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HUMPHRYS: The Scottish Labour
Party has a new leader, Henry McLeish. And this week he will be approved
- almost certainly anyway - as the First Minister of Scotland. Not the
easiest time to take over. Labour has big problems in Scotland, the fiasco
over exams still lingers on and the Nationalists have a new leader too
and he's really putting the pressure on. There's also the fact that Mr
McLeish is succeeding Donald Dewar. Although Mr Dewar had plenty of problems
he, at least, had years of experience in the front rank of Westminster
politics. I'll be talking to Mr McLeish after this report from Iain Watson.
IAIN WATSON: On Wednesday, Scotland
was a nation united in grief. It wasn't just the great and the good who
turned out to bury the country's first ever First Minister, but people
without rank or title. Although people from all parties and none were present,
the funeral itself had the air of a Labour movement event. Tribute after
tribute which flowed from Glasgow's gothic cathedral, praised Donald Dewar's
lifelong commitment to social justice. But, as night fell over his home
city, Labour colleagues were already discussing how best to safeguard his
legacy in the face of a resurgent opposition.
Donald Dewar did much
to turn the promise of a Scottish Parliament into reality. But his successor
as Labour leader faces huge challenges if devolution isn't to rebound on
the party which made it all possible. The Labour led coalition has been
buffeted by bad headlines, even on those issues which play well for the
party south of the border, such as education and health. And the Scottish
National Party, under a new leader, are shifting their ground to exploit
Labour's difficulties at the ballot box. Henry McLeish has the opportunity
to offer Labour a fresh start in Scotland, but some of his colleagues are
warning him of the threat posed by the SNP
JOHN McALLION: In the Scottish elections
they are a very serious contender indeed and indeed it may well suit voters
in Scotland to have a Labour government at Westminster, and an SNP led
administration in Holyrood. Because in that way they can get the best for
Scotland from both sides
JOHN CURTICE: Henry McLeish may well be
regarded by some people in Scotland, and he will certainly be criticised
by his opponents in the SNP, as yet another predominately Westminster import
WATSON: Henry McLeish has to prove
that a Labour led coalition can deliver on the people's priorities but
it's been hit by bad publicity over, for example, the decision to abolish
Clause 28, which prevented councils from promoting homosexuality. But
it's on Labour's core issues that the problems are continuing. The health
minister and the finance minister fell out over spending on the NHS, and
with hospital waiting lists rising, Labour is in danger of not delivering
on its pledge to get them down in time for the next General Election. On
education, some pupils received inaccurate exam results which caused a
crisis of confidence in the whole system. With an inquiry due to report
on the fiasco, pressure may increase on the Labour education minister to
go.
ACTUALITY:
WATSON: In England, if Labour's
core voters feel disappointed, they tend to stay at home, here in Scotland
they have an alternative.
John Swinney is the new leader of the Scottish National Party, seen as
a more reassuring figure than his predecessor Alex Salmond. He's pro-independence,
of course, but his strategy is to perk up the SNP vote by talking about
a wider range of issues and watering down the emphasis on separation from
England.
JOHN SWINNEY: We've got to get across to
people the key lines of argument that we would put forward on the issues
that concern the voters, about education or about health or crime or poverty
or these other core social and economic concerns. And by setting that out
to the public, I think we've sent out a message that's in tune with their
own ambitions and the ambitions of their communities. And that's where
the prospects for success for the SNP will come from.
WATSON: The SNP will have an early
opportunity to test their message in what was traditional Labour territory.
There will be three by-elections in Scotland in the near future - two of
them will be in the Glasgow Anniesland constituency of the late Donald
Dewar. That's because his seat in the Westminster, as well as the Scottish
Parliament will have to be filled. Labour may well attract a sympathy vote
there, but here in West Falkirk, at the very heart of central Scotland,
a bitter battle lies ahead
The motto of this town is 'better meddle wi' the devil than wi' the bairns
of Falkirk.' For those of you south of the border, roughly translated,
that means 'don't mess with us mate'. Unfortunately for Labour, they didn't
take that advice. The local MP Dennis Canavan wanted to stand for the Scottish
Parliament but he was kept off the list of approved candidates. He stood
anyway, as an Independent, and gave his former party a drubbing, and now
he's about to resign his Westminster seat causing more problems for Labour
at a difficult time.
CURTICE: The SNP certainly have
clearly signaled that Falkirk West is a clear target for them, although
he's now leader John Sweeney has decided to put himself personally in charge
of the campaign.
WATSON: The SNP leader is confident
that Labour's vote will decrease because they've surrendered their traditional
ground to his party.
SWINNEY: I think the SNP's values
as a moderate left of centre political party are absolutely the right values
within mainstream Scotland and which allows us to fight contests in Falkirk
West or Anniesland or any of the other particular part of Scotland, in
the central belt. The problem for the Labour Party is the fact that they've
actually moved to the right in their political agenda.
WATSON: Labour are the largest
party at the Scottish Parliament here in Edinburgh. But their predominance
may not persist. Recent opinion polls are suggesting that Scottish voters
might vote a different way at elections to the Edinburgh parliament than
to the Westminster parliament. Labour are in little danger of losing too
many seats to the SNP at a UK General Election, but when it comes to the
Scottish parliament - known locally as Holyrood - their support could drift
away.
CURTICE: We're still seeing persistently
far fewer people preferring Labour for the Holyrood elections, than would
do for a Westminster election, whereas in contrast the SNP are more popular
when it comes to Holyrood elections. So as a result of this we're seeing
the opinions polls showing fairly consistently the SNP at least neck and
neck with Labour in recent months and occasionally well ahead. So when
it comes to the contest for the next Scottish election in 2003, Labour
certainly look as though they do have a serious challenge on their hands.
WATSON: Dundee may look like the
sort of place where Labour should be weighing its votes rather than counting
it, but the SNP are creeping up - Labour fended them off by just 121 votes
in the Dundee West constituency at last year's Scottish elections. The
MSP for the neighbouring seat says that Labour must be seen to be standing
up for Scotland - even if that means that they must argue for yet more
powers to come north from Westminster.
McALLION: If again the Labour Party
were to allow the SNP in the Scottish parliament to be the party that was
pushing for more powers for the Scottish parliament, while we consistently
defended these powers being reserved to Westminster. Then again that would
just reinforce their message, that they're Scotland's party and we're Westminster's
party. And therefore I think the party in Scotland really has to continue
and accept that it is a process and in the longer term more powers will
come to the Scottish parliament. And rightly come to the Scottish parliament.
WATSON: Opinion polls suggest that
Scottish voters would be happy to see Labour, north of the border,
pursue a more distinctive agenda from Westminster.
CURTICE: All the persistent problems
that Labour seem to have is to be able to convince people in Scotland that
they're willing to use the powers of the Scottish parliament to deploy
a public policy that perhaps is rather different from that which is going
on south of the border.
WATSON: So the argument runs that
the new leader should not just distance himself from Westminster, but should
also battle more strongly for Labour's heartlands, by reoccupying their
traditional left wing territory.
MARGARET CURRAN; I think in this area we get a
real example of the kind of challenges that we face. Here we can graphically
see the poverty that people have had to live with.
WATSON: Margaret Curran's constituency
includes the sprawling Easterhouse estate. She believes the SNP are trying
to move opportunistically onto Labour's ground, so her party must demonstrate
that it's delivering for its long-standing supporters.
CURRAN: The big issues I think
the new leader now has to address are the need absolutely for social justice
and inclusion as they have already stated. But it is also the need for
public investment. It is also the need to be loyal to the people that
have always voted for us and to deliver for them.
WATSON: East wood, just south
of Glasgow, is about 15 miles from Margaret Curran's constituency; it too
has a Labour MSP - but it's a very different place. Ken MacIntosh is enjoying
the last few days of the parliamentary recess with his family. Labour snapped
up the seat in 1997 for the first time and retained it in the 1999 Scottish
elections. If Labour is tempted to take on the SNP from the left, it could
leave places like this vulnerable.
KEN MACINTOSH: I'm very aware here in this
constituency that we have a Labour Tory fight as well as the national Labour
SNP fight. Therefore we've got to appeal, make sure that we don't lose
any of the Tory voters that came over to Labour at the last election and
recognise that Labour is a party that can deliver on the economy and is
a sound party of government and at the same time is not deserting any of
our core voters or any of the voters that might think that the SNP in any
way offer a more radical alternative which obviously they are trying to
portray themselves as.
WATSON: Labour's Scottish leader
will have to fend off attacks from his opponents. As an ally of the Chancellor
Gordon Brown some will say he's Westminster's man. But his political stock
is more likely to fall as a result of the way in which he was selected
for his new job.
Labour's new leader in Scotland, Henry McLeish, was elected here in Stirling
yesterday. He's seen as a safe pair of hands with ministerial experience
both at Westminster and at Holyrood - but he can't celebrate his victory
just yet. He has been elected only as interim leader of the party, and
political opponents, and even some allies are calling for a proper contest
involving the whole party membership here in Scotland.
Labour's 54 MSPs along with the party's 27 strong executive had a vote
in yesterday leadership ballot - that's 81 people out of a total membership
of 30,000. The party admits this was a rush job, but say that the law
required a new first minister within a month of Donald Dewar's death.
ACTUALITY: "Jack McConnell 36, and Henry
McLeish 44."
WATSON: In the end it was a narrow
victory for Henry McLeish, currently the Enterprise Minister, over his
challenger, the Finance Minister, Jack McConnell. An electoral college
comprising party members and trade unions will be asked to endorse the
result, but some fear this will be merely an exercise in rubber stamping.
The SNP have been quick to exploit the disquiet.
SWINNEY: I think Henry McLeish
starts off fatally wounded by the fact they he's a product of a political
fix. He's the product of a restricted franchise and a limited election
- there's been virtually no debate about this issue and I think the public
will think a bit too much haste taken to decide on such an important issue.
McALLION: It's a very hard act
to follow, Donald Dewar. But only one way in which you can do that is
by being, like him, elected by the membership of the Scottish Labour party.
That gives them a status and a position in Scottish politics that otherwise
they would not have. And therefore it's absolutely essential that there
is a full democratic election and a contest for leader and deputy leader
of the Labour party.
WATSON: Labour always claimed that
devolution would make the United kingdom stronger, not weaker. But Henry
McLeish faces a difficult task - he has to convince voters he is standing
up for Scotland without provoking too many conflicts with Westminster.
But, after a tight election, he may lack the authority to take on the tough
political challenges which lie ahead.
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