IAIN WATSON:                       Northern Ireland's 
pro-agreement parties are in conflict - each has been fighting its corner 
in intense negotiations. The military presence has been reduced across 
the province, but that's not so obvious if you live in a border town such 
as Crossmaglen in South Armagh.  Sinn Fein are demanding a further scaling 
down of the security forces; the usually moderate SDLP, won't yet give 
its backing to the reform of the policing service and the Unionists want 
to see a start made on decommissioning by the IRA.  The government is keen 
to break this deadlock within the next ten days.  There's a very narrow 
window of opportunity this month for any deal to be struck. That's because 
pretty soon, minds will be focussed on fighting  the forthcoming local 
council elections here in Northern Ireland and the widely expected General 
Election in the spring and the danger is if this opportunity isn't seized 
then the whole peace process could unravel. David Trimble's Ulster Unionists 
may feel they can no longer sit in government with Sinn Fein if there's 
no further progress on decommissioning. And if the institutions of the 
Good Friday Agreement are suspended, then it could be more difficult than 
ever before to resurrect them. A rustic scene that could be straight out 
of  the home counties. But as this quiet country lane is in Northern Ireland, 
Henry McElroy's worries  aren't of a purely agricultural nature. He's one 
of fifteen members of the South Armagh farmers and residents association. 
This pressure group say they have no links to Sinn Fein but, like that 
party, they want a very visible British military presence in the border 
areas cut back, and the network of army watchtowers dismantled.

HENRY MCELROY:                My message down here in 
the border counties  straight to Tony Blair is take charge of the peace 
process and pull these obstacles here down -that's it.

WATSON:                    Hopes for peace have been 
heightened by the continued IRA ceasefire but the army say they must remain 
vigilant. Just a week ago, a one thousand pound bomb -twice the size of 
the one which devastated Omagh - was found in rural South Armagh, planted 
by dissident republicans. The security forces say while a threat remains, 
at least some of the watchtowers must stay.  Senior security sources have 
confirmed that they are willing to reduce the British Army presence in 
Northern Ireland still further -  just so long as the IRA makes much more 
progress towards decomissioning. But this wouldn't involve the actual handing 
over of weapons. Instead, if the IRA would have to put them beyond use, 
for example but concreting over their arms dumps, or pouring concrete over 
the weapons themselves, then this would be interpreted as a substantial 
reduction in the IRA threat. Then, in turn, the British military presence 
could be scaled down.  But all this is dependent on  timing and trust - 
both present here at Hillsborough last May when a detailed deal was struck. 
 First the IRA announced that they would contact General de Chastelain's 
commission on decommissioning. Then the RUC announced the timetable for 
the closure of some military bases.  After that, the inspection of some 
IRA arms dumps by two international observers took place. Then, in due 
course,  the British military bases actually began to close. It's this 
sort of sequencing which the government  think can form the basis of a 
new deal. But Sinn Fein say the British government didn't fully keep to 
their side of the bargain last time and that could cause problems now.

MITCHELL MCLAUGHLIN MLA:         Tony Blair on behalf of the British 
Government spelt out a certain set of actions which was responded to within 
twenty-four hours by the IRA. Now quite clearly there was a degree of negotiation 
and choreography in that and that set out if you like the sequence of events. 
But what we got instead was resistance at very high level indeed within 
the British Army and probably within the political establishment which 
prevented demilitarisation as was described and intended presumably by 
Tony Blair.  

KEN MAGINNIS MP:            I talked directly to the Prime 
Minister, he said, 'I did not make any commitments on which I have reneged, 
what Sinn Fein suggest is not true.' He has said it as bluntly as that 
and I believe him.  I just think that Sinn Fein need wriggle room and they 
are taking more than they are entitled to.

WATSON:                    But a lot depends on interpretation. 
The former patrol base at Clonnaty Bridge, just two miles from the Irish 
Republic, was being dismantled by army engineers last week. But we understand 
an indicative timetable for the removal of army watchtowers in the border 
area, agreed to at Hillsborough last May, hasn't been fully adhered to. 
 And we've been told  the reasons include not only the threat from dissident 
Republicans, but also because the IRA's only contact with General de Chastelain's 
decommisioning body since May has been one solitary telephone call.  The 
government are keen to point out that they have moved first on what they 
call 'normalisation' and Sinn Fein call 'demilitarisation'.   When the 
IRA announced their first ceasefire in 1994 there were one hundred and 
five army bases in the province.  By the start of this year this had fallen 
to sixty-three. But there's been less progress on the lookout posts or 
watchtowers which line the border with the Irish Republic.  Of the fifteen 
which existed at the time of the first IRA ceasefire, thirteen are still 
in place.  The army say much more progress has been made in reducing troop 
numbers in the province over the same period. There were seventeen thousand 
troops in Northern Ireland but by the start of this year twelve thousand, 
six hundred remain. Meanwhile,  the IRA haven't handed over a single weapon.

SIR RONNIE FLANAGAN:            If they move in tangible ways 
whereby the overall threat is reduced, then we would welcome that, very 
warmly, and we would move very quickly imaginatively and progressively 
into make yet further steps along the road towards normalisation

WATSON:                    The IRA aren't quite as 
open as the army over revealing the number of volunteers or weapons at 
their disposal. But reliable estimates suggest they have in the region 
of  one thousand rifles, six hundred handguns, five hundred heavy machine 
guns and two and a half tons of the highly explosive substance, Semtex. 
 These estimates exclude numerous rocket launchers and mortars and of course 
the substantial arsenal of weapons now in the hands of dissident republicans.

FLANAGAN:                    If an organisation moved 
publicly to demonstrate that it no longer felt a need for such a capability, 
that it was reducing that capability, I have no doubt that that would be 
interpreted as a reduction in the overall threat. 

WATSON:                    There's been  a spate of 
sectarian attacks on Catholics recently - with anything from crude pipe 
bombs to bricks being used as weapons.  Individual members of the loyalist 
paramilitary group, the UDA, are thought to be responsible, but there are 
fears that the UDA itself may walk out of the peace process and that could 
make it more difficult for the IRA to put their own weapons beyond use. 
The RUC are well aware of the risks. 

FLANAGAN:                    I have no doubt that 
violence begets violence and we have seen that down through 30 years here. 
We have seen a vicious cycle, where one act of violence brings about a 
violent act of retaliation Undoubtedly the more these organisations degenerate 
into acts of violence, the more we move back towards that risk of going 
down a vicious downward spiral

WATSON:                    Loyalist paramilitaries 
have less extensive arsenals than the IRA but still have the capacity to 
pose a substantial threat. Estimates suggest they have 200 rifles, 300 
machine guns, 900 handguns and an unknown amount of explosives at their 
disposal.  So, against this grim backdrop, Tony Blair is keen to keep the 
pro-agreement parties together in government here at Stormont. But, sources 
say, he doesn't want an 'elastoplast' arrangement which won't cure the 
sort of underlying grievances which could contaminate a General Election 
campaign. So, this week, he will continue to press for a comprehensive 
deal on  decommissioning, demilitarization and policing. The hope is the 
deal will be just enough to keep the institutions here at Stormont functioning 
through a difficult General Election period. But if all that's on offer 
from the IRA is simply to resume contact with General de Chastelain's international 
commission on decommissioning then  problems will remain. The one thing 
that will unite the Ulster Unionist party is to say that this kind of move 
by the IRA just isn't enough. 

MAGINNIS:                    We would discourage government 
from using up its last cards before it sees something that is more than 
a social visit to General de Chastelain, tea and chocolate biscuits is 
not what we are talking about, we are talking about modalities that can 
immediately begin to be put into effect to get rid of illegal weapons. 
I am not, nor has the Ulster Unionist Party endeavored to say, it must 
be done exactly like this, or exactly like that. Half of it is a physical 
manifestation of intent, the other half, is a psychological change in IRA 
attitude. It's a promise for the future. It's a sign of what will be. 

WATSON:                     This woman hopes to become 
her party's candidate to replace Ken Maginnis when he stands down at the 
next election. But here in the border seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone, 
the Ulster Unionists fear a challenge from Ian Paisley's DUP.   So Arlene 
Foster wants her party  to take a tougher line on Republicans by  imposing 
new sanctions on Sinn Fein unless the IRA begins to hand over their weapons,

ARLENE FOSTER:                   We can step up the pressure, 
but if nothing has happened by March, for example, March was a date that 
was mentioned because its our annual general meeting in March, then I think 
we very firmly need to look at moving out of the executive.

MITCHELL:                    There may be no way back 
for David Trimble but it is my view that both governments could actually 
deliver on ninety, ninety-five per cent of the elements of the Good Friday 
Agreement and that there is an argument in that, that the Unionists would 
find it very much in their interest to be part of those political institutions 
not outside them.

WATSON:                    As if all that wasn't trouble 
enough,  Policing reforms in Northern Ireland could founder on the demands 
of the Nationalist SDLP. These include a new police badge, the closure 
of an interrogation centre and independent inquiries into the murders of 
three prominent nationalists.  And Sinn Fein have objections too. 

MITCHELL:                    We're all I think got 
very conscious of Nationalist public opinion, who have quite clearly, you 
know indisputably, have formed the view that this does not represent the 
new beginning in policing You know they're not impressed by an argument 
about fifty-fifty recruitment when you're talking about seventy recruits 
a year.  Thirty-five Catholics in a force of ten thousand former RUC officers. 


WATSON:                    The government want both 
Nationalists and Republicans to join a new cross community police board 
by April this year. Sinn Fein are suspicious and are unlikely to do so 
but the government hopes that at least they won't actively  discourage 
Catholics from becoming police officers and they've signaled privately 
that they may even offer concessions on scaling down the army presence 
in return.  But they know if the SDLP don't go further and join the police 
board itself, the reforms have little chance of success.

FLANAGAN:                     Policing to be fully 
effective has to be all about partnership. Now we are engaged in a whole 
range of partnerships right across communities, but if a very significant 
party like the SDLP actively decided to stay outside those arrangements, 
then it couldn't fully effectively work as it should.

MAGINNIS:                    Well, I think quite honestly 
if you look objectively at the SDLP, they are pretty pathetic as far as 
policing is concerned. Day and daily we hear them on demanding that the 
police might do this better, might do this, might do the other thing, and 
yet they are saying, but we won't support them.  Their argument, their 
case, doesn't stand up and I'll make a prediction;  SDLP will be on board. 
 I know they are running scared of Sinn Fein, but they will be on board 
because they know this society needs to be policed.

WATSON:                    Once the British government 
has met with the Irish government this Tuesday even  more pressure will 
be piled on the Pro-Agreement parties to ensure the peace process isn't 
the first victim of what will be a hard fought General Election campaign.