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PAOLA BUONADONNA: Copenhagen is better known
as a charming tourist destination than as the scene of vital political
decision-making -- But the sedate atmosphere of these rainy streets is
deceptive. In eleven days' time the Danish people will be asked to vote
in one of the most controversial referendums in the country's history:
whether or not to join the single currency. Their decision could have powerful
implications beyond Denmark.
The Danish euro referendum
could not have happened at a more delicate time for the British Government.
The results will come out on the last day of the Labour Party Conference
and immediately before the Conservatives begin theirs. If the Danes vote
yes, it could persuade the Government to hold an early referendum on the
Euro shortly after the General Election. If they vote no, the British referendum
could be off the agenda.
FRANK FIELD: It's clearly important
for Denmark in that they were the country which was allowed to vote on
Maastricht and they rejected it and had to be given another vote to bring
them into line, but my guess is that their result will actually be quite
important in the debate in the run-up to the referendum on the euro here.
CLAIRE WARD: It's going to put
greater pressure upon Britain and those who are outside of the eurozone
to really think what the future is going to be like being on the outside.
BUONADONNA: In 1992 the Danes
delivered a spectacular warning to the project of European integration
when 50.7 per cent voted down the Maastricht Treaty. Stock market reactions
forced several countries to devalue their currencies, while the UK and
Italy were forced out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism. But in Britain the
political effects of the Maastricht vote were just as powerful, signalling
the beginning of a long and damaging split in the Conservative Government.
IAN TAYLOR The Danish seem
to have a habit of making their referendums important, it was during the
Maastrich debate, on our own House of Commons dealings with that treaty,
and now it appears to be likely to influence the mood at least in the United
Kingdom towards the euro.
BUONADONNA: The Danish euro referendum
was called in March, when the yes camp had a fifteen point lead in the
polls. All the main parties are in favour of the euro. But in the course
of the six month campaign popular support has ebbed away and now the two
sides are neck and neck, each energetically wooing the substantial number
of voters who remain undecided. If Denmark decides to join the euro it
will give a powerful boost to the pro-euro campaign in the UK. euro supporters
will tell the Government that it will have to be far more positive and
aggressive on the euro issue, to gear up for an early referendum.
WARD: If we're
going to be able to convince people of the need for the future of Britain,
for its interests, for its economic interests and for the future of the
jobs in this country, that we've got to spell out why we support the euro
and we've got to do it early.
BUONADONNA: The Danish Social
Democratic Prime Minister, Poul Nyrup Rasmussen, is on the campaign trail.
Workers at this steel foundry in Holstebro quizzed him at length on the
reasons for abandoning the Krone. He thinks his clear and unequivocal support
for the euro can win the doubters round. Many in Britain want Tony Blair
to display the same determination.
POUL NYRUP RASMUSSEN: We have been campaigning
now in six and a half months and that means that all the arguments are
there on the table What the Danes want to see is not a Prime Minister behind
his desk office, or in - in beautiful rooms, collared and all that, they
want to see a Prime Minister among themselves, on their working place,
on the streets, to the meetings, that's where we have to be and that's
what I like and I love. You know, like an old horse smelling a little
bit of the circus I like to be here.
WARD: I
think the government have got to decide if we really do support joining
the euro, then we've got to lead that campaign, and we've got to be in
a position when we are calling a referendum that we are in a strong position
to be able to lead it, as strong as we possibly can be.
BUONADONNA: The British
No campaign is well underway - last week they launched a media offensive
led by Lord Owen. They're determined that the euro remains centre-stage
between now and the next General Election. The Government appears to be
in trouble whatever it does. Some in Labour fear a pro-euro line could
jeopardise the election, but leaving the campaign until after the election
might not leave enough time to turn around public opinion.
TAYLOR: If
Tony Blair doesn't have the courage of his convictions and pretends this
is not an issue that he needs to discuss until after the next General Election,
then it's going to be very difficult suddenly, pre-supposing he does win,
for him to say now we must suddenly confront this and I'm going to put
the arguments in favour. That's just not credible, we've got to start progressively
now to prepare the British people for the political and economic debate
that we're going to have if we have a referendum within two years.
FIELD: The
government knows that the euro is a vote loser and therefore quite naturally
it is trying, it won't succeed but it is trying to keep the euro out of
the General Election campaign. There'd be huge tension about whether
the current formula can be sustained during the General Election campaign.
The more out of control from the government's point of view, the euro
debate gets, the more Labour seats would be put in danger.
WILLIAM HAGUE: The Conservative
Party takes another step to advance our common-sense revolution.
BUONADONNA: That's why
launching a mini-manifesto earlier this month, the Conservative leader,
William Hague, toughened his stance on Europe. He drew the line on any
further transfers of power to Brussels. But a yes victory in Denmark could
be embarrassing and Tory spokesmen are careful to avoid any comments ahead
of the referendum. But some say that it would undermine the official Tory
policy.
TAYLOR: Ah, yes victory in Denmark
would certainly cause some of my colleagues to stop in their tracks; rather
unwisely one or two or my colleagues have actually participated in the
Danish debate, ironically some of those colleagues are the very ones that
actually say we don't want interference in our affairs from people outside,
and here there are interfering in the Danish electorates affairs. So I
think it would have a big effect on the Tory party,
JOHN REDWOOD, MP: Well I don't think you're going
to change William Hague's mind. He won the leadership election around
the proposition, that he would rule it out for two parliaments then, the
one we're just living through, and the next one, and the party voted for
him on that basis. And I support him, because I want a coalition of all
those who say never, and there are a lot of people in the Tory party who
say never, and those who say, well certainly not for a long time.
BUONADONNA: The leaders of the small anti-Euro
Christian People's party are getting ready for a grilling on Denmark's
main TV channel. They need all the free air time they can get. The no camp
is made up of a mixture of fringe parties on the right and left together
with public sector workers who fear the Euro would damage Denmark's generous
welfare state. Their campaign has been buoyed by the continuing slide in
the value of the Euro.
If the Danes vote to reject the Euro, even by a narrow margin, Euro enthusiasts
in the British cabinet such as the Foreign Secretary Robin Cook, and the
Northern Ireland Secretary Peter Mandelson could find it hard to push for
the Euro campaign to be stepped up. And the Chancellor, Gordon Brown, may
well be tempted to put the referendum off.
FIELD: We have the fourth richest
economy. He's the first successful Labour chancellor. And therefore,
he's going to be very cautious indeed about putting that at risk, with
all the adjustments which would have to follow in this country if we entered.
And my guess is that his apparent scepticism will be one which will grow.
WARD: If there's a no vote in Denmark
and they are on the outside and they decide to stay out of the Euro zone,
it will make it difficult but that doesn't change the arguments about why
we want to join the Euro, and we believe that the longer we stay out of
the Euro, the more difficult it is for us and particularly for our businesses,
and that will increase as time goes on.
BUONADONNA: The former Labour Social Security
Minister Frank Field is one of the Eurosceptics who has been over to Denmark.
Mr Field believes a no victory will destroy the argument that it is inevitable
for Britain to join the Single Currency in the long run.
FIELD: You most assuredly will
influence the outcome in Britain...
BUONADONNA: Although eleven of the 15
EU countries are already part of the Euro and Greece is due to join soon,
if the Danes stay out Sweden as well as the UK may decide not to hold a
referendum.
FIELD: A 'no' vote in Denmark would
show that a country, only a fraction the size of us has got extraordinary
courage that it knows it can survive, it knows there's life after the Euro,
and that would actually have a very, very big effect on the debate in this
country.
BUONADONNA: MEP Jens Peter-Bonde, one of
the leaders of the cross party anti-Euro June Movement knows that both
Sweden and Britain are watching the Danish decision closely. His message
is clear - he tells these students in Copenhagen that rejecting the Euro
is the only way for Denmark to retain democratic control of its institutions.
The political argument has been exploited by the 'no' side very successfully,
both in Denmark and in the UK.
JENS PETER-BONDE, MEP They've never explained to the people
this is a political project. The aspirations of France and Germany is
to form a United States of Europe, they never told the truth, so this is
the reason that the 'yes' campaign has run into difficulties, because people
don't believe it's a question of, of the interest rate being a half per
cent higher or lower.
TAYLOR: I believe that we have
made a tactical error, or rather I don't think Ken Clarke and myself and
others in the Conservative party have ignored the political aspects of
it, but I think the government would rather the political aspects were
set aside, that is a mistake we have to address them. It's a question
of whether we actually increase our influence within the European Union
to which we are committed by being part of the Euro zone or not, and that
is political influence.
BUONADONNA: Members of the main centre
right opposition party, Venstre, are campaigning hard in favour of Denmark
joining the Euro. Unlike in the UK where the Tory party and large chunks
of the media and business are hostile to the Euro, in Denmark the single
currency project enjoys the support of most of the establishment. So anti-Euro
campaigners in Britain warn Tony Blair that a Danish 'yes' victory would
not offer much comfort while a 'no' victory would show just how tough the
challenge is.
REDWOOD: It might even cause the
Prime Minister to have some doubts, about his ability to persuade the British
people the wisdom of this, if he sees the whole Danish establishment, all
the industry leaders, all the trade union leaders, all the political parties
telling the Danish people, for the second time, that they've got to vote
'yes' for this thing and then failing, that would be quite a blow to their
esteem.
BUONADONNA: With eleven days to go till
polling day, the Danish campaign is hotting up - both sides are using any
trick to capture the public's imagination. The far right Danish People's
Party resort to unicycles to soften their image. Whichever way it goes,
it will have a big impact on the Euro debate in the UK. The Danish result
may well determine when or even whether the British people decide on the
future of the pound.
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