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RHYS PARRY: This is going to be the autumn
and winter of discontent in the countryside, big time. Because it's not
just fuel it's everything we send up that drive, off this farm, off my
neighbours' farms who produce milk, is all being sold at a loss. And this
just cannot go on.
PAUL WILENIUS: Here in the Welsh hills
along with many other rural areas of Britain, there is a scent of rebellion.
Ministers are under fierce attack over fox hunting and the farming crisis,
as it's feared the way of life in the countryside is being destroyed.
But how serious is this uprising and are many of the rural seats now held
by Labour under threat?
At the sheep market at
Abergavenny in the Labour held seat of Monmouth, hard pressed farmers may
fear the bell is tolling for them.
PARRY: You just cannot go on living
on promises or you know you're just going to have to say enough is enough,
we cannot do this anymore.
WILENIUS: Livestock prices are
down, costs like fuel are up, and incomes are falling. New evidence shows
that for some, incomes have plummeted by up to 90 per cent and there are
fears the government isn't listening.
PARRY: Blair is out of touch and
he's arrogant and he proves it by making statements like there's no crisis
in the countryside . He ignores the fact that the fuel is too expensive,
which affects the countryside and the farmers more than anyone, and you
know he just doesn't care so long as he's looking after the city folks.
WILENIUS: The Labour Government
was rocked by the sheer number of the protesters who marched through Westminster
on the Countryside March two years ago. Action was promised then, but
little happened and the leaders of the Countryside Alliance who meet in
London for their annual conference this week, say feelings are running
high.
JOHN JACKSON: The countryside is seething
with resentment and discontent and this is mainly because people feel they
are talking to a brick wall, that they are not being heard. And some very
unfortunate things are being said.
TIM YEO MP: Well I fear we are approaching
a state of revolt in the countryside. That's very sad because we've always
believed passionately that the needs of both town and country are complementary,
they're almost indivisible. And what we have now, I think is a real sense
amongst country people, that this government is not sympathetic to their
views.
WILENIUS: But the whole rural debate
seems to be dominated by the future of fox hunting. The plight of farmers
like Rhys Parry appears to be overshadowed by the fierce battle to save
hunts like this one in Monmouthshire. Already protesting hunters have become
familiar sights at the party conferences and on the streets of London.
But with the Countryside Alliance promising more huge protests, sympathy
for those working the land could be left behind, if the government decides
to press ahead with a ban.
JACKSON: I think that would give
rise, inevitably, to the biggest civil rights protest that Europe has ever
seen. The Countryside Alliance called for an independent enquiry; we got
the Burns Committee and the Burns Report - an absolutely first class report.
Any fair person reading that objectively cannot conclude that there are
public policy reasons for banning hunting.
YEO: I think at a time
when there are so many other urgent and real problems which affect everybody
in the countryside, it's extraordinary that in the coming year, parliament
is likely to devote a lot of time to debating an attempt to ban field sports.
There is a civil liberties issue here. This is a recreation which people
have enjoyed for generations and for others to say that it should now become
a crime, I think shows a degree of intolerance of rural people, that really
is extremely worrying.
WILENIUS: But the idea that these
hunters have the backing of the majority of rural voters, is a myth. The
evidence shows that those who feel the way of life in the countryside would
be ruined by a ban, are in a clear minority. Labour MPs and pollsters declare
that most rural people want this sport outlawed and that the Countryside
Alliance does not represent their views.
BOB WORCESTER: The Countryside Alliance,
are after all a pressure group, funded mainly, I understand by the people
who want to keep fox hunting. I can understand that point of view, but
it's not supported by the majority of people in rural areas. We tightly
define the rural areas to be real rural areas, in enough constituencies,
where it would make a political difference, and we find a majority of people
in those areas, 52%, say that they're in favour of banning fox hunting
in our most recent poll, earlier this year, and only 28% are on the side
of the Countryside Alliance.
HUW EDWARDS MP: When we had a private members bill,
Michael Foster's bill, four out of five of the letters I got in this constituency
was asking me to support Michael Foster's bill. People in my constituency
overwhelmingly believe it's morally wrong to hunt animals with sport, with
dogs as a sport.
WILENIUS: No one in government
seemed to be listening to the voices of the farmers and the hunters. Until
they found an issue which galvanized support, and seemed to touch a chord
in the countryside. It was the high price of fuel.
Rhys Parry was one of
the farmers who blockaded oil refineries during the petrol crisis. Here
at a meeting of Farmers For Action in Raglan near Monmouth last week, they
plan out their next move. They aim to mount more protests and may stop
fuel supplies again within 30 days if the government doesn't come up with
an acceptable plan to cut fuel costs. They also want political support
and the Tories are ready to give it to them.
YEO: What we certainly
can support, very strongly, are people - demonstrating peacefully, protesting
peacefully against the highest fuel taxes in Europe and just trying to
point out to everyone, in town and country alike, just how much damage
is being done, directly as a result of this government and their arrogant
and insensitive response to the protest, is simply making matters worse.
ROSIE WINTERTON MP: When people see members of
the Countryside Alliance, appearing with posters that say Blair Out and
when leading members of the Countryside Alliance say that they want to
bring the Blair Government down, of course they're going to be perceived
as having a political agenda. And when people see farmers protesting about
the fuel duty, when they're appearing in tractors that are run on red diesel,
on which they pay 3p duty, yeah, people are going to say, that looks like
a political agenda, as opposed to a proper protest.
WILENIUS: Countryside campaigners
aim to take to the streets again with the threat of more fuel blockades
and a mass rally next year. But the evidence shows there's no serious
backlash against the government. Indeed Labour support is holding up among
rural voters. Like those in urban areas, they're primarily concerned with
improving health, education and other services.
The myths surrounding
the countryside vote are blown aside by an exclusive analysis by the pollsters
MORI for On The Record of the nation's 86 rural seats. It shows that
in constituencies with a large rural vote, support for Labour since the
election is holding up, at 25 per cent. While for the Conservatives it's
dropped to 33 per cent, with the Liberal Democrats increasing their share
of the vote to 28 per cent.
Yet in constituencies
with no rural vote. Support for Labour has fallen to 47 per cent, while
backing for the Conservatives has risen to 34 per cent. The Liberal Democrat
share of the vote also went up to 15 per cent.
BOB WORCESTER: When you look at the analysis
of people living in rural areas, whether they live in a village or whether
they live in the countryside, what you find is a remarkable symmetry between
the national picture and people living in those areas. They're interested
in the health care, they're interested in education, they're interested
in crime and law and order. They're interested in transport, perhaps that's
up a bit, in the rural areas, because the bus services and the train services
aren't as good as perhaps they should be, in the minds of these people.
But the pure countryside issues, the hunting for instance, when you look
at the salience levels, are way way down the list.
JAYNE HAYCROFT: I think the reality is that families,
whether they live in a rural area or a city, are concerned about their
children's education, their health, the cost of fuel and the cost of food
and the Countryside Alliance doesn't particularly speak up for me on those
issues.
WILENIUS: And it's those core issues
which concern mother of three Jayne Haycroft the most and which the government
must address in the run up to the next election.
HUW EDWARDS MP: Well I think many of the issues
are the same as apply to people in urban areas. They want a good strong
economy, they want decent education for children, they want a decent National
Health Service. That applies equally in rural areas, as it does in urban
areas.
WILENIUS: When the government's
long awaited Rural White Paper finally arrives, probably next month, it
will mainly need to give the government's national policies on health,
education, crime and the economy a rural focus. But despite the anger
over high fuel prices, there's no more evidence of dissatisfaction in the
countryside with the government, than in the towns and cities. And most
significantly, areas where rural voters like Jayne live, include only a
very small number of Labour seats.
WORCESTER: Of the eighty-six seats that
are in true rural areas, defined as we have, by a quarter of their electorate,
being - living in the countryside, eighty-six of those seats and yet fifty
six are held by the Conservatives already, twenty are held by Liberal Democrats
out of the forty seven seats they hold, and only ten are Labour. If the
Conservatives think that they're going to make much in-roads, in to those,
ten is as many as they'll get.
WILENIUS: The Countryside Alliance
holds its annual conference here this week, claiming to represent a broad
coalition of rural voters. But in reality it only speaks for a small section
of the electorate and few of those would ever vote Labour. So Tony Blair
doesn't need to appease the countryside campaigners to do well at the next
election, instead he has to reclaim the trust of ALL the voters on core
issues.
WORCESTER: Well it's clearly been over-hyped,
because all this countryside march, and all of that, we're talking about
at maximum a couple of hundred thousand people, that's one half of one
per cent in a General Election vote. Now, one person in two hundred out
there on the march and the politicians and the media all go bananas, you
know, it's not really there in numbers.
WINTERTON: I believe at the next election,
people in rural areas will vote on a whole range of issues and I believe
at the top of their agenda will be things like health, education, transport,
crime. They will want to see whether the Labour government has delivered
on those issues. If you compare that with what they might feel for example
about fox hunting, I suspect the issues like health, education, transport
and crime, will be the ones that they will decide whether or not they want
to vote Labour on. They'll be looking to see that Labour has delivered
in those areas.
WILENIUS: So to grasp the glittering
prize of an historic second term, Tony Blair doesn't need to dream up specific
rural policies. As long as he can regain the trust of the voters who elected
him last time, he can let the countryside campaigners go their own way.
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