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JOHN HUMPHRYS: A few weeks ago the government
seemed to have it all sewn up. The economy was rattling along nicely,
the opinion polls could scarcely have been more favourable and it was an
open secret that the election would be held on May 3rd. The timing seemed
perfect. How different that looks this weekend. There is talk of a serious
recession; the papers have been full of stories of sleaze. And foot-and-mouth
is sweeping across the country - out of control. The polls tell us that
the last thing most people want now is a General Election. The government
has a problem.
The Northern Ireland Secretary,
John Reid, is with me and we'll talk if we may about Northern Ireland a
little later Dr Reid. But first of all, the question of the perception
of the government's competence. It has taken a battering, hasn't it, foot-and-mouth
raises that whole question in a way you can't possibly have expected. People
think, increasingly, you have handled it badly. We heard Professor David
King, the Chief Scientist, saying that it is out of control and yet your
people, the politicians, tell us endlessly, or had been telling us endlessly,
until Professor King spilled the beans, that it was under control.
DR JOHN REID: Well, if you're talking about
perception, it's interesting that of the three things you mentioned at
the beginning, in terms of economic competence, I don't think there's anyone
questioning the economic competence of the government...
HUMPHRYS: ...no I talked about
the possibility of recession, we're seeing what's happening on the stock
markets and so on. So I wasn't suggesting that the economic competence
was questioned in that sense.
REID: Well that's the important
thing, it's not within our control...
HUMPHRYS: ...lots of things are
important...
REID: Well it's an important
thing about the economy, it's not within our control to dictate what happens
in the American stock market but people know ...
HUMPHRYS: Indeed but foot-and-mouth
is a disaster that you have had to deal with and the view is that you have
not dealt it, increasingly the view is that you have not dealt with it
competently.
REID: Well I was dealing
with the first question that you raised in your introduction which was
the economic stability which is still there...
HUMPHRYS: ...no I didn't raise
that, but anyway, go on.
REID; ...on the foot-and-mouth
question I think people recognise, as the government does, that we've got
a huge and significant problem. I think people also increasingly recognise
that one of the problems that we're facing is the spread of the disease
and there is no doubt that a key element of that problem is the fact that
between the time when the first reports were given to the government in
Essex and they traced it back very quickly to Northumberland, but they
then found that between that point and when it had first arisen, there
was at least two weeks. And during those two weeks, there had been a huge
movement of sheep in particular, but livestock throughout the country,
much more so than in 1967 because there are many more transactions now
and the sheep flocks are much larger and it wasn't readily appreciable
right at the beginning just to what extent that had spread.
Now having said that,
the government has done everything possible, it has put in the resources,
vets, we started off with two-hundred-and-twenty, we've now got eleven-hundred.
The army are in, not to shoot, because we have plenty of people to carry
out the slaughtering but because this is a mammoth organisational task
and the command and control expertise of the army is of enormous benefit
there. We've established the COBRA, the emergency planning meetings, which
go on continually on this now, but the disease isn't spreading from infected
animals to infected animals. So if you ask me, is it under control, in
the sense that we've reached the peak and it's going down, we know exactly
where it will go and it will be finished in a very short period of time,
no, because we're in for the long haul, it is still spreading, if you asked
me, is it under control in the sense that we have some idea of where it's
going, that we are doing everything necessary in putting all the resources
in, in order to combat that, to control it, then eradicate it, the answer
to that is yes.
HUMPHRYS: My point is that it took
Professor King, not a politician, to tell us that it was not under control.
We had been assured right up until that point, by Nick Brown and others,
that it was under control. It manifestly is not under control and the
reason for that as Professor King himself, who has obviously no political
axe to grind, on the contrary, he's on the government payroll. He said,
it is partly the way, the fault of the way it has been handled. It took
so long between identifying the disease in an animal and killing that animal,
that the thing got a hold in a way that it should not have done.
REID: Well, let's just
examine what Professor King said. He actually...what he actually said
was what the government was doing, but he said, you have to do it quicker.
HUMPHRYS: It's crucial.
REID: It is crucial and
this is what we're applying all of our mind and all of our resources to
John.
HUMPHRYS: But you didn't do it
properly at the beginning, that's my point.
REID: Well, just let me
finish John and then we can sit in judgement on that. He said that in
order to control it, given the spread that we increasingly know has taken
place and the movements that have taken place of livestock of infected
livestock, that we have to reduce the time between the reporting and the
slaughter to less than a day. Now we had been doing everything possible
to do that but obviously if the spread is much wider it is more difficult
to do. But what I can tell you is that whereas it was taking on average
a day and a half, not a great deal more, but above that crucial threshold
which would stop it declining and cause it to increase, it is now being
reduced, on average at the end of this week, to point-six of a day. So,
to less than a day, as he was recommending, to almost half-a-day, but then
one particular area, which is Cumbria, where there...almost half of these
cases are taking place, in Cumbria, Dumfries and Galloway, it is still
slightly over a day, so in other words, what Professor King was saying
was not that the government was not doing something, he was confirming
that what we were doing was correct, but saying you have to get that time
down and that is one of the two things that we're now desperately trying
to do and putting the resources into it.
HUMPRHYS: Well, I suspect that's
a bit of a distinction without a difference but let's have a look at that
in a little bit more detail and of course, averages can be hugely misleading
because if in some areas farmers are having to wait four days, as indeed
has been the case, then enormous damage is going to be caused as a result
of that, but look at the figures...
REID: Can I just ask John,
I think you may be using the days between reporting and not slaughter but
reporting and disposal.
HUMPHRYS: No, I'm talking about
reporting and slaughter. I personally have spoken to farmers where that
has been the case, for all sorts of reasons, some of which obviously nobody
can be blamed for, but if we look at the total figures, at the moment that
are two-thousand...two-hundred thousand animals, waiting to be slaughtered.
Now in the last twenty-four hours, sixty-seven-thousand have been diagnosed,
thirty-three-thousand have been destroyed. So if you take those figures,
it's perfectly clear that that number of animals waiting to be slaughtered
is increasing and increasing and increasing and you are not on top of it.
REID: Well, let me tell
you some of things that we have done.
HUMPHRYS: Oh and you don't dispute
those figures.
REID: Sorry?
HUMPHRYS: Those are MAFF figures,
so you're not disputing those...
REID: No, I'm not disputing
the figures. What I am saying to you is that the average time now is point-six
of a day, it's less than a day, but in the area where there is the mass
number to be dealt with, obviously it's more difficult than the average
as you yourself pointed out. We have increased the number of vets from
two-hundred-and-twenty to over eleven-hundred vets now in order to do that.
We have got rid of the regulations, pre-existing regulations, for which
there was very good reasons that said that vets, after visiting one premise,
have to wait a reasonable time before going to the next one. We've done
that so that we can shorten the time and maximise the use of the vast increase
in vets that we've got. We have the army now in, carrying out the logistics
of it, there's a misunderstanding sometimes, people who may be, your viewers,
think that we're bringing in the army...
HUMPHRYS: ...no, no, I think people
understand that they're not shooting animals, they simply organising...
REID: ...it is because
the vastness of the problem we're tackling requires logistics operation
and command...
HUMPRHYS: ...and again, maybe they
should have been brought in earlier, but still, we'll...
REID: ...well, the army
are now involved in, all movements have ceased, we have also on the second
recommendation where we were originally doing it selectively, we have said
that in the areas where it is most badly affected, Dumfries, Galloway and
Cumbria, there will be the three kilometre cull inside it for...
HUMPHRYS: Ah well now, Professor
King wanted that extended throughout the country.
REID: Well we're extending
a cull in neighbourhoods throughout the country but to use the broad brush
and to say in every instance where there is one sheep, everything, all
cattle within three kilometres of that must be killed, is a pretty broad
brush.
HUMPHRYS: This is what Professor
King who has studied the epidemiology of this disease in a way that few
of us have, this is what he recommends.
REID: I think Professor
King would be the first to accept that there are local issues of geography,
of epidemiological considerations. There are numbers involved in it, what
we have done is that we have said we will apply that as he recommended
right...
HUMPHRYS: ..but you're not..
REID: ..let me finish John
- right round the area of Cumbria, Dumfries and Galloway where the major
problem is and in also in other areas where there is perhaps only one sheep
there, we will apply it to all of the neighbour and it could be up to three
kilometres in those areas. But we have to take some allowance to local
geography, local population of livestock and so on. You can't just apply
the same solution to every area.
HUMPHRYS: But nonetheless you are
not doing what he wanted you to do, what he recommended.
REID: On both of those
problems John, which is the timing, we are doing everything possible to
bring the time for everyone down to less than a day and I've given you
some example of the resources we have put in and on the culling, we have
now accepted the principal, indeed we are originally doing it in many instances
but we are now doing it in terms of the major areas, Dumfries, Galloway
and Cumbria..
HUMPHRYS: But even there....
REID: ..and in neighbourhood
farms in the other individual cases.
HUMPHRYS: But even in Dumfries,
Galloway and Cumbria it hasn't begun yet. Now it's nine days since Nick
Brown said it was going to happen and there was even a cock up there. He
said it was going to include all cattle and then he changed his mind and
apologised and it wasn't. It still hasn't begun.
REID: Well, it has begun
John. It is now beginning but you see..
HUMPHRYS: Let's be clear about
this. They haven't started the cull. They've begun to make preparations,
they haven't started the cull nine days ago.
REID: No, let's just be
quite frank about this. If we were living in a dictatorship where irrespective
of what anyone thought or what anyone's possessions or property were, we
could just send the army in and shoot on sight. That would be a different
matter. We aren't. We take scientific advice, we try to work along with
the farmers, the vast majority of whom have been extremely co-operative
but naturally...
HUMPHRYS: ..so why hasn't it begun.
REID: ..naturally there
are resistance in certain areas and sometimes very good. For instance in
burying of cattle somebody said to me this morning, why didn't you bury
it all rather than just burn it, well the answer to that is that there
are problems associated with burial as well because soil contamination..
HUMPHRYS: ...in some cases...
REID: ..in some cases exactly
and water contamination and therefore it sounds easy to say you just have
a broad brush, you go in there, send in the army, shoot everything on sight.
Now you can't do that, what you have to do is take the best scientific
advice, apply the best resources and attempt to do it. But, I'll make one
final point, that we have been handicapped because of that fortnight's
delay at the beginning...
HUMPHRYS: Alright, you made that
point very clearly..
REID: ...because the vast
number of movements throughout the country, much more so than 1967 means
that this disease can spread very very rapidly now.
HUMPHRYS: But you do accept that
we now have a national crisis.
REID: We have a crisis
in the farming industry. That is not a crisis which at the moment effects
every section of the countryside, far less every section of the country.
But we have a problem there and we are meeting that problem with a commensurate
allocation of resources.
HUMPHRYS: And yet even though we
have that crisis, we are still, it seems, and we know this because of what
Tony Blair himself said just a few days ago, we are contemplating a General
Election. Not just the Local Elections, but a General Election. So once
again, people are looking at your record and at your competence and saying
how can they be serious about this.
REID: Well first of all
Tony Blair didn't say he was contemplating a General Election, he was asked
the question how long would you have to choose and he..
HUMPHRYS: ..and the answer, he
didn't say: oh, I'm not even thinking about an election. He answered it
in a perfectly straightforward way, in a way that he's never done when
people like us have asked him the same question.
REID: Well, I mean most
of the media have known exactly how long you have to choose. All you have
to do John, I don't have to teach you this, is to take the date on which
you think a General Election will be held and work back. But that is a
choice for the Prime Minister.
HUMPHRYS: So if I had said to the
Prime Minister, how long have you got, he'd have given me that straightforward
answer - I rather doubt it. I think he'd have said: look, the election
is not an issue preoccupying me, that's what he said to everybody who asked
him the question. He goes to Europe, he gets asked that question and he
answers it perfectly straightforwardly, unaware the camera is on him but
nonetheless he answers the question.
REID: The fact of the matter
is that the Prime Minister will choose the election date on his own. What
we are really talking about, I think, is whether or not the 3rd of May
elections for Local Government should be cancelled or postponed.
HUMPHRYS: But should he even and
this is the thing that puzzles people hugely, should he even be thinking
about a General Election under these circumstances.
REID: In the last four
weeks John, I have had six conversations with the Prime Minister and attended
five Cabinet meetings, not at any point in any of them has there been
any mention of a General Election from the Prime Minister.
HUMPHRYS: So why can't it be ruled
out?
REID: Because the Prime
Minister has the prerogative and he has to balance a number of things about
the date. What we are really talking about here is whether the Local Elections
go ahead on the 3rd May.
HUMPHRYS: We're talking about the
both, we're talking about the both, at least I'm trying to talk about the
both, because there is general concern about it, you can't dismiss that.
REID: John, I'm prepared
to concede that you're talking about the General Election, that the press
are talking about the General Election, that Mr Hague is talking, Mr Major..
the Prime Minister has not be talking about the General Election..
HUMPHRYS: Ah, so he doesn't have
it in mind then, does he, is this what you're trying to tell me.
REID: No, what I am saying
to you is that the Prime Minister is putting his time to trying to solve
a number of problems in this country, one of which is Europe, relationships
and the free market in Europe. One of which is the foot-and-mouth. But
if you come to the question, you are really asking me, sorry to teach you
to suck eggs on this, but really what you want to know is the 3rd May elections,
should they go ahead or are you not interested in that.
HUMPHRYS: What I'm putting to you
is this. Nick Brown, right at the start of this crisis said, look I'm
too busy to come along to the House of Commons to have a debate. "Surely
you people realise", he said to the Tories and others, "surely you realise
what really matters is getting on top of this and I mustn't be rushing
around going off to the House of Commons, no, I've got to get on top of
this" Now Tony Blair is now getting on top of it, he's being briefed every
hour. The notion that he might even be thinking about an election in the
midst of all this, when he is supposed to be managing a national crisis
is to many people preposterous. You would accept that wouldn't you?
REID: Every conversation
I have had with Tony Blair, I've told you, has been about the issues facing
the country, not the General Election. What is significant is half the
conversation I've had with you has not been about foot-and-mouth or the
issues facing the country, the call for a General Election.
HUMPHRYS: No, no. Three minutes
roughly because I have timings in my ear you see, so I know precisely how
long we've talked about it.
REID: Yes, but you're not
finished yet.
HUMPHRYS: I haven't finished yet
because I'm going to have one more attempt at this.
REID: Let me address the
question then. The Prime Minister will decide on the General Election.
When he does he will tell us all, including you and I.
HUMPHRYS: Right. That I fully understand
but.....
REID: If you're talking
about the local elections, which no-one has to decide on at the moment
because they are scheduled for the 3rd of May. There are arguments for
and against that which will be taken into account as regards cancellation,
because the farmers many of whom have been very tragically hit, and some
of the areas which have been hit are suggesting that they be postponed
or cancelled. There are other people like tourist industry for instance
who say, for goodness sake don't cancel them because that would be a signal
to the rest of the world and would add to the problems of the countryside,
and would lose billions of pounds and potentially tens of thousands of
jobs, so both of those will be taken into account, but our prime consideration
at the moment is to tackle the issues facing the country including foot-and-mouth
disease.
HUMPHRYS: And that consideration
ought to overshadow any other considerations including whether to hold
a General Election.
REID: The consideration
about the effects of cancellation or otherwise of the local government
elections will obviously be taken into account...
HUMPHRYS: You see the fact....Including...
REID: But the fact that
by doing one or the other they could seriously damage even further the
countryside, and I'm sure the Prime Minister and other ministers will be
giving consideration to that. As far as the General Election is concerned,
that's up to the P.M. and his whole concentration I can assure you at the
moment is on tackling foot-and-mouth.
HUMPHRYS: If it is delayed, let
me turn to your Northern Ireland portfolio for the moment - if it is delayed
it isn't going to help you in this sense, and alright I'll accept that
you don't know whether it's going to be delayed or not. If it's postponed
things are going to be put on hold aren't they - they have been put on
hold effectively now until after the election. Well, that's what people
tell us all the time in Northern Ireland as you well know.
REID: I haven't said that...
HUMPHRYS: No, you haven't told
me that, but then you're a very discreet man, but that's what they're saying
in Northern Ireland, as you well know. That is going to cause you a problem
isn't it?
REID: Well...
HUMPHRYS: I mean the course of
the peace process if that's what we must call it, a problem.
REID: Right. The peace
process - let's look at how we got to where we are. It took decades, indeed
centuries, so my own view is if a General Election occurs a few months
earlier or later then, in the broad sweep of history it is not going to
be a serious difficulty, it's not going materially affect it. Where are
we on this? Yes speculation about a General Election makes it less likely
that the parties to the Good Friday agreement will take big steps forward.
HUMPHRYS: Exactly.
REID: Nevertheless there
isn't a standstill. We're moving forward on four absolutely crucial areas,
and that is the area of the establishment of the new politics, we have
a new assembly, new executive which includes both traditions, including
Sinn Fein ministers in the assembly, on policing where we've made a start
on a brand new policing service in Northern Ireland, one we hope which
the whole community will participate in and respect, on normalisation sometimes
called demilitarisation from the Government point of view. We have got
troops down now to far below the high levels of twenty-six thousand to
roughly thirteen thousand now, we've closed down over thirty-three military
establishments and we've made progress on that, and on decommissioning....
HUMPHRYS: Well now, decommissioning.
REID: We have to have some
movement of a substantial nature on decommissioning.
HUMPHRYS: It's got to be completed
by June, this is the point that is the deadline, you have a deadline, this
is the point.
REID: I obviously welcome
the fact that the guns of the IRA have been silent for four years because
we lost three-thousand, six hundred people over the past thirty years in
Northern Ireland and many, many more families tragically affected, so I
welcome the fact they have been silent against the security forces. I
welcome the fact that the Provisional IRA have re-engaged with John de
Chastelain first of all by a telephone call. ...
HUMPHRYS: . They've not given up
any weapons and David Trimble is saying there must be decommissioning completed.
We don't have too much time for the history of it, and I'm trying..
REID: No, but I think it's
important in Northern Ireland to recognise how far we've come, not just
the challenges we face.
HUMPHRYS: I acknowledge that.
REID: So, we now have re-engagement
with the Provisional IRA and John de Chastelain. That must move on from
the stage of talking about whether they decommission to how they decommission,
and actual decommissioning.
HUMPHRYS: Yes.
REID: Right. And we have
set the target date last year in May, we set the target date for June of
this year. It's not the end of the .......
HUMPHRYS: But it's the second postponement
and the point is you cannot can you, postpone it again without causing
David Trimble and his Ulster Unionists a huge problem
REID: Well, David...
HUMPHRYS: Massive. It may finish
off David Trimble.
REID: David absolutely
- David has made his own view known, and that is unless there is substantial
movement on decommission as he put it, then he would not be prepared to
lift the ban on Sinn Fein ministers. We want to see that lifted as well.
If there was substantial movement he would respond positively, the person
who will decide that is John de Chastelain, the independent commissioner.
HUMPHRYS: You've got to - it's
down to you to decide whether you postpone that deadline and try to set
back that deadline again, that's up to you. Would you do that?
REID: Well, the key thing
is what John de Chastelain says. He has been appointed to oversee the
decommissioning. Now if he says - he's already said in a statement two
days ago that the IRA have re-engaged, that they are acting in good faith,
that's a very important point, that they are going to discuss again in
the near future, and he believes that there is the basis for further substantial
progress. Now, if that happens then of course it unlocks a number of other
things including David Trimble's reaction, which presumably would in those
circumstances be positive. But we have got a target date in June. We stick
to that target date and we want to see decommissioning progress.
HUMPHRYS: John Reid, thank you
very much indeed.
REID: Thank you John.
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