BBC On The Record - Broadcast: 17.09.00

Film: LIB DEMS VT. The Liberal Democrats won 46 seats at the last General Election. But will their policies on the Euro and tax make it more difficult for them to hold onto the seats of the next election.



TERRY DIGNAN: The Liberal Democrats face a struggle to hold on to seats won from the Conservatives who say they're now roaring back into contention. Preparing for the battle ahead with fund-raising events like this one, at which visitors learn how to be rally drivers, the Conservatives reckon they'll gain pole position at the next election by executing a simple vote winning manoeuvre. The Conservatives here in Winchester and in other marginal constituencies are gearing up their election machine with a promise to expose the truth about the policies of the Liberal Democrats. The Liberal Democrats, they say, would join up with Labour to surrender British sovereignty to Europe. And that's not all. They'd want swingeing tax increases to pay for their public spending programmes. So, rather than try to raise their voices above the din of a noisy election campaign, perhaps the Liberal Democrats would be better advised to stay quiet about their policies. Andrew Hayes wants Britain to stay in control of its own currency. The Tories' prospective candidate in Winchester, he says although the Liberal Democrats are in favour of joining the Euro, you wouldn't guess that from listening to the local Lib Dem MP. ANDREW HAYES: The Liberals do not like talking about Europe. They were frightened by the results of the European elections last year when we got double the votes the Liberal Party got here in Winchester. They do not want it on the agenda. Now this is a key policy for them, nationally. They do not talk about it locally. My job is make sure people understand the views of the local Member of Parliament so they can make their judgement when the time comes. DIGNAN: At Nuffield College, Oxford, the findings of a study into how voters feel about the big issues of the day are analysed by a team led by Professor Anthony Heath. They show that the majority of people aren't aware that the Liberal Democrats are Britain's most pro-European or Europhile party. PROFESSOR ANTHONY HEATH: The Europhile approach of the Liberal Democrats hasn't got across. Most of the electorate just think they're a neutral middle-of-the-road party on Europe as on so many other issues. DIGNAN: Winchester's Liberal Democrat MP Mark Oaten isn't going out of his way to enlighten voters about his views on Europe. When he's visiting constituents - today he's meeting local beekeepers - Europe, he says, is rarely raised. It's not that he's anything to hide on the issue - it's just that people here have more pressing concerns. MARK OATEN MP: My post bag tells me that concerns about waiting times at the local hospital, concerns about actually getting a decent education for children and the lack of increases in pension, are what people want to hear me talking about. So that's why Europe won't be my number one issue. But I'll certainly address it if it's put to me. DIGNAN: The Liberal Democrats' perspective on what matters most to voters may be accurate, despite the evidence showing that Britain's electoral landscape now provides a natural breeding ground for the Conservatives' brand of Euro-scepticism. PROFESSOR HEATH: Historically the British voter has always paid most attention to what we can think of as the bread and butter issues, issues to do with unemployment, inflation, taxation and government spending. Those are the issues which the voter thinks government is responsible for, that it's up to the Government to deliver proper public services, it's also up the Government to keep taxes down. DIGNAN: Ian Liddell Grainger says that when he talks to voters he finds that Europe is as important as the bread and butter issues. The prospective Conservative candidate for Bridgewater, he believes the issue will help the Tories to win back seats they've lost and hold on to those, such as this part of rural Somerset, where the Liberal Democrats are a close second. IAN LIDDELL-GRAINGER: I think you'll find Europe is very important and I'm gonna bring it up in every chance I can because it is important and it matters to the people of Bridgwater. Today I've been talking to farmers on Exmoor and here just outside Bridgwater, we have talked mostly about the effect of Europe. They want to know and if I said 'I'm sorry it's not relevant,' they would be rightly furious. You can't hide your head anymore, Europe is now predominant in British politics. DIGNAN: It's all change at the offices of Bridgewater's Liberal Democrats. Their prospective candidate would also like a new look to the party's tactics in case the Conservatives succeed in making Europe one of the big election issues. What he's looking for is a more forceful response to Conservative attacks on the Liberal Democrats' pro European policies. IAN THORNE: I think we'd like to see the party do more, I think it's all of our responsibilities to be much more pro active in terms of getting the message across. There are a huge number of people, ordinary voters, who are committed to Europe who understand what the benefits are for our futures as this country and I think that there are a lot of people out there who are waiting to hear a party that is prepared to stand up and speak up for Europe. DIGNAN: Liberal Democrat Winchester. Targeted by the Conservatives. Tory Bridgewater. Targeted by the Liberal Democrats. In each seat the Conservatives regard Europe as their opponents' Achilles heal. But the Liberal Democrats believe their support for higher public spending will see them through to victory even though they'd meet this pledge by raising taxes. OATEN: You've got to raise those funds from somewhere and I speak to a lot of people and Conservatives in Winchester as well, who do recognise that you can't have all of these things without paying for it. Much better therefore to be up front, clear with people and say, 'we won't do it beyond this, but yep there is a price to pay and this is what it's going to be.' HAYES: What we're seeing now is a Liberal Party that is committed to policies that are more left wing than the Labour Party. I never thought that we'd see a return to the kind of punitive taxation the Liberal Party unmasked this week. These sort of policies I do not believe will go down well in Winchester. They're to the left of the Labour Party and I believe the Liberal Party's made a big fundamental mistake if it wants to retain the support of people in areas such as this. DIGNAN: When the Liberal Democrats set out their policies at Westminster, as they did recently, the reporting often concentrates on planned tax increases. Yet, frustratingly for the Conservatives, the voters often don't notice. PROFESSOR HEATH: If you studied the party manifestos you would see that the Liberal Democrats are indeed now the, the most radical party on taxing and spending. But that hasn't got across to the voters. The voters at the moment think the Liberal Democrats are middle of the road on taxes and spending. DIGNAN: Which may be just as well in view of the nation-wide protests against petrol tax increases. Dubbed by the Tories the 'taxpayers revolt,' the sight of Britain grinding to a halt is being used by some Liberal Democrats as a warning to their party that support for higher taxes may prove to be damaging come the next election. CHRIS FOX: The whole tax and spend issue I think will be quite prominent in the next election, not least because people seem finally to have understood that indirect taxes are also a major part of the overall tax burden, that's what we're seeing with the petroleum issue. So it's going to be an issue. There is a danger that each time we make a proposal that says we're going to increase taxes and we're going to spend it on that issue, that we can be depicted by our opponents as being a tax and spend party. They can use each of those examples as evidence of an underlying tendency within the party to be wholly tax and spend. DIGNAN: But Conservative attacks on Liberal Democrat spending plans could backfire, says Mark Oaten, by drawing attention to the effects of Tory tax cuts on vital public services. OATEN: If they're going to get any more votes in a seat like this, then we need to know what they're going to do about core public services and how they're going to fund them because they're committed to more tax cuts. Well you know, the public aren't stupid. If you're going to improve health, education and pensioners then how on earth are you going to pay for it? PROFESSOR HEATH: It might be tempting for the Tories to try to educate the voters and to tell them where the Liberal Democrats stand but this may well not work because the voters are really only going to believe messages that comes from a source that they trust, so that if the Conservatives are not really trusted in general then the things they say about the Liberal Democrats won't be trusted either. DIGNAN: So in seats like Bridgewater the Liberal Democrats will risk calling for higher taxes. Although it might scare off some voters, the policy could have the opposite effect on one group in particular. The Liberal Democrats in Bridgewater believe their party's message on tax and spend could prove to be popular with Labour voters. Here in Somerset at the last election the Liberal Democrats persuaded some Labour supporters to vote tactically for the Liberal Democrats to get the Conservatives out. In Bridgewater, where Labour is third, tactical voting could prove to be crucial at the next election. THORNE: There is an overwhelming non Conservative majority in the seat. My job is to get out there and to talk to local people and to make sure that they know that if they want to get the Conservatives out they have to vote for the Liberal Democrats. PROFESSOR HEATH: We're going to see a great deal of tactical voting at the next election, probably even more than we saw at the last election because on issues like taxation and spending the, the voters now don't really see any appreciable difference between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. DIGNAN: The Liberal Democrats are counting down to the election and in Bridgewater there's no time to lose. Their enemies say they're glossing over enthusiasm for Europe. Liberal Democrats prefer talking about improving services. But that could mean raising taxes when there's growing voter hostility to the idea. Tactical voting may help - but will it be enough?
NB. This transcript was typed from a transcription unit recording and not copied from an original script. Because of the possibility of mis-hearing and the difficulty, in some cases, of identifying individual speakers, the BBC cannot vouch for its accuracy.