain in Europe was launched four months
ago. But so far they've hardly dared mention the Euro.
TONY BLAIR: Once in each generation the
case for Britain in Europe needs to be remade from first principles.
BEALE: But Euro enthusiasts want
the Prime Minister to talk more about the Single currency.
ASHDOWN: They're a brave bunch
of people who are doing the very best they can to counteract the argument.
But I'm afraid they haven't made much success so far. If I can change
the analogy, Britain in Europe reminds me a bit of Hamlet without to Prince.
The act is going on but without the Prince it's meaningless.
BEALE: Tony Blair and his Government's
enthusiasm for the Euro seems to have changed with the seasons. In February
last year when the changeover plan was unveiled the Prime Minister was
said to be ready to take Britain in. But a month later not everyone was
convinced. By spring even Mr Blair was said to be dithering. Come summer
though he was apparently backing the Euro while the Chancellor was ruling
out an imminent referendum. In the autumn the cabinet was united in support.
But there were also reports of splits between the Chancellor and the
Foreign Secretary. By winter the Prime Minister himself was championing
the Euro. Later his Chancellor was apparently unsympathetic, while the
Foreign Secretary was warning of the dangers of delaying. And by the start
of this year the Trade and Industry Secretary was backing the Euro.
CLARKE: I think their tactics are
sometimes fairly peculiar. I don't believe a lot of the press reports about
members of the Government going cool. I think they just argue amongst themselves
about the tactics of getting to the desired end of a referendum to take
us into the single currency if and when the conditions come right
GILES RADICE MP: People say well the Foreign
Secretary's saying one thing and the Secretary of State for Industry is
saying another and the Chancellor is saying another and so on. There's
not an absolute certainty of where the Government stands. Now I think the
Government does know where it stands and it's just the way it says it needs
to be agreed upon and then put over with renewed emphasis.
BEALE: In Sweden the Government
has also still to decide whether to sign up to the Single Currency. But
unlike Britain, here the political debate is now out in the open. The Prime
Minister and Finance Minister have both stated their desire to join the
Euro and they've now embarked on the difficult task of persuading their
party and the public.
Sweden's taken the first
tentative steps towards joining the Euro. It was only five years ago that
people here narrowly voted to join the EU. The public is split over the
single currency too. But the leading political figures believe they must
now begin the task of turning around opinion
BOSSE RINGHOLM: I think it's a very important step
for Sweden and for my Social Democrat party of course. We have entered
the European Union five years ago, and now we are ready for entering the
European Monetary Union too.
BEALE: Most Swedish industry too
wants its economy to be in tune with the rest of Europe. Scania is one
of Europe's largest truck manufacturers with factories in France and Holland.
It believes a strong Euro will create an more stable economic environment
in which to compete:
URBAN ERDTMAN: The desire is naturally
to be able to compete in the same way as our fellow competitors on the
continent, which are basically working in the Euro today. And naturally
in the long run we would like to have the same competitive possibilities
as our major competitors on the European market.
BEALE: But the Tories believe Britain's
economy is doing fine with sterling: ....And they're still waiting to hear
the Government present the arguments for the Euro. Polls suggest public
opinion is hardening against the single currency. Even though it's yet
to translate into a turnaround in Tory fortunes.
PORTILLO: The government read opinion
polls pretty well and they know that the vast majority of the population,
moderate minded people who are not ideologically committed to a federal
Europe are against scrapping the pound. The moderate majority in this country
is in favour of keeping the pound and so the Government is wary of offending
the moderate majority in this country and that is why they very often
downplay the Euro in what they say.
BEALE: The Prime Minister may find
it increasingly difficult to keep his strategy on the single currency under
wraps. The Conservatives are determined to make this an issue in the run
up to the General election, and pro-Europeans believe if Tony Blair wants
Britain to join sooner rather than later then he'll have to break his silence
and start selling the single currency.
ASHDOWN: I think this is the complete
illogicality, indeed stupidity of the position which Labour will describe
to you they're in.. They actually believe that by having the referendum
beyond the election they will somehow immunise the issue of the Euro during
he election. This is complete nonsense. The Tories have only got one line
to play and that's the Euro and they'll play it through the election so
there will have been a debate. But because the Government isn't prepared
to come out and argue that case my fear is that although the Government
will be returned at the next election the case for the Euro will be weaker
as a consequence. All you hear today is Euro sceptics. They have the best
hymns and they sing them the most loudly.
CLARKE: I think the Government
is deceiving itself if it thinks people are not going to regard it as an
important issue. I think the Government should be more up front explaining
why it is in favour of joining the single currency so long as the economic
circumstances come right.
RADICE: I think that the problem
for the Government is that the issue will be raised during the general
election and we will have to explain why it is that it might be in Britain's
interests to join a single currency. We can't just assume that people will
understand that as by osmosis.
BEALE: Warnings that the British
economy is about to be eclipsed by Euro-land are hotly disputed. The city
of London is still Europe's financial capital and in the past year inward
investment in Britain has increased. But campaigners for the single currency
are worried about the consequences of the delaying a decision
CLARKE: The Government does
keep saying its preparing for a referendum early in the next parliament
and that we will be asking the public to join if the economic conditions
are right. And I think most businessmen I know say: well they'd better
believe it I mean that had better be true. Because if anybody thought the
Government had lost its nerve and was going to postpone indefinitely a
decision on joining regardless of the economic circumstances, then in my
opinion lots of Japanese, American , overseas and British companies would
say: well I'm not investing any more serious money in manufacturing or
delivering services in the United Kingdom, I'm off.
ASHDOWN: What I'm clear about is,
if Britain doesn't join the single currency then we will pay a very heavy
price indeed; In jobs, in prosperity, in commerce and in political influence.
And I greatly fear that if this argument is lost and I am much more pessimistic
now than I was a year ago, then the consequences for our country will be
very, very grave . If in the end Mr Blair can't grasp this nettle, then
I fear, and I remember saying to him a long time ago, and he's heard if
from other sources too that just as Europe has been the wreckage of previous
premierships Europe will be the wreckage of this one too
BEALE: For the time being though
people are enjoying the good times outside the Euro. They've still to be
persuaded that the single currency will be better for Britain. If Tony
Blair really wants to take Britain into the Euro after the next election
he'll have to start turning around public opinion soon. And he can not
afford to hold a referendum without having won the argument. Supporters
of the single currency are getting worried he may have left it too late.
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