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PAUL WILENIUS: There's something mediaeval
about the desperate battle against foot and mouth disease. Britain is
trying to burn a deadly contagion out of the land, putting more than a
million animals to the torch. But it's not just the livelihoods of farmers
which face ruin, it's also the intricate planning of the nation's politicians.
Tony Blair is hoping that decisive action, like burning infected livestock
on this farm in Devon, will defeat foot and mouth disease. But there are
fears it could still take a long time before it's finally eradicated, and
it could be very costly. And now he's under increasing pressure to delay
the next election, if the crisis deepens.
ANDREW SCOTT: This is one of the most serious
outbreaks this country's endured, I think, of foot and mouth, and certainly
will be by the time we're at the end of it.
GORDON PRENTICE MP: For myself, just as a humble
foot soldier, I would feel very uncomfortable about embarking on a general
election campaign, when I could smell the smoke from burning carcasses
drifting across my constituency. That wouldn't be too good.
WILENIUS: Even on the loneliest
parts of high Dartmoor fears hangs in the air. Devon is gripped by foot
and mouth, and farmers fear their prime flocks are at risk from the disease.
Following the BSE disaster and the outbreak of swine fever among pigs,
the shutdown of large parts of the industry is the last thing British farming
needed. Here on Greenwell Farm near Yelverton, which is so far disease
free, the farmer is so terrified of the deadly virus he has sealed off
his own farm.
ARNOLD COLE: If you thought you were going
to walk in to a busy pub and come out with cancer or flu, that's how worried
we are. We don't want to be in that pub and, and you know I mean what,
what, what can we do. It's in the lap of the gods and the government to
get on top of this disease as rapidly as possible and get it stopped.
BRIDGET COLE: Our income has gone. We've
had twenty fat bullocks here that, that you know, should be gone away.
We're still feeding them. They're costing us money. We've got no income
coming in. You know, and no foreseeable income at all coming in. What
are we going to live on? I also run a bed and breakfast business which
is, you know just stopped stone dead. We daren't let any visitors in. We've
got no income at all at the moment.
ARNOLD COLE: It's just like, you don't
know from one minute to the next when the, when that phone rings, is it
a friend ringing to say that, are you alright - or is it to say I've got
foot and mouth. You know, well, you don't know,
SCOTT: I think the course the disease
is running means that with this continuing rise of outbreaks the disease
will be felt and seen to get worse.
BEN GILL: I think the down-time,
down-stream consequences of this disease will mean that there'll be movement
restrictions on livestock certainly on the sheep sector for the foreseeable
future. Certainly the rest of this year. I'd be pleasantly surprised if
we are exporting sheep meat before the end of this year.
WILENIUS: But even that depends
on going ahead with the new wider cull of healthy sheep now proposed by
the Ministry of Agriculture, which is fiercely opposed by some rebellious
farmers facing the loss of hundreds of thousands of animals.
GILL: Now the choice is
blunt. Do you try and create a Cordon Sanitaire, and take stock out before
they're showing the symptoms of the disease, although could be harbouring
it? Or do you wait until they're harbouring it, and infecting more animals,
further afield? It's a very hard decision to take. That by taking more
animals out now, you could actually protect a bigger number of animals.
WILENIUS: But it isn't just the
farmers who've seen their incomes plummet. The tourist business across
Devon has been devastated. Small businesses, hotels, bars, shops and much
more have been shut down, as restrictions on walking keep tourists away.
The threat of five-thousand pound fines on people who defy the restrictions,
have had a huge impact. But also the calls by farmers to keep away from
the countryside, have pushed the region towards the brink of a catastrophe.
SIMON BRADLEY: Tourism across the South
West is worth something like six-billion pounds a year and employs two-hundred-and-twenty-five-thousand
people and those are direct jobs in tourism, so it's a huge part of our
regional economy, and tourism percolates down through every aspect of the
economy, so it's having a major impact in certain parts of the region.
ADAM SOUTHWELL: I employ ten staff in all. They've
been laid off. I've cancelled bookings worth about fourteen-thousand pounds,
that runs us till the beginning of April. If we have to consider going
in to Easter and beyond, which it looks like it's going to happen at the
moment, then I'm looking at doubling that figure.
ALEX WARNE: I can't criticize the fact
that people aren't coming up here because they're doing what's sensible.
They're doing what they're being advised to do. Stay out of the area unless
it's really necessary, but that doesn't help our situation. Effectively
it's costing us more to be open than we're actually taking, so we've had
to make the decision to close completely. The net effect of that is obviously
we've had to lay our staff off as well.
WILENIUS: The closure of racecourses
like Exeter send out a strong signal that rural areas are shut for business.
Ministers have sent out a conflicting signal that it's safe to travel to
large parts of the countryside, but farmers leaders are wary, and feel
instead more areas may need to be closed.
BEN GILL: What we need to do is
consider very carefully every trip we do and assess it against criteria
- have you a potential contact there. Don't just think 'cos it's a grass
field there's no stock in, there's no risk. There may have been stock in.
The virus we know can harbour in the dung for up to a month. You may step
on some dung. You may brush against a hedge, there are many ways you can
inadvertently transmit this virus. And so the grassland areas of this country,
even areas where we haven't got it at the moment are at risk, simply because
it continues to spread into more counties.
We clearly have to take
every effort to contain the spread further, in particularly Cumbria, there
are signs of lateral spread along valleys and that suggests that I think
it would be prudent to go for road closures which we haven't been able
to do because of the legal footing at the moment, to minimise any risk
of inadvertent spread.
WILENIUS: The foot and mouth crisis
is now posing a serious threat to the farming and also the tourist industries
of this country. So the government has been forced to urgently consider
paying out much more generous compensation to those affected by it.
For the animals slaughtered
during the crisis, farmers will automatically get compensation and there
is pressure to help out others facing consequential losses. Despite the
weekend charm offensive by Ministers, hopes of a big offer of compensation
for the tourist industry look certain to be dashed. Some experts have forecast
that the government is already facing a final bill of �9 billion pounds
and a pledge to meet extra losses would make the cost even higher.
MICHAEL MEACHER MP: Well compensation is a matter
for farmers according to strict rules which is administered by the Minister
of Agriculture. With regard to rural businesses what we are talking about
here is not compensation, no government has compensated for this type of
economic loss ever in the past. What we are talking about is short term
practical transitional measures to ensure that businesses so far as we
can, do not go under and that we tide them over the crisis. That's what
we're trying to do.
COLIN BREED MP: First of all it's their
cash flow which is the real problem immediately and we need to prevail
upon the banks for instance to be sympathetic. But perhaps the government
could help the situation by rate relief for instance, giving some holidays
in terms of the payments for National Insurance and Income Tax and such,
so that all those cash flow demands where there's no money coming in but
their costs are going out, can be alleviated to some extent.
WILENIUS: Tony Blair will try to
press ahead with a General Election on May 3rd. But if the foot and mouth
crisis gets much worse, his plans could be blown off course. He could be
forced to call off the local and General Elections and hold them later
in the year.
Attempts to end speculation
about a postponement of the local elections and the General Election have
been made by the government in recent days. Indeed Labour's high command,
who've meticulously planned it feel the election bandwagon is rolling
and can't be stopped.
MEACHER: There frankly is not a
justification for cancellation at this point. Of course we have to look
at what may happen in the future and of course we have to take account
of that. But there are no intention at this time, no contingency plans
to cancel those local elections, and indeed if we did so it would be sending
a very serious and adverse message for the livestock export industry and
for the tourist industry if we said for the next seven weeks and beyond
that Britain was a plagued area. I mean that is not the message to give.
So there is no question, we do intend to proceed with these elections.
GORDON PRENTICE: There's a kind of matrix on the
wall there isn't there, bringing the economic cycle and the political cycle
together and I think this government has done a marvellous job in that,
that people, I think are feeling better off. The economy is doing well.
We haven't been in recession for a full four years and then this happens.
Who could have believed it. And I think people may feel as if it's manipulative,
sticking to a game plan whatever, when the countryside is literally going
up in flames and I think it would be inappropriate.
WILENIUS: Indeed, while large parts
of the British countryside are closed down and the rural population is
cut off and isolated, politicians and party activists would hardly be welcome.
The government may need to show that the foot and mouth crisis has hit
its peak, the number of new cases is falling and the outbreak has burned
itself out, before it can safely proceed with the elections.
PRENTICE: But in the middle of
this I think it would be inappropriate for us to have a General Election
and indeed the local elections as well, because there is one question that
we cannot answer and the question is this, why do you have to go to the
country now. We're elected for a full five year parliament and we could
run on, as John Major did for the full five year term. And I think it would
be very, very difficult to campaign in constituencies like mine. I've
got a lot of farmers, a rural area, but not just in the countryside. I
think it would be difficult for me in the towns in my constituency to try
and explain to people why it's necessary for them to go to the polls now.
WILENIUS: Tony Blair seemed set
for a clear run into the next election. But the detailed plan for a second
victory did not foresee foot and mouth. Now he has to negotiate a difficult
week, with farmers in revolt over a new cull and opposition to the election
growing inside and outside his party. Ideally he would go ahead with the
elections in May, but the sheer scale of the crisis may eventually close
off that option.
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