BBC On The Record - Broadcast: 21.01.01



==================================================================================== NB. THIS TRANSCRIPT WAS TYPED FROM A TRANSCRIPTION UNIT RECORDING AND NOT COPIED FROM AN ORIGINAL SCRIPT; BECAUSE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF MIS-HEARING AND THE DIFFICULTY, IN SOME CASES, OF IDENTIFYING INDIVIDUAL SPEAKERS, THE BBC CANNOT VOUCH FOR ITS ACCURACY ==================================================================================== ON THE RECORD RECORDED FROM TRANSMISSION: BBC ONE DATE: 21.01.01 ==================================================================================== JOHN HUMPHRYS: Good afternoon. The Tories have had a good time attacking the government, but can they convince us they're a government in waiting. I'll be asking the man who'll mastermind their campaign. The Northern Ireland peace process has stalled. I'll be talking to the man they hope can get it started again. And if the Scots give elderly people free care in old peoples homes, will the rest of the country have to follow their lead? That's after the news read by Fiona Bruce. NEWS HUMPHRYS: The government's been told it should provide free care for old people. But is it going to happen only in Scotland? And Northern Ireland's security arrangements are blocking the road to progress towards peace in the province. Can there be agreement in time to save the Belfast government from collapsing? JOHN HUMPHRYS: But first, politics on this side of the Irish Sea. It's been a good start to the year for the Conservative Party. They've scored a few hits against the government, they've had Tony Blair on the run - literally almost - and they've hit the jackpot with that five million pounds donation from Stuart Wheeler. Mr Wheeler said he wanted nothing in return, although now that's looking a little less certain. And the Conservatives still don't seem to be persuading the nation that they are the best people to run the country after the next Election. So how can they pull that off with only a few months to go. The man in charge of their campaign strategy is the Shadow Minister for the Cabinet, Andrew Lansley. Mr Lansley, good news for you this morning, better news I suppose in one sense because we've now got Mr Wheeler saying he is prepared to give you up to ten million pounds - would you welcome that? ANDREW LANSLEY: Well, good afternoon John. Certainly I'd welcome it because I hope that the Conservative Party will be able to be fully funded in order to have a highly effective campaign because I think people have been let down by this Labour Government, they want to see an alternative, I believe we can offer that alternative and I want us to have the fullest possible opportunity to present it. As it happens, I haven't even had the pleasure of meeting Mr Wheeler so I cannot say what is in his mind, if he wishes to support us to a greater extent then I think we would certainly welcome that. HUMPHRYS: Very, very big extent isn't it, potentially. I mean you are allowed to spend fifteen million pounds on the campaign, if he gave you ten million pounds that would be two thirds of it... LANSLEY: Yes it would be a great deal of money and it would be about as much as the trade unions give the Labour Party... HUMPHRYS: ...he's one man... LANSLEY: ..the trade unions get a lot in return and Mr Wheeler asked for nothing in return. As I say I'm responsible for the co-ordination of policy inside the Conservative Party, I haven't even met Mr Wheeler. It's also true to say that Lord Ashcroft, about whom the Labour Party said a great deal, gave considerably less to the Conservative Party than this and I have had no policy discussions with him either. So people are not coming to the Conservative Party and trying to tell us what our policy should be in return for donations, which is not the same with the Labour Party. HUMPHRYS: Well you say he wants nothing in return, in truth and you'll have read what he said in the Telegraph, the Sunday Telegraph this morning, I'll read you just in case you didn't...although I suspect you did. He now says that if he doesn't get the money, if he gives you all that money it will be conditional upon Mr Hague effectively remaining as the Leader of the Party, if Mr Clarke for instance became the Leader of the Party, then he wouldn't want to give you the money, if you changed radically your policy on Europe, then he wouldn't give you the money. So it's not quite true any longer is it to say that he doesn't want anything - he wants very very clear policy commitments from you. LANSLEY: No he's not asking for any policy commitments, he's expressing a view about the Conservative Party's policy and he's expressing a view about the leadership of the Conservative Party and I think anybody who listened to Mr Wheeler earlier in the week will know that he takes a very positive view of William Hague's leadership and I share that view. I think the Conservative Party does. Simple fact is the Conservative Party has a leader in William Hague who can win the next election, I believe will win the next Election. The issue of our future leadership therefore simply doesn't arise and as far as our policy is concerned, we've had this policy for a considerable time. We fought the European Election on this policy in relation to Europe, we are going to fight the General Election on the policy. It is subscribed to by the great majority of people in this country. Mr Wheeler is not alone in thinking that the Conservative Party should fight to keep the pound. HUMPHRYS: That's entirely true but I'd always made the assumption that policy changes were made by your leader and by your party. Now we have a man who is prepared to finance your campaign, two thirds of your campaign, saying if you change it I won't give you the money. Now if that isn't saying I want something in return, then heaven knows what is. LANSLEY: The position is exactly the same if Mr Wheeler were giving us ten pounds or five million pounds, it doesn't change at all... HUMPHRYS: ..oh come on...two thirds - ten million pounds.. LANSLEY: Michael Ashcroft has given us money in the past. He has never asked for anything... HUMPHRYS: ..now Lord Ashcroft by the way... LANSLEY: ...Lord Ashcroft, fine.. HUMPHRYS: ..yes, one wonders whether there might have been a connection there... LANSLEY: ...a very successful businessman who runs a very successful business and indeed has supported very many charities, including Crimestoppers.. HUMPHRYS: ...and got a peerage... LANSLEY: ...and has become a peer, fine. Mr Wheeler we know is asking for nothing and is expressing his views. Mr Wheeler does not have to be somebody who has no views. The point is that the Conservative Party has consistently said, and it continues to be the same, that we will never change our policy in response to donations, we will always set our policy according to our view of what is right for the country. That is what we have done in relation to Europe, we determine our policy, we don't do it in response to donations. I'm afraid all the evidence suggests that the Labour Party not only take money from the trade unions, who buy votes, at Labour Party conferences, but in relation to the Formula One donation we even know that the Labour Party take donations that appear on the face of it to influence their policy. HUMPHRYS: Well indeed, they've taken some large donations, they had as we know, three two million pound donations earlier this year. After the first of those of donations, you said and I quote "this highlights strongly the need for a broader base of party funding." LANSLEY: I said that and I still believe that. Let me explain why I said it because the Labour Party, there was a degree of hypocrisy in the Labour Party's approach because they were the ones who were criticising large donations in relation to Michael Ashcroft in the first instance, even though Lord Lord Sainsbury who is a Labour Minister, has now, I think if I count it correctly, given them something like seven million pounds in total. Yet they were also the ones the Labour Government who did not take forward the Neill Committee recommendation that there should be tax relief for small donations to political parties. We supported that tax relief proposal from the Neill Committee, Labour blocked it in Parliament. They should have accepted that the Committee on Standards in Public Life had undertaken an enquiry, put forward a package of proposals, accepted the whole package and that would have enabled all of us, all political parties to attract more successfully a large number of small donations, which is absolutely our hope and intention. HUMPHRYS: So you are quite happy to have your entire campaign, the whole campaign, all fifteen million... LANSLEY: ..all we know is this five million pounds that Mr Wheeler has committed... HUMPHRYS: ..five million pounds that he's committed, ten million pounds, up to ten million pounds he's said... LANSLEY: ..he may or he may not, that's up to him. HUMPHRYS: ..and the rest of it from a group including Lord Ashcroft, a group of party treasurers who are themselves pretty well heeled. So you are perfectly happy... LANSLEY: ..the party treasurers have improved substantially the extent to which we are receiving money from a range of smaller donations, people in the sort of one thousand to five to ten thousand... HUMPHRYS: ..your membership has actually fallen hasn't it.. LANSLEY: ..no it hasn't, it's gone up... HUMPHRYS: ...it's dropped from four hundred thousand to three hundred thousand. LANSLEY: When was it four hundred thousand? Well before the last election. It's increased since the last election..... HUMPHRYS: ....when you last told us it was which was in 1997. LANSLEY: Well it's increased since the last election and the donations....... HUMPHRYS: Well that isn't what your figures say... LANSLEY: ..... the donations to the party from people who are giving us much lesser sums, has gone up by about threefold. Michael Ashcroft and his team of treasurers have been very successful at increasing the number of smaller donors. But elections are expensive things and a fifteen million pound limit is something that - if that's what the limit is and we'll wait to hear from the Home Office - but we would certainly hope to have a fully funded campaign within that limit. HUMPHRYS: I shouldn't think you'd have any problem at all. Ten million from one, five million from another. But anyway, there you are. Let's see if you're going to be as effective at getting votes as you are at getting money in because you are having problems. I know that politicians always say "don't believe the opinion polls", nonetheless they're pretty devastating. We had Ken Clarke saying just a few days ago that you have to build and I quote his words, "a positive appeal and connect with solid policies." There is no clarity in your policies - you have to - this is me saying it now not him, this isn't the bit that he said. He said the early bit, "you've got to look", he says, "you've got to look like a government in waiting"- that is what HE says you've got to look like. Now, given that you are what - a few months away, three months away from an election? You don't yet look like a government in waiting, you have a mighty big problem don't you, a mighty big hill to climb. LANSLEY: That might be your opinion John but I don't think it's the opinion of many other people. HUMPHRYS: Don't you think you should look like one already? LANSLEY: I think we do. I think the last party conference was exactly what we were setting out to do and since it we've added substantially to our policy proposals. I think the Conservative Party in opposition have presented more policy content, substantive positive policy content for what we would do in government than any opposition has ever done. I mean let's look at the Labour Party before the last election. The labour Party before the last election said, 'Oh we'll have an integrated transport policy', and everybody said, 'oh that sounds like a good thing', and after the election it turned out there was nothing there at all. It ended up with a document some months later which included sixty-three questions and we know in fact that their transport policy has ended in chaos. HUMPHRYS: Can you talk about your rather than theirs. That's why your here. LANSLEY: Okay. And Ken Clarke went on in the same speech to talk about our education policy, for example. I mean Labour said that education was their top priority and we've got a teacher supply crisis and schools that are burdened with red tape and wondering where on earth the money has gone and where the teachers are? And Ken Clarke himself commended our policy in relation to free schools, that we can get money directly into the schools so that people will see where the money is going. That the money will be provided to education and not just to the education budgets in the department up in Whitehall but into schools. HUMPHRYS: Oh, I didn't say he didn't like any of your policies he just said you're not connecting, or at least he implied that you're not connecting with solid policies. And one of the problems, I assume, that he is considering, he is looking at, is this whole area of public spending: You talk about education, how you're committed on education, you're committed to spending as much on education as the Tories, you're committed to spending as much on health as the Tories, but you are going to spend - as Labour - but you are going to spend less overall? LANSLEY: Indeed. HUMPREYS: Indeed. Eight billion pounds less. At least that's hence...... LANSLEY: ....two years...... HUMPHRYS: The problem with this is that you haven't actually told us where you're going to save a very very large amount of money - eight billion pounds...... LANSLEY: In fact we've told you, by stages, a great deal about this. In fact we've gone through the same process that government goes through except we've had the courage to do it in the open rather than in secret. Every government says there is a responsible limit to public expenditure and they set a target. They then make sure that they review public expenditure and they look for reforms that will deliver that target while committing resources, additional resources to priority areas. So for example indeed we are going to be committed to very substantial increases in health and schools and transport and police services so that those can be delivered, not only in terms of the resources but obviously also in terms of the way in which they are managed to be more effective than this government has done. That means that we do have to make savings elsewhere if we're to meet our targets and we've said a lot about that, for example, in my own area I have made it clear that whereas before the last election Conservative Governments held the cost of administering Whitehall Departments level in cash terms, they've gone up by two billion pounds over the last three years and over the next three years we will take most of that increase out of additional administration in central government departments. David Willetts in the Social Security budget has shown how four hundred million pounds plus can be saved by reforms to housing benefit administration. Our 'Can Work - Must Work' guarantee, not like Labour do which is a sort of if you can work you ought to have an interview about the possibility of working at some time in the future, but if you can work you must work - that delivers substantial savings in the Social Security budget as well. For example, in the last few days we've published a proposal, which I think is radical and exciting for endowing the universities by selling the student loan book and at the same time not only can we save public expenditure but we can deliver a better deal for students so that students have better payment terms and are able not to have to repay student loans until they're earning at least twenty thousand pounds. HUMPHRYS: Let's go back to the overall total. You have accounted, it seems, for about five billion, five point three billion pounds, and some of those figures look a bit dodgy to an awful lot of people, or at least, rather optimistic, let's put it like this. You still haven't accounted for the rest of it and you don't have very long to go, and it begins to look rather as if, it isn't you won't tell us, but you don't know yourselves, so therefore you can't tell us. LANSLEY: No, it's quite, it's quite the opposite, actually. HUMPHRYS: Well, here's your opportunity, tell us where the rest is coming from LANSLEY: We do know, and in fact, in a matter of days, not weeks and months, but a matter of days, we will be able to set out, in detail, how we have met the eight billion target. HUMPHRYS: Why can't you do it now? LANSLEY: I'm not going to do it now, because I don't plan to make our announcements on your programme, with great respect to you John, but we do know, we have known for some time how we wanted to reform public expenditure, but what is significant is that, instead of saying, we have a plan for cutting public expenditure, what we wanted to do was to show that each of our proposals, some of the ones I have been talking about, for example this morning, Peter Ainsworth has been talking about how we're proposing to privatise Channel Four, and indeed use the Lottery Distribution Fund to endow museums and galleries and other cultural organisations... HUMPHRYS: ...upset Channel Four that will... LANSLEY: ...it has, it has, of course it may upset Channel Four but actually it's the best course for them too, as it turns out. I think ITV will tell you, it's perfectly capable of running a very successful broadcasting organisation ... HUMPHRYS: ...are we going to end up like Channel Five are we... LANSLEY: ...with public service broadcasting... HUMPHRYS: ...trying to make money... LANSLEY: ...no, I said like ITV, you can deliver a public service remit inside the private sector and they will do that - but the point is, that also saves public expenditure. Now I wanted, we all wanted these proposals to be seen for their own merits, and that has happened over the last few weeks. Now the time will come shortly where Michael Portillo and William Hague will therefore be able to say, we have reformed public expenditure. We are still committed to substantial increase in priority services, but we can meet those within a responsible limit for public expenditure overall, because there is a big economic issue at the heart of this. It will not do for Gordon Brown to promise to spend seventy-one billion pound extra over the next three years on the assumption that it is acceptable for public expenditure to continue to rise much faster than the growth of the economy as a whole. Ours is the prudent limit, not to increase public expenditure but beyond the growth of the economy. That means just over sixty-billion pound extra for public expenditure. Nobody in their right mind wouldn't believe that the Conservative Party on that basis isn't committed to increasing public expenditure dramatically, but on the priorities and within a prudent limit. HUMPHRYS: But if you look at the biggest chunk of that saving, at least, that's how I worked it out from what you were saying just then, you're talking about the money that Whitehall spends on running government, I think you talk...well, one-point-eight-billion pounds. Yeah. LANSLEY: ...it's a big, it's a big change. HUMPHRYS: ...it's a big chunk. The reason that that money is being spent, and you took this view when you were in government, you actually used the expression, spending to save, is that if you spend a lot of money in certain areas, like on Customs and Excise, Inland Revenue, and so on and so on, you will actually save a lot of money for the future. You were persuaded of that when you were in government, you intended actually...yes, you shake your head, but in nineteen-ninety-seven you had plans to spend more in nineteen-ninety-eight and nineteen-ninety-nine, now you're saying, well actually, we're gonna spend less, so what you're doing is robbing Peter to pay Paul. LANSLEY: Well, we could go back and we could look at Kenneth Clarke's proposals for public expenditure... HUMPHRYS: ...I did it... LANSLEY: ...in nineteen-ninety-seven, and that would not have included, did not include at that time, a two-billion-pound increase in the costs of running central government departments, it did not include an increase in the number of civil servants, and the number of civil servants has gone up by nine-thousand. But as you ask the question, let me make it clear that that is why we have said that we want to reduce the cost of administering government departments by one-point-eight-billion, not by the whole two-billion, because we have specifically left in the figures one or two areas, for example, those who are responsible for case-work on immigration and asylum decisions, or indeed, as you mentioned it, those in Customs and Excise and Inland Revenue who are responsible for some of those anti-abuse, anti-avoidance measures, so we put, we've left some of those things there that were precisely some of the priorities that were indeed being pursued two or three years ago, so we've, we're not acting irresponsibly, we're acting on the basis of good government. HUMPHRYS: Police numbers? I mean last, when you were in power you actually cut the number of police... BOTH SPEAKING TOGETHER LANSLEY: ...from nineteen-seventy-nine they went up by sixteen-thousand... HUMPHRYS: ...but you are committed to increasing them this time... LANSLEY: ...take the last, take the last... HUMPHRYS: ...just very quickly, you are committed to spending the money to increase the numbers of police on the streets. LANSLEY: Indeed. HUMPHRYS: Absolute commitment, no question about that? LANSLEY: We are going to reverse Labour's cut in the number of police which at presently, two-and-a-half-thousand... HUMPHRYS: ...and you'll spend more than Labour... LANSLEY: ...two-and-a-half-thousand fewer police..well hang on a minute, we, we do not necessarily have to increase the budget of the Home Office in order to achieve that because... HUMPHRYS: ...but hang on, hang on... LANSLEY: ...because police is only one element of the Home Office budget... HUMPHRYS: ...yes, yes, but if you're gonna have more Police and... LANSLEY: ...we had more police three years ago. Are you telling me that we were spending more then? HUMPHRYS: I'm telling you actually had after, after a full term of the major parliament you had fewer police at the end of it than you had at the beginning of it. LANSLEY: From where we are now, to three-years hence, there will be substantial increases in the police budget under a Conservative Government... HUMPHRYS: ...right, and you will have to take money from the other Home Office, the rest of the Home Office budget to pay for those police, that's what you're telling me. LANSLEY: No, but there's some money, there's some money already in the Home Office budget, but you actually find it's not necessarily going to the right priorities, for example, they've, they've got some very large increases in, in some of the Criminal Justice changes they're talking about, which are not about, not about improving our ability to tackle crime, what is vital is that we actually get money into the front line because the deterrence of crime and the detection of crime, depends crucially upon the presence of Police on the streets, the public know that, it's common-sense, we know that, and we're going to do it. HUMPHRYS: Sure, but if it means taking money from the rest of it, rest of, of the policy, of, of the Home Office budget, you will do so. LANSLEY: If there are savings elsewhere in the Home Office budget. HUMPHRYS: Well... LANSLEY: You can reform the asylum system, and we have proposals to reform the asylum system which in that time-frame can deliver you substantial savings. HUMPHRYS: Well, and you'll tell us all the rest of the savings within the next few days. Andrew Lansley, thank you very much indeed. LANSLEY: Thank you. HUMPHRYS: This week the Scottish Labour Party was supposed to tell elderly people in Scotland that if they needed personal care in old people's homes the taxpayer would foot the bill. That's what the Scotland Commission - the Sutherland Commission - has recommended for the whole country. But the government has not exactly rushed to embrace the idea. If it does happen in Scotland, but not in England and Wales, it would prove very difficult for them indeed. David Grossman reports. DAVID GROSSMAN: Getting old ain't what it used to be. We're now living longer and stronger than ever before. The Paisley Piranhas is a Seniors ice hockey team, not for them a stroll in the park to feed the ducks. Believe it or not, some of the players crashing round the ice and are well into their seventies. In a society increasingly obsessed by youth, they prove that retiring from work needn't mean retiring from life. These players are obviously in splendid health, but one concern that worries us all is what will happen if we can no longer take care of ourselves. At the last election, Labour picked up votes from the middle classes by promising they'd no longer have to sell their homes to pay for long term care. Now though, the government at Westminster is pleading a lack of funds. Here in Scotland, Henry McLeish's Scottish Executive seems to have found the money. Mr McLeish's expected generosity is threatening to make Mr Blair look uncaring and miserly just before a General Election. DAVID HINCHLIFFE MP: I believe that the long term care issue will possibly prove in the very near future, to be another seventy-five p issue for the Labour Party and I worry about that because when people realise that we have this unfairness, we have this problem that won't be easily resolved, then there will be great pressure on Labour MPs in particular to do something about it. ACTUALITY GROSSMAN: Giving thanks for plenty at a retirement home in Edinburgh. Few issues are more emotive than how much of society's wealth is distributed to our oldest citizens. Tony Blair promised to end the practice whereby the only way the elderly could get long term care was to sell their homes. He set up a Royal Commission to look at how best to deliver on that promise. Headed by Sir Stewart Sutherland, an Edinburgh academic, the commission concluded that only the board and lodging element of care, the so called hotel costs, should be means tested. Everything else, it said, should be free. SIR STEWART SUTHERLAND: Right at the core of this was the belief that people who are in need should have that need met. This is basic in all of the up bringing I've ever had. It's basic in the way in which people in our country think, I have no doubt, meet that need. We don't for example say to somebody when they come in to hospital in need of a operation for lung cancer, how many fags a day did you smoke, this is your own fault. We actually see them as someone in need and we respond as a humane civilised society. GROSSMAN: In Scotland, health is one of the range of services now provided by the Scottish Parliament and Scottish Executive. When Scotland's first minister, Henry McLeish took office, he gave his backing to delivering the full Sutherland Commission recommendations, much to the delight of his Liberal Democrat coalition partners. Indeed all the parties in the Scottish Parliament agree with him. Scotland's health minister is due to make an announcement on Wednesday. MARGARET SMITH MSP: We've got a long tradition in terms of wanting to see good funding of public services and decent social services available to our population. And I think what the Scottish Parliament allows us to do is to actually feed in to the experts working in the fields, to talk to carers, to talk to professionals and say to them, if you have the money available to you and you now have a Parliament available here to make these things happen, how would you improve the services to the people of Scotland, how do you think we should proceed? And we've done that with long term care, we've taken the evidence, we've talked to the people involved and they're saying to us, go ahead, implement this in full. GROSSMAN: Such a move would be very popular in Scotland. Angus Gillon is a frequent visitor to the Edinburgh care home, where is father is a resident. The Reverend Blair Gillon may be ninety-four and retired from the church but he continues to study. What he can't do is take care of himself and paying for help is now eating away at his capital. ANGUS GILLON: In order to pay for his care, my father is using all his pension income, he's using the interest from the capital from the sale of his house and in addition, there is a small proportion of his capital, going simply to pay for him to reside here. Now, if any change were to come and some proportion of that were subsidised by the Scottish Executive, Scottish Parliament, or provided by the Scottish Parliament, I guess that that would make our lives and his life a little bit more comfortable because we could look further ahead to the future. At the moment he's becoming more dependent as you do as you get older and we're not sure what lies ahead. GROSSMAN: The prospect of having two different prescriptions for long term care north and south of the border puts Scotland's First Minister Henry McLeish in an awkward position. Tony Blair would far rather he opted for the same remedy as England and Wales - where spending on long term care has risen but is targeted on those most in need. The UK government fears that if Scotland goes ahead with the plan for free care, this fact will be lost, amid a flurry of unflattering comparisons to Scotland. But Edinburgh isn't Westminster. JOHN McALLION MSP: Oh Henry McLeish faces completely different political pressures from Tony Blair. We have the main opposition party, the SNP, pressing us from the left and they of course are demanding the full implementation of Sutherland. Even the Conservatives in Scotland are demanding the full implementation of Sutherland. And Henry really didn't have any political space to go to, other than agree with them because if he did then Labour would would lose out significantly in terms of the left of centre vote that tends to dominate in Scottish politics. GROSSMAN: Coming to see how the other half live - a coach-load of pensioners from the north-east of England on a visit to Scotland. This could become something of a promised land to pensioners from the rest of the UK. Although these visitors from the Durham Friendship Centre have come to see the famous buildings and beautiful scenery - they're also flashing a few admiring glances at the health-care system in Scotland. Another country where they do things differently. It's among people like this that the government could meet considerable hostility. If a day-trip over the border to Scotland reveals a health-care system that's managing to fund the full recommendations of the Royal Commission Report, there are plenty of voters in the rest of the UK who will want to know why they are apparently being left behind. FRANK HEDGES: If the Scots can afford it, then I'm quite sure that we can afford it in England. It can't be right that you pay into National Insurance for all your life, and then, because you have the bad luck to be somebody who needs long-term care, your small savings are eroded, completely eroded by paying for your long-term care. JOAN McELROY: I think it's very unfair. If they pay the same taxes as us, why can't we have the same benefit? And I don't see why I should have to sell my home to pay for care. I've worked hard to get a home and people who are on benefit all their lives are still going to get benefit, that I'm going to have to give up my home for. GROSSMAN: The reward for three hours on the bus is one of Edinburgh's finest views. The reward for a working life spent saving and paying taxes may now depend on the Blair government's distinction between types of care. In the future the NHS will only pay for nursing case, for example handing out medication. Other care, like help with dressing, will be called personal care and will be means tested. That's say critics, is completely unworkable. SIR STEWART SUTHERLAND: If it weren't so tragic, it would almost be a joke in the profession. How do you decide when a bath is a social bath and when it's a medical bath? It's absurd just to have to ask the question. But the current government plans will require that to asked and answered and charges made accordingly. They will have to set up a large bureaucracy to work out where the charges fall, who should pay, and then they've got to go and collect it. That will take a lot of money out of the actual provision of care into bureaucracy. HINCHLIFFE: I can see understandable anger, particularly where you are in the north of England, not that far from Scotland and over the border the policies are very distinct and different and in most people's perception a good deal fairer. I think that that will lead to pressure to bring about certain changes. It may indeed bring, bring about legal challenges at some point. GROSSMAN: A care assistant helps residents with their daily routine. The UK government's answer to the difficulty of drawing up legally robust definitions of nursing care and social care is to give that decision to nurses, so that for each case, an assessment would be made and the distinction not fixed but flexible. DR LIAM FOX MP: We don't have a problem with the government's judgement that there are better ways of using a large amount of money than extending the nursing care through to personal care, our worries with it are really with definition, on how, in terms of legislation, you can clearly define what is nursing care and what is personal care and how you would separate that out in practice. For example, would it create perverse incentives for nurses to actually say somethings were nursing care when they're really personal care, in other words, in order to make them free for patients? ACTUALITY GROSSMAN: Everyone likes a bit of a flutter - but Henry McLeish may well be gambling with his political future. He can't please both London and Scotland. He's already upset more than a few in Westminster by calling his Executive the Scottish Government. And the Scottish Parliament's already voted through an exemption from higher education tuition fees and is now finalising a huge pay-rise for its teachers. At Westminster, envious Labour MPs are beginning to grumble. HINCHLIFFE: There is already a good deal of concern among English MPs about the discrepancy between the funding levels and the ability for example, in terms of delivering community care packages between local authorities in England and local authorities in Scotland. I've personally raised this matter with the Chancellor who himself of course is a Scots MP, so he's a vested interest probably in retaining the advantage that Scotland's got. GROSSMAN: Henry McLeish though is a long way from winning any trophies. There's now speculation that he's about to back down under pressure from London. But that too would be risky. He needs the Liberal Democrats on side to control Parliament and many of them are now muttering darkly about breaking the coalition if he doesn't implement the Sutherland Report in full. For some of his own backbenchers the issue is now a matter of Scottish Labour's entire credibility. McALLION: Above all Henry McLeish has to be seen to be independent of Tony Blair and of the Labour Cabinet in Westminster and to be taking decisions because they make sense in the Scottish context, not because they make sense in the UK context. So that's a pressure that Henry's consistently under. Henry also has to take in to consideration that we are one party and we want to see Labour win as many Westminster seats as possible in Scotland. So we're not going to do anything stupid and foolish to put at risk Labour victories here in Scotland. But at the same time what would really put Labour victories at risk in Scotland would be the perception that the Scottish Labour Party was now run from London. If that perception started to gain ground in Scotland, Labour in Scotland would be in very serious trouble indeed. DR FOX: It was inevitable that they way the government pursued their devolution agenda, was going to lead to conflict between Edinburgh and London. We said all the way through, this was a recipe for conflict. It was a recipe for the potential break up of the United Kingdom and we're now seeing, when you've got the same party in power, in both the Scottish Parliament and Westminster that this tension is already arising, how much greater would that tension be if you had different parties in power and what would the consequences be for the country as a whole? GROSSMAN: It's hard to see how Labour can win. If Henry McLeish goes ahead with free long-term care now it will be embarrassing for Tony Blair and Labour in the rest of the UK. But if he doesn't, he'll risk humiliation and Labour could suffer at the polls in Scotland. The Royal Commission was meant to remove elderly care from the political melee, now devolution has put it right back in the fray. HUMPHRYS: David Grossman reporting there. The peace process in Northern Ireland has run into the buffers again. There's the very real chance that the First Minister, David Trimble, may be forced by his own party to pull the rug from under the Northern Ireland executive. It's happened once already. If it happens again that could be the end of devolved government in the Province with serious implications for the Good Friday Agreement. I'll be talking to the Deputy First Minister Seamus Mallon after this report from Iain Watson. IAIN WATSON: Northern Ireland's pro-agreement parties are in conflict - each has been fighting its corner in intense negotiations. The military presence has been reduced across the province, but that's not so obvious if you live in a border town such as Crossmaglen in South Armagh. Sinn Fein are demanding a further scaling down of the security forces; the usually moderate SDLP, won't yet give its backing to the reform of the policing service and the Unionists want to see a start made on decommissioning by the IRA. The government is keen to break this deadlock within the next ten days. There's a very narrow window of opportunity this month for any deal to be struck. That's because pretty soon, minds will be focussed on fighting the forthcoming local council elections here in Northern Ireland and the widely expected General Election in the spring and the danger is if this opportunity isn't seized then the whole peace process could unravel. David Trimble's Ulster Unionists may feel they can no longer sit in government with Sinn Fein if there's no further progress on decommissioning. And if the institutions of the Good Friday Agreement are suspended, then it could be more difficult than ever before to resurrect them. A rustic scene that could be straight out of the home counties. But as this quiet country lane is in Northern Ireland, Henry McElroy's worries aren't of a purely agricultural nature. He's one of fifteen members of the South Armagh farmers and residents association. This pressure group say they have no links to Sinn Fein but, like that party, they want a very visible British military presence in the border areas cut back, and the network of army watchtowers dismantled. HENRY MCELROY: My message down here in the border counties straight to Tony Blair is take charge of the peace process and pull these obstacles here down -that's it. WATSON: Hopes for peace have been heightened by the continued IRA ceasefire but the army say they must remain vigilant. Just a week ago, a one thousand pound bomb -twice the size of the one which devastated Omagh - was found in rural South Armagh, planted by dissident republicans. The security forces say while a threat remains, at least some of the watchtowers must stay. Senior security sources have confirmed that they are willing to reduce the British Army presence in Northern Ireland still further - just so long as the IRA makes much more progress towards decomissioning. But this wouldn't involve the actual handing over of weapons. Instead, if the IRA would have to put them beyond use, for example but concreting over their arms dumps, or pouring concrete over the weapons themselves, then this would be interpreted as a substantial reduction in the IRA threat. Then, in turn, the British military presence could be scaled down. But all this is dependent on timing and trust - both present here at Hillsborough last May when a detailed deal was struck. First the IRA announced that they would contact General de Chastelain's commission on decommissioning. Then the RUC announced the timetable for the closure of some military bases. After that, the inspection of some IRA arms dumps by two international observers took place. Then, in due course, the British military bases actually began to close. It's this sort of sequencing which the government think can form the basis of a new deal. But Sinn Fein say the British government didn't fully keep to their side of the bargain last time and that could cause problems now. MITCHELL MCLAUGHLIN MLA: Tony Blair on behalf of the British Government spelt out a certain set of actions which was responded to within twenty-four hours by the IRA. Now quite clearly there was a degree of negotiation and choreography in that and that set out if you like the sequence of events. But what we got instead was resistance at very high level indeed within the British Army and probably within the political establishment which prevented demilitarisation as was described and intended presumably by Tony Blair. KEN MAGINNIS MP: I talked directly to the Prime Minister, he said, 'I did not make any commitments on which I have reneged, what Sinn Fein suggest is not true.' He has said it as bluntly as that and I believe him. I just think that Sinn Fein need wriggle room and they are taking more than they are entitled to. WATSON: But a lot depends on interpretation. The former patrol base at Clonnaty Bridge, just two miles from the Irish Republic, was being dismantled by army engineers last week. But we understand an indicative timetable for the removal of army watchtowers in the border area, agreed to at Hillsborough last May, hasn't been fully adhered to. And we've been told the reasons include not only the threat from dissident Republicans, but also because the IRA's only contact with General de Chastelain's decommisioning body since May has been one solitary telephone call. The government are keen to point out that they have moved first on what they call 'normalisation' and Sinn Fein call 'demilitarisation'. When the IRA announced their first ceasefire in 1994 there were one hundred and five army bases in the province. By the start of this year this had fallen to sixty-three. But there's been less progress on the lookout posts or watchtowers which line the border with the Irish Republic. Of the fifteen which existed at the time of the first IRA ceasefire, thirteen are still in place. The army say much more progress has been made in reducing troop numbers in the province over the same period. There were seventeen thousand troops in Northern Ireland but by the start of this year twelve thousand, six hundred remain. Meanwhile, the IRA haven't handed over a single weapon. SIR RONNIE FLANAGAN: If they move in tangible ways whereby the overall threat is reduced, then we would welcome that, very warmly, and we would move very quickly imaginatively and progressively into make yet further steps along the road towards normalisation WATSON: The IRA aren't quite as open as the army over revealing the number of volunteers or weapons at their disposal. But reliable estimates suggest they have in the region of one thousand rifles, six hundred handguns, five hundred heavy machine guns and two and a half tons of the highly explosive substance, Semtex. These estimates exclude numerous rocket launchers and mortars and of course the substantial arsenal of weapons now in the hands of dissident republicans. FLANAGAN: If an organisation moved publicly to demonstrate that it no longer felt a need for such a capability, that it was reducing that capability, I have no doubt that that would be interpreted as a reduction in the overall threat. WATSON: There's been a spate of sectarian attacks on Catholics recently - with anything from crude pipe bombs to bricks being used as weapons. Individual members of the loyalist paramilitary group, the UDA, are thought to be responsible, but there are fears that the UDA itself may walk out of the peace process and that could make it more difficult for the IRA to put their own weapons beyond use. The RUC are well aware of the risks. FLANAGAN: I have no doubt that violence begets violence and we have seen that down through 30 years here. We have seen a vicious cycle, where one act of violence brings about a violent act of retaliation Undoubtedly the more these organisations degenerate into acts of violence, the more we move back towards that risk of going down a vicious downward spiral WATSON: Loyalist paramilitaries have less extensive arsenals than the IRA but still have the capacity to pose a substantial threat. Estimates suggest they have 200 rifles, 300 machine guns, 900 handguns and an unknown amount of explosives at their disposal. So, against this grim backdrop, Tony Blair is keen to keep the pro-agreement parties together in government here at Stormont. But, sources say, he doesn't want an 'elastoplast' arrangement which won't cure the sort of underlying grievances which could contaminate a General Election campaign. So, this week, he will continue to press for a comprehensive deal on decommissioning, demilitarization and policing. The hope is the deal will be just enough to keep the institutions here at Stormont functioning through a difficult General Election period. But if all that's on offer from the IRA is simply to resume contact with General de Chastelain's international commission on decommissioning then problems will remain. The one thing that will unite the Ulster Unionist party is to say that this kind of move by the IRA just isn't enough. MAGINNIS: We would discourage government from using up its last cards before it sees something that is more than a social visit to General de Chastelain, tea and chocolate biscuits is not what we are talking about, we are talking about modalities that can immediately begin to be put into effect to get rid of illegal weapons. I am not, nor has the Ulster Unionist Party endeavored to say, it must be done exactly like this, or exactly like that. Half of it is a physical manifestation of intent, the other half, is a psychological change in IRA attitude. It's a promise for the future. It's a sign of what will be. WATSON: This woman hopes to become her party's candidate to replace Ken Maginnis when he stands down at the next election. But here in the border seat of Fermanagh and South Tyrone, the Ulster Unionists fear a challenge from Ian Paisley's DUP. So Arlene Foster wants her party to take a tougher line on Republicans by imposing new sanctions on Sinn Fein unless the IRA begins to hand over their weapons, ARLENE FOSTER: We can step up the pressure, but if nothing has happened by March, for example, March was a date that was mentioned because its our annual general meeting in March, then I think we very firmly need to look at moving out of the executive. MITCHELL: There may be no way back for David Trimble but it is my view that both governments could actually deliver on ninety, ninety-five per cent of the elements of the Good Friday Agreement and that there is an argument in that, that the Unionists would find it very much in their interest to be part of those political institutions not outside them. WATSON: As if all that wasn't trouble enough, Policing reforms in Northern Ireland could founder on the demands of the Nationalist SDLP. These include a new police badge, the closure of an interrogation centre and independent inquiries into the murders of three prominent nationalists. And Sinn Fein have objections too. MITCHELL: We're all I think got very conscious of Nationalist public opinion, who have quite clearly, you know indisputably, have formed the view that this does not represent the new beginning in policing You know they're not impressed by an argument about fifty-fifty recruitment when you're talking about seventy recruits a year. Thirty-five Catholics in a force of ten thousand former RUC officers. WATSON: The government want both Nationalists and Republicans to join a new cross community police board by April this year. Sinn Fein are suspicious and are unlikely to do so but the government hopes that at least they won't actively discourage Catholics from becoming police officers and they've signaled privately that they may even offer concessions on scaling down the army presence in return. But they know if the SDLP don't go further and join the police board itself, the reforms have little chance of success. FLANAGAN: Policing to be fully effective has to be all about partnership. Now we are engaged in a whole range of partnerships right across communities, but if a very significant party like the SDLP actively decided to stay outside those arrangements, then it couldn't fully effectively work as it should. MAGINNIS: Well, I think quite honestly if you look objectively at the SDLP, they are pretty pathetic as far as policing is concerned. Day and daily we hear them on demanding that the police might do this better, might do this, might do the other thing, and yet they are saying, but we won't support them. Their argument, their case, doesn't stand up and I'll make a prediction; SDLP will be on board. I know they are running scared of Sinn Fein, but they will be on board because they know this society needs to be policed. WATSON: Once the British government has met with the Irish government this Tuesday even more pressure will be piled on the Pro-Agreement parties to ensure the peace process isn't the first victim of what will be a hard fought General Election campaign. HUMPHRYS: Iain Watson reporting there. JOHN HUMPHRYS: Seamus Mallon, the process, obviously, is dangerously stalled as we speak and it does seem that you, as far as policing is concerned, you hold the key to getting it started again. Do you accept that? MALLON: Well I believe and I have always believed our party has said it consistently, policing is key in this whole equation. It's key not just because of its factor within the community because of this central part of the Good Friday Agreement, it derived from the Good Friday Agreement and because it is so key, because it is so crucial, that is the reason why we must get all of the arrangements right. Now would it were the position that after the legislation in Westminster that everything had been dealt with. Unfortunately for tactical reasons the government left some of those areas undecided in a way which I think was very unsatisfactory and the implementation plan that will follow that legislation and mirror it, that still has to be decided fully and it is within that type of ambit that our party is trying to get the best type of situation because we know and we know very clearly despite the pressure and despite some of the propaganda there's only going to be one opportunity of getting this very crucial element right and that is now. HUMPHRYS: And it seems that you have two sets of objections: If I can put them this way - principled and practical. They will seem to many people not familiar perhaps with the situation in Northern Ireland, they will seem very minor, looked at from this perspective. I mean if you look at the principled objections - you don't like the cap badge, the fact that there is no national symbol, nationalist symbol on the cap badge. You don't like the title - Royal Ulster Constabulary to be included in the title deeds of the police force. They will seem to many people not to be worth risking this whole process for. MALLON: But we're not doing that. The reality is that those were matters that were recommended in the Pattern report. Pattern was very and absolutely clear about those. He said exactly what should be done. Now unfortunately those were pre-empted in terms of the legislation by the way in which the legislation was drafted. And you know you may say, and I would agree with you, that at the end of the day, those aren't very important key strategic matters but if you're trying to change the involvement in a highly political situation here with the overtones that policing has, then those are the public manifestations for young people who might be joining the police force, that is the public manifestation of change that they will see. They will not go into the detail of legislation, they will know what they see in relation to police stations, in relation to symbols. And I put it to you this way and I put it consistently to the British Government - there are matters of great substance that have to be resolved. These matters of symbols are crucially important in their manifestation to people that there is a change, that there is a new police service and it is a type of police service that young people in the nationalist community can identify with. Now that's what I'm asking people to realise. That is one element of it and I believe if we could get a position where there is agreement about the policing board, I believe that in effect we can possibly, possibly have those matters resolved. But there are other substantive serious matters deriving from the gaps in the legislation. Those must be dealt with too. We want to get them done now and I'll tell you exactly why we want to get them done now, because the worst thing that could possibly happen in the type of fluid political situation we have is for this all to stall or to hit the rocks in six months' time, eight months' time, five months' time because there would be no way back, policing would be enormously damaged, the political process would take a hit, a huge hit in relation to this and we would not get the policing issue resolved. So what I again repeat - let's get down, as we are doing with the British Government and with the other parties, let's see how we can resolve these matters so that when, if the SDLP can go onto that policing board, it does it for good, it does it for real and does it in such a way that it can effect the change we need. HUMPHRYS: You say, 'does it for good' but could you not join the board for a trial period, let's say three months, and say, 'look, these are the things we want sorted out because there are practical things as well as the principled things that talked about there. If they are not sorted out during that time then we will leave'. So you can test their will if you like and if you're satisfied that everything is going to be fine. But you run great risks at this stage by not joining the board at all don't you? That's the danger. MALLON: But let me tell you the danger of the course that you're possibly suggesting. It is this: That will do exactly to the process of policing what the Ulster Unionist Party has done to the political process. Pulling out, leaving it, threatening to leave it, weakening it, that is not an option in my view, because that would have an enormously damaging effect on the psychology of policing. It would actually, in my view wreck the entire political process and it would damage the collectivity that's needed within the yes parties to actually sustain the Good Friday Agreement. Now it is a very easy option for the SDLP, it's very attractive you know because, you'd get yourself out from under the pressure and you have some kind of escape hatch. But I happen to believe, and I take this matter so seriously, I believe there isn't an escape hatch on this. I think policing is so central to any society, that especially a society like ours that's divided, that in effect there cannot be the luxury of escape hatches, one minute we're out, one minute we're threatening to leave, one minute we leave, then how do we get back? How do you get things back on the rails? And I think if there's one good thing, and I hope there'll be many good things come out of the present negotiations is the realisation by others, and I include the government's, that that option is one actually which would be totally debilitating for the political parties, certainly for the political process, and most definitely for the prospects of good policing. HUMPHRYS: But it sounds from what you're saying as though there is the very real possibility that this Board, the Police Board, will not be set up by April. Is that what you're suggesting? MALLON: Well, that's a matter of how we get the resolution within the next week, ten days. HUMPHRYS: Well, what's your view. I mean, do you believe it's going to happen, at this stage? MALLON: It could happen. I want it to happen quickly, because I know the steps that are involved here, in terms of getting stability within the entire political process, I want that to happen. We have put, I believe, very reasonable requests to the Prime Minister and the Secretary of State, we are waiting for their response to it, and when we get that response we know how seriously they are taking the reality of our position. Let me put it this way again, the easiest thing would have been for the SDLP is at any point, maybe two months, three months ago, say, 'yeah sure, here are three people for the Policing Board, but if things don't go well, we'll take them off, and we have that type of option.' Now I don't believe that's an option. We want to do this seriously, we want to do it well, and we want to do it for good, for that reason, we must get it right. HUMPHRYS: Seamus Mallon, thank you very much indeed. And that's it for this week. I'll be talking to the Transport Minister, Lord MacDonald next Sunday, for those of you on the Internet, don't forget about our web-site, until the same time next week, good-afternoon. 22 FoLdEd
NB. This transcript was typed from a transcription unit recording and not copied from an original script. Because of the possibility of mis-hearing and the difficulty, in some cases, of identifying individual speakers, the BBC cannot vouch for its accuracy.