BBC On The Record - Broadcast: 08.04.01



==================================================================================== NB. THIS TRANSCRIPT WAS TYPED FROM A TRANSCRIPTION UNIT RECORDING AND NOT COPIED FROM AN ORIGINAL SCRIPT; BECAUSE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF MIS-HEARING AND THE DIFFICULTY, IN SOME CASES, OF IDENTIFYING INDIVIDUAL SPEAKERS, THE BBC CANNOT VOUCH FOR ITS ACCURACY ==================================================================================== ON THE RECORD RECORDED FROM TRANSMISSION: BBC ONE DATE: 08.04.01 ==================================================================================== JOHN HUMPHRYS: Good afternoon. Pensioners get an extra five pounds a week from tomorrow. Is it a pre-election bribe or is the government really committed to making sure the elderly get a decent income in years to come? I'll be talking to the Social Security Secretary Alistair Darling. Rail fares are shooting up even though the service is still dreadful. I'll be asking the Transport Minister if there's anything the government can do about it. And we'll be reporting on whether the General Election will undermine the peace process in Northern Ireland. That's after the news read by Fiona Bruce. NEWS HUMPHRYS: David Trimble is a crucial figure in the Northern Ireland peace process. Will the General Election leave him damaged? Our rail services are in a parlous state... and now fares are going up. I'll be asking the Transport Minister why they're allowing it. But first pensions. All the political parties know they need the "grey" vote when the election comes in a few weeks from now. So it may be no coincidence that old people will be picking up a decent increase when they collect their pensions from tomorrow. An extra five pounds a week for single pensioners and eight pounds for a couple. And two days ago the government launched its new scheme to help people provide for themselves in their old age: stakeholder pensions. Is that enough? I'll be talking to the Social Security Secretary Alistair Darling after this report from Jonathan Beale. JONATHAN BEALE: The choice has never been easy whether it's chocolate eggs for Easter or nest eggs for the future. This week the Government hatched another new pension plan. One that it hopes will bring us a more secure retirement as well as helping to ensure its own political success. There are twelve million pensioners in Britain and they're almost twice as likely to vote as those aged between eighteen to twenty-four. In thirty years time the over sixty's will make up a third of the electorate. Increasingly, political parties ignore the grey vote at their peril. So has Labour done enough for those who've already retired - and is it doing enough for those who're now planning their retirement? STEVE WEBB MP: The long term strategy has a fatal flaw. The basic state pension will wither and die. The seventy-five p that we had in this parliament is a taste of things to come. FRANK FIELD MP: I would describe the current lot of initiatives as initiatives taken with the best of motives which will not survive the course. BEALE: In the kitchen of Rococo they aim to leave their customers with a sweeter taste. It's a small company making and selling hand crafted chocolate. Earnings among the ten staff are between ten and twenty thousand pounds. Just the sort of people the government have in mind for its new stakeholder pension: MICHAEL LOCKYER: They are cheap effective solutions to individual pension planning with very, very good low charges dictated by the Government and capped at one percent. BEALE: It may at first appear an attractive proposition. Forty per cent of the population have no pension plans other than what the state will provide. Even the Government admits that its basic pension is not enough to live on. For people like Ruth though the stakeholder scheme has still not whet her appetite. RUTH MORGAN: In my job I'm not on the minimum, I'm above the minimum wage but even so my money is completely taken care of with my every day expenses: the rent, the bills, looking after my child and I would not be in a position to take out a stakeholder pension unfortunately. LOCKYER: People in that sort of income bracket tend to have a lot of other commitments maybe mortgages, children, other expenses and pensions is perhaps on the bottom of the agenda as far as they're concerned. But I think the stakeholder net itself has been cast quite wide and they will be quite attractive to higher earners. They're going be great tax planning vehicles for people who perhaps want to pay into a stakeholder for their children, for their grandchildren, for their wives. BEALE: The challenge for the Government is to get its target group to pour their wages into the new stakeholder pension. Contributions are still meant to be voluntary though it might not turn out as planned. LOCKYER: I think that stakeholder pensions at the moment, it isn't compulsory for employers to contribute, it isn't going to be compulsory for employees to contribute, and I think that at some point in the future the Government may well have to revisit this issue and it might be quite unpopular. I think possibly they may have to insist on compulsion, and it could be that employers will forced to make a contribution into a stakeholder pension on behalf of their employees. BEALE: That's a worrying prospect for people like Chantal who're running a small business on a limited budget. From October companies like hers will be fined if they haven't signed up to a stakeholder scheme. She already feels the Government's burdened her with excessive red tape, and doubts that staff will be enticed with what's on offer. CHANTAL COADY: I think it's extremely unlikely that anyone will be subscribing to the stakeholder pension and from my point of view I hope they don't, because if they do we've got to do the deductions, we've got to administer the whole scheme. BEALE: Even if the Government can win round the sceptics, in the world of pensions there's still a bewildering range of options. The government's promising a new second state pension for those on three to ten thousand pounds. It'll replace the existing state earnings related pension - or SERPS. The stakeholder pension is for the group who earn between ten and twenty thousand pounds. Everyone can already buy a personal pension, but may now wonder whether they're better off investing in a stakeholder. An occupational scheme may still be the best investment - but they're not available to everyone. DAVID WILLETS MP: I'm afraid a lot of companies are closing down their occupational pension schemes for new members and telling people instead you must take out a stakeholder, often with a smaller company contribution than there was before. So the danger with stakeholders is that paradoxically hundreds of thousands of new people take out stakeholders but they're not new pension savers - they're people who end up having a less valuable pension than they would have had otherwise. ADVERTISEMENT: "Scuse me, I'm looking for some help with my pension options." BEALE: The Government's embarked on an expensive advertising campaign to give people advice. Opponents say it shouldn't have confused them in the first place. WILLETS: Being new Labour everything has to be new, everything has to be redesigned, everything has to be renamed and you've got a host of new schemes but the trouble is that especially with pensions what's very important is to have stability. and because they've abolished SERPS and brought in the second state pension instead, because instead of sticking with personal pensions they've had to rename them as stakeholders, because of all this they've generated enormous confusion and uncertainty. BEALE: Confusion is not confined to future pensions policy. Those who've already retired are often baffled by the Government's current initiatives and apparent fondness for form filling. Labour's policy of targeting help towards the poorer pensioners may be noble. But in practice it often involves having to answering pages of questions to prove that a pensioner is on a low or modest income. And perhaps not surprisingly many haven't bothered. STEVE WEBB MP: The government is fond of saying that its strategy is to help the poorest pensioners but in truth the really poorest pensioners in the land are the ones who are entitled to these means testing benefits, but don't claim that entitlement because the system is very complicated, because they don't want actually to fill in long complex intrusive forms. BEALE: Once again the Government's had to turn to advertising to encourage pensioners to apply for its means tested benefit. THORA HURD: Did you know the Government is identifying from its records some people who they think may be entitled to extra money through its minimum income guarantee? BEALE: Half a million haven't claimed. And yet it still plans to introduce more means testing. The Government's targeting those who've already had to break into their savings or who have none at all. The minimum income guarantee ensures the poorest pensioners have at least ninety-two pounds a week. From two-thousand-and-three the Government have promised to bring in a new pensioners tax credit. This is aimed at those with modest savings. The benefit tapers off for those on higher incomes. But there is help too for pensioners regardless of income. Free TV licenses for the over seventy-fives are among a series of one-off payments. There's also a winter fuel allowance now worth two-hundred pounds for the over sixties. For Tina - Rococo's oldest employee - there's a reluctance to go cap in hand to the Government. Like her, all that most pensioners want is a decent basic state pension. TINA LAMBI: Personally I would not ever apply for anything like that because I think it should be given to you without having to fill in forms or asking for it, that's how I feel. RODNEY BICKERSTAFFE: We don't want a pension scheme which is going down and down in value and people being told two things: either you look after yourself in terms of private pension aid and private pension insurance or secondly, well you can have more but you can only have it by jumping through hoops, by filling in forty-page forms, by going through the indignity if you want, the stigma of means testing, that I call parading poverty. BEALE: Ministers hope their long list of initiatives will help eradicate pensioner poverty. But continuing protests by the elderly show that they're not convinced. What they want more than anything else is the guarantee of a decent state pension. And many believe the only way they'll get that is by restoring the link with earnings. BICKERSTAFFE: I think that many people thought that the Labour government was gong to say DNR - do not resuscitate - to the basic state pension. But I think that it's resurrected now, I think the debate is on, I think we've all to play for. And certainly I think the Labour government in the years ahead is going to seriously have to consider that the basic state pension isn't just the foundation, but it's the mainstay. BEALE: None of the main parties at Westminster is offering to deliver the ultimate pensions gift - restoring the link with earnings. Though just before the election Labour is offering a significant rise in the basic pension - a sweetener after last years' miserly offering. WEBB: I think many pensioners do feel let down that when there wasn't an election on all they got was seventy-five p; they are not stupid, they know the five pounds is because there's an election round the corner and they know that once the election is over it will be seventy-five p again. BEALE: Whether that turns out to be true or not, even the Government doesn't claim that the basic state pension will ever be adequate. Critics say nor will the alternatives people will be buying instead. FIELD: Before the end of the next parliament the Government will have to return to pensions reform, and while stakeholder will no doubt be able to be paraded around as increasing the numbers of people with funded pensions - I think we will find, sadly, that the group that most needs coverage from funded pensions are the least likely to have taken out stakeholder - they either aren't interested or much more importantly they haven't got the money to and therefore they won't and therefore the issue of fundamental pension reform will return once again for the next parliament to consider. BEALE: Laying plans for the future is never easy. But the problem for Labour is that its new pensions goodies may have left people even more uncertain as to what the state will provide once they finally retire from work. HUMPHRYS: Jonathan Beale reporting there. JOHN HUMPHRYS: Alistair Darling, stakeholder pensions, a step in the right direction many people say - but - and this is a serious problem isn't it, it isn't going to attract enough people who are on modest incomes, ten thousand to twenty thousand pounds a year. It's not going to do it, is it? ALISTAIR DARLING: Stakeholder pensions were designed to be one part of a number of measures the government is introducing to make sure that people have a decent income in retirement. Now at the moment if..there are many people who don't have access to an occupational pension through their employer, people for whom a personal private pension are inappropriate because they tend to have higher charges and it was that gap in the market that stakeholder pensions are designed to meet. Now I believe that the signs so far are encouraging, two years' ago when we announced stakeholder pensions some people said 'oh you won't get anyone to sell them'. In fact there are now forty-four pension providers in the field and I believe that over the years, more and more people on moderate and higher earnings will get into funded pensions, of which stakeholder pensions are an important part, but of course they are not the whole story but they are an important part of it. HUMPHRYS: It's one thing to get people to sell them it's another thing to get people to buy them and you don't really think that people like that youngish woman we saw in the film there - Ruth - she said my income is completely taken up - I quote "with everyday expenses". So you can't expect people like her to buy into it can you. DARLING: Let me set out our strategy. The first thing that we did when we came into power was to sort out the problems that we inherited with a growing amount of pensioner poverty. That's why we introduced the Minimum Income Guarantee, that's why we have increased pensions for everyone to make sure that all pensioners shared in the rising prosperity. The second stage of our reform was to make sure that long-term pension provision was improved. Now we've done two things here. Firstly, as I said we have introduced stakeholder pensions to give millions of people access to a funded pension who at the moment don't have access to them. Remember one of the advantages of stakeholder pensions is that because of their very low charging, then people will actually get more pension for the amount of money that they put in. But, part of our long-term reform also as your report makes clear, is to introduce the state second pension which is specifically designed for people on low earnings, who don't have money to put by, to put into a funded pension and that state second pension actually doubles the amount of money people would have got under the Serps scheme. So we are helping people on low pay, we are helping people on moderate pay. The third stage, which we may come onto in this discussion of course, is the Pension Credit which will mean for the first time in the Social Security system, if you do actually do what governments have asked you to do over the years and you save for your retirement, you will get a credit, a reward for having done so rather than being penalised for that thrift which is the system that we took over. HUMPHRYS: But let me stay with the thought of stakeholder pensions for the moment and I am dealing here as you know, with people on what you would describe I think as modest incomes, that's to say ten to twenty thousand pounds a year. Your ambition if I may remind you was to ensure that everybody earning more than ten thousand pounds a year..twenty thousand pounds a year, should be and I quote "in a secure funded private pension". Now you are not talking about that as being a very clear ambition that they should all be in some sort of pension such as that. You are talking about it as an option. So you have in effect, scaled down your ambition haven't you. DARLING: No, let me be very clear about this. The government believes that if someone is on moderate or higher earnings then they ought to be in a funded pension. That's always been the position, set out clearly in the Green Paper we published in 1998, it was the position then, it is the position now. What I was saying to you was, stakeholder is one funded pension option, along with occupational pensions or personal private pensions and the way in which we have changed the rebate scheme, the amount of money that you get out of your National Insurance Contributions to go into your funded pension, means that there..you get a very good deal from the state as long..as well as with the tax relief you can get because you can contribute up to three thousand six hundred pounds a year. There are a lot of incentives there to encourage people to get into funded pensions... HUMPHRYS: ..but I mean - sorry - that idea of contributing three thousand six hundred pounds a year to people like Ruth is of course laughable. I mean as I've said to you, she told us she couldn't afford anything. So what do you say to people like her who is on a modest income and can't afford to pay into this scheme. DARLING: What I say, at the moment, assuming that that lady Ruth who you interviewed is employed, she is paying National Insurance Contributions. Now I have no idea what her earnings are and I certainly wouldn't seek to advise her from this distance on that basis, but if you get somebody who is employed, they are paying National Insurance, what I am saying to you is because of the way the system operates, somebody on modest earnings, between about ten thousand and twenty-two thousand pounds a year, would get an enhanced contribution from their National Insurance into a funded scheme were she to go into a stakeholder pension scheme. HUMPHRYS: She'll still have to pay. DARLING: I also said to you John that if she is earning less than that or you know she is on the sort of cusp if you like between lower and moderate earnings, then she might be better advised to stay in the state second pension, that's the reformed Serps system where she would actually be getting double the benefit than under the original Serps scheme. So what I am saying to you is, for someone on low earnings, or someone there or there abouts, she might be better off in the state scheme, but someone..generally speaking somebody as their earnings rise above that, then they would probably be better off in a funded scheme. Now what we have done is to ensure that the National Insurance rebate system and the tax system is designed to reward people if they actually do go into a stakeholder pension scheme. But whether or not it is appropriate for her, clearly I don't know because I don't know how much she earns. HUMPHRYS: Well we were assuming that she earns between ten and twenty, I think it's something like fifteen but of course I may be wrong about that, my apologies to her if I am wrong. But there are five million people who have no pension, apart from the basic state pension of course, no other pension apart from that. What do you want that figure... DARLING: If she is earning fifteen thousand pounds a year, if she goes into a stakeholder pension then the amount of money that she presently pays through her National Insurance scheme into the state system because I assume that's what her arrangements are at the moment, that would go in - if she went into a stakeholder scheme, into a funded pot and all the evidence is that somebody going into a funded pension, on that sort of earnings would do better than if they'd have stayed in the state scheme. Now, clearly I can't give her personal advice for obvious reasons but the way in which the National Insurance system works, which she pays anyway, is that if it went into a funded pension, then she might be better off as a result of that. And of course in years to come if her earnings increase, then it would almost certainly be the case that she can put additional money into a pension as she moves towards retirement. HUMPHRYS: But you know that there are many people like her who won't do that for whatever reason, it may simply be because they feel they can't afford to, so ultimately, you have to bit the bullet and say, it must be compulsory, mustn't you? DARLING: No, you see, if you are employed in this country at the moment, you have to contribute, there's no question, it's not voluntary, you have to pay National Insurance. So compulsion is already in the system and that lady Ruth, she's already obliged to pay National Insurance Contributions which goes into a state pension and about five per cent of it into her state second pension or Serps. What I'm saying to you is, that for moderate earners, someone earning more than about ten-thousand pounds a year, generally speaking, they will be better off in a funded pension. Ideally an occupational pension but clearly her employer doesn't have one of those, so from last Friday, stakeholder pensions are being set up, where these investments are all pooled, they're invested and generally speaking, all the evidence is that they get a better return. So compulsion isn't the issue because there's already compulsion in the system. What is at issue is the objective of making sure that more people on moderate and higher earnings are in funded pensions because they would be better off and to come back to the point you made right at your start to your programme, you are right in saying the government strategy is to make sure through a combination of state and funded provision, people have a much better income in retirement. The stakeholder is one part of achieving that objective. HUMPHRYS: And if they choose not, let me return to the question of compulsion, I take your point about the National Insurance pay-off, as it were, but if they choose not to do it, would you consider, at some stage, compulsion? If you discovered after a year or two years, or whatever it is, the thing simply isn't working, people aren't going for this, would you then consider compulsion? DARLING: As I said to you, people like Ruth have no option. If you are employed in this country, your employer takes your tax and your National Insurance Contributions away from you. Your National Insurance Contributions go into the National Insurance fund, which amongst other things pays for your basic state pension and the state second pension. So compulsion is there anyway. But I mean, the key point to focus on here is what we're doing is, as I say firstly we are making sure that for lower earners the state system is much much better than it ever was in the past because these people could never earn enough on their own, that's why we've increased the amount of benefit they get through the state second pension, it's almost doubled, trebled in some cases actually. What we're saying for moderate and higher earners is that you really ought to be in a funded pension and that's why stakeholder pensions have been introduced because at the moment, or up until Friday, people didn't have any choice in the matter, there was nowhere for them to invest their money. Now there are stakeholder pensions, they are low charges, one per cent, and that's already, you can see the effect of that across the whole industry now. They are portable, you can put money in, there are not penalties if you stop for a while and then contribute. So that it benefits low paid people, it benefits women who take time off to care for her children or for other relatives. These stakeholder pensions will be of immense benefit to the pensions system and as I say, they're giving options that were never never there in the past. HUMPHRYS: Let's look at the basic state pension then. You'd accept that secondary pensions can be a fairly complicated issue. The problem with the basic state pension now is that that too is very complicated because of all the means testing that is involved at various stages in the process. You were supposed, New Labour was supposed to move away from means testing, we have more now than we ever had before. DARLING: We don't actually, it's almost exactly the same as it was when we came into office because of course, what's happening is this - if you look at pensioner incomes today, the average pensioner income is a hundred-and-forty-one pounds a week. Now the reason it is that is because a lot of people are now retiring with very good occupational pensions. You know one in six pensioner couples are retiring on over twenty-one thousand pounds a year. The problem is, there's a lot of pensioners at the other end of the income scale, who only have the basic state pension, or in fact there's a million pensioners who don't even have that. Now a one-size fits all approach doesn't work. So what we've done is this. Firstly, you've got the Minimum Income Guarantee, which actually you can now complete a form that's only ten pages long, well from October, ten pages long, or you can apply for it over the phone, you've got... HUMPHRYS: ...and of which half a million people don't get still. DARLING: I'll come onto that point because I think that....those figures are misleading. We've got the Minimum Income Guarantee which from tomorrow goes up to ninety-two pounds fifteen a week. So what we're saying is no pensioner should be living on less than that. Now that ninety-two pounds fifteen a week compares to only about sixty-eight pounds that the Tories left us when they left office four years ago. So there is the Minimum Income Guarantee. That is the only way of getting money to the pensioners on low incomes. If you don't have the Minimum Income Guarantee, if you're opposed to it as the Tories are, then you will find that pensioner poverty will grow and I don't believe that pensioner poverty has any part in a civilised society... HUMPHRYS: ...yes but it... DARLING: ...the second thing you've got to do John, is to make sure that for those millions of pensioners and there's about five million of them, who've saved a little bit of money, they've got maybe a modest occupational pension, or they've got a little bit of money in the bank, that they're actually rewarded for their thrift. Under the present system, under the system we inherited from the Tories, they are punished because of it. When the pension credit comes in from 2003, then those pensioners will get an additional cash top-up. So the system is quite simple, Minimum Income Guarantee that ill rise to a hundred pounds in two years' time, the pension credit, which is designed to make sure that where people have saved modest sums, they get a cash top-up for having done it and the longer term reforms to make sure that everybody who can save has the opportunity to do so. HUMPHRYS: But the Minimum Income Guarantee is fine if you apply for it and if you get it but as you've acknowledged, many people don't do that, either because they think it's terribly complicated, or because they think, wrongly certainly, but nonetheless because they think it is in some way demeaning, so they don't do it. Let me remind you what Rodney Bickerstaffe said in that film, what most people want is a decent income so they don't have to rely on means tested benefits. The stigma of means testing that I call, he said, I call parading poverty. DARLING: Yes, but as Rodney well knows because I've had many hours of discussions with them, that the only way to help the generation of pensioners we now have who only had the state pension, or in some cases, not even that, including, you know, some of his own members, is to have the Minimum Income Guarantee. But you know let's deal with this point since you raised it. We wrote to two and a half million pensioners who we thought might be eligible for the Minimum Income Guarantee. Now just under a million responded. So the old argument that somehow it was stigma, or that people you know, didn't want to get in touch, you know, seems to me to have fallen away, because a million people got in touch with us. Now when we looked at the circumstances of those million people, what do we find. We find that most of them don't qualify because they've either got a modest occupational pension, or alternatively, they've got, you know, they've got some modest savings in the bank. Now when the pension credit comes in in two years' time, these people will be rewarded for their thrift. Let me give you an example. At the moment, if you've got an occupational pension of twenty pounds a week, going on top of your basic state pension, you get nothing for your thrift. Under the new system, that same person would get an extra twelve pounds a week to reward them for their thrift. Now I think the Social Security system ought to be rewarding thrift, not punishing it. Last point on this John, you talk about stigma, nobody has any compunction whatsoever about claiming tax allowances to which they're entitled. Nobody has any problem with that... HUMPHRYS: ...oh, different area... DARLING: ...well it's not because what we're saying is, that where you've got somebody on a low income then there is no reason whatsoever why they should not get that money then... HUMPHRYS: Well, why then, why did Tony Blair himself say three years ago - two-and-a-half years ago - there are problems if you move to too much means testing, as you can see with pensioners who do not take up Income Support. The Prime Minister thinks it's difficult. DARLING: It wouldn't surprise you to know that the Prime Minister finds himself in complete agreement with our pensions policy, but he won't ....... But the problem we inherited is that when we came into office there were about two million pensioners who were living on - their incomes were so low that they were on Income Support. Now, we've got to deal with that problem. You can take the Tory view and say, well we don't believe in giving these people any help, tough luck, we'll leave you to get on with it. That's what they did for their eighteen years. I believe that there should be a minimum, a guarantee for pensioners. Age Concern for example last year, said that they - that pensioners shouldn't live on less than ninety pounds a week. I agree. That's why from Monday, tomorrow the Minimum Income Guarantee will rise to over ninety-two pounds,. It will go up to a hundred pounds in two-thousand and three, but that on its own isn't enough. You've got make sure that where that nearly half the pensioner population has actually got modest savings or a modest occupational pension, you can't just say to these people: well, tough luck. You should say to these people: you've done what you were asked to do, now let's reward you for your thrift, let's not punish you as the Tories seem to want to do. HUMPHRYS: But many people believe that the basic state pension is what it should be all about, and this increase that we've now had, five pounds, is seen by many as a pre-election bribe. The reality is, isn't it, that you are not committed, you are not committed to increasing the basic state pension so that people won't have to worry about money in future. What this is, is leaving open the possibility that we might have another seventy-five per cent - a seventy-five pence increase for the next year's pension or the pension after that? DARLING: Well, despite what Willetts and Webb had to say, no party in this country is going to restore the earnings link. You know that's been the case for many years, and that's likely to remain the case. But... HUMPHRYS: So we won't have another seventy-five pence increase? DARLING: Let me directly answer your question. The problem is that the gap between pensioner incomes in this country, between the better off and the poorest is as wide, or was as wide in nineteen-ninety- seven as it was forty years earlier. To give the same amount to everyone the poorest and the richest alike doesn't make any sense. What we have done, and I think it's the right policy to pursue, is firstly to hugely increase the amount of money that the poorest pensioners get, as I say, up from sixty-eight pounds four years ago, all the Tories were prepared to allocate, up to ninety-two pounds-fifteen from tomorrow, and rising to a hundred pounds in two years' time. The second thing that we wanted to do was to make sure that those large number of pensioners that you know, were pretty - not well off - on modest incomes - should also see the fruits of their thrift, that's why we're doing the pension credit, and of course we've also made tax changes. Remember that seventy per cent of pensioners either pay no income tax or only at the ten pence rate, so we're helping those modest pensioners, but to give exactly the same to the poorest pensioner and to say, Margaret Thatcher, seems to me to be an absurd policy. HUMPHRYS: Okay. DARLING: Now I don't believe that, and it's not surprising actually that no major political party wants to return to that system. What is crucial though is to make sure we maintain and increase the Minimum Income Guarantee which the Tories oppose, to make sure that you make the long term reforms, so that people can save for the future, and at the same time make sure that saving and thrift and prudence are rewarded, that's what the pensioner credit does, and the increases in pension tomorrow, the five pounds for a single pensioner, the eight pounds for a pensioner couple and the increases planned for the following year are a step towards achieving a situation where all pensioners not only share in the country's wealth, but at the same time they can look forward to a decent income in retirement in the future. HUMPHRYS: Alistair Darling, many thanks. DARLING: Thank you. HUMPHRYS: The peace process in Northern Ireland has staggered along over the years from one crisis to another. At the moment it's more or less on hold. Everyone's waiting for the elections in June. But David Trimble, the first Minister and leader of the Ulster Unionists, may be waiting with more trepidation than most. It's assumed that the elections will give a boost to those parties and politicians who have always been opposed to the Good Friday Agreement and on the other side of the divide, to Sinn Fein. So where will that leave Mr Trimble? Iain Watson reports. IAIN WATSON: An idyllic scene - if this were rural England, the biggest worry about delaying elections would be whether foot-and-mouth could be brought under control. But this is County Fermanagh in Northern Ireland where the stakes are higher. The town at its centre, Enniskillen, was devastated by an IRA bomb on Remembrance Sunday 1987, killing eleven people. Enniskillen has tried to put the past behind it but the future remains uncertain. Momentum in the peace process has been stalled until after the General and Local Elections, bringing dangerous uncertainty for all the pro-agreement parties -but in particular, the result of these elections could place a question mark over David Trimble's future. PETER WEIR MLA: Clearly I think it is a crucial election for David Trimble. He could either be vindicated by this election or find himself politically finished. GERRY ADAMS MP: Well the Lord helps those who help themselves and one of the very good things that pro-agreement Unionists could do, is to tell the world and their voters that they are pro-agreement Unionists and that they do support the agreement. WATSON: Here in the Fermanagh and South Tyrone constituency, David Trimble's party used to be given a clear run by fellow Unionists. But no longer. This time anti-agreement Unionists are mounting a challenge and in doing so, could split the Unionist vote and hand the seat to Sinn Fein. That in turn would bolster their ambitions to become the largest nationalist party across the province. But in some other seats David Trimble's candidates could lose out to those of Ian Paisley's DUP and a nightmare scenario for the British government is that on June eighth, David Trimble himself becomes the only pro-agreement Unionist left at Westminster. WEIR: David Trimble is the one that perhaps has the best chance of getting in, I think would be favourite in his own constituency but looking around the other seats, it's difficult to see where you could predict any degree of certainty of a pro-agreement, another pro-agreement Ulster Unionist getting elected. WATSON: James Cooper, is vice president of the Ulster Unionists and a staunch supporter of David Trimble. Along with the Chairman of the local Chamber of Commerce, he's inspecting a creamery which closed down recently and is discussing the need to bring more investment to the far West of the province. He feels the optimism which accompanied the signing of the Good Friday agreement three years ago needs to be sustained; so long as the peace process continues, business opportunities will improve. JAMES COOPER: For the first time, we have real prospects of attracting in inward investment money from the United States and from Europe. We are now at a stage where we can credibly sell Northern Ireland as an attractive place for investment and that is something that has been a change and a significant change with the agreement, so we must sell it, on the basis of providing stability and opportunity and that's one of the back-bones of the agreement. WATSON: Maurice Morrow, a Minister at Stormont, has been selected by the DUP to fight Fermanagh and south Tyrone; he's angry that David Trimble is sitting in government with Sinn Fein; he says they're inextricably linked to the IRA, which attacked his home town of Ballygawley. MAURICE MORROW MLA: About fifteen years ago, the IRA arrived with a barrack buster bomb and forced their way in and shot two constables here in the police station. WATSON: There's speculation Maurice Morrow may stand down to avoid splitting the Unionist vote and handing the seat to Sinn Fein but he says he'd only do so if the Unionists replace their candidate with someone more to his liking. MORROW: When the Ulster Unionists signed the Belfast agreement they aligned themselves on the same side of the agreement as Sinn Fein IRA and the SDLP. They effectively split the Unionist community - that in fact was the design of the Belfast agreement, to split the Unionist community and they have said that they are putting someone up who is a protagonist for the Belfast agreement. We are now left with no choice, but to go forward and stand in this election and give the people in this constituency who are opposed to the agreement an opportunity to do that in this forthcoming election. WATSON: At the last General Election David Trimble's Ulster Unionists were clearly the largest party with ten seats at Westminster. The SDLP had three, while Sinn Fein and Ian Paisley's DUP had two apiece, with an independent candidate taking the remaining seat. But last year the Ulster Unionists lost South Antrim to the DUP in a by-election and may not win it back. And now, some Ulster Unionists fear that as many as five more parliamentary seats across the province could be vulnerable to the other main parties. Here at the devolved assembly at Stormont, Alex Kane is an adviser to pro-agreement Unionists; and he's press officer of the Ginger Group Reunion, which tries to get the benefits of the Good Friday Agreement through to all Unionists. but he's not hopeful. Although the local elections were delayed here at David Trimble's request, Alex Kane fears that up to a third of the party's councillors could also be on the way out. ALEX KANE: Well I think the nightmare scenario would be three seats, but if they had the local council elections on the same day, they could also lose fifty to sixty councillors. But the other problem of course facing Trimble is that a majority of the candidates, that Unionists will have to vote for, are anti-agreement, so no matter how successful he personally is, he cannot win on that simple headcount. WATSON: One of these anti-agreement Unionists prominent in the ranks of David Trimble's party is assembly member Peter Weir. He's been selected as the official Unionist candidate to fight the seat of North Down at the next General Election -though he's currently in a protracted court battle to stop pro-agreement Unionists from deselecting him. WEIR: I think what is happening in North Down is symptomatic of a lot of the tensions that are existing within various parts of the country, within the party and I think that can't bode well for a good electoral performance. If you've got a party where a lot of people don't like each other, where they strongly disagree with one another, that's not something which the electorate will find particularly attractive, irrespective even the merits of the agreement or not. WATSON: David Trimble could do with a bit of help from some unlikely allies - if the IRA begin decommissioning ahead of the General Election then David Trimble's electoral prospects would be improved. But don't hold your breath. Over the years Sinn Fein have been gaining on the SDLP as the predominant Nationalist Party and if they do even better at this election then that could be seen as endorsing a strategy which has brought Sinn Fein into government without the IRA handing over any of their guns. Michelle Gildernew is the fresh face of new look, soft focus Sinn Fein - but she intends to build support in the constituency by evoking the memory of a previous Republican victory. It was twenty years ago that a prisoner on hunger strike became the MP for Fermanagh and South Tyrone MICHELLE GILDERNEW: Bobby Sands' victory was our first stab at electoral politics in this phase of the party's history and I hope that I can live up to the legacy that Bobby Sands has left. WATSON: Michelle Gildernew isn't in a mood to offer succour to David Trimble. GILDERNEW: It doesn't help when other supposedly pro-agreement parties continue to dig themselves deeper into holes of their own making. So I think you know there is no chance of the IRA decommissioning this side of an election but it has to be said too, the IRA's commitment and their courage and the initiatives that they are taking have not been reciprocated and have not been recognised by the Unionist Party. WATSON: While Sinn Fein's candidate expects no decommissioning before the election, their President can't guarantee that the IRA will make any progress before the end of June, which is the government - and David Trimble's - proposed date for the handing over of terrorist weapons ADAMS: It isn't a deadline. I mean look at the Good Friday Agreement, clearly it isn't a deadline. I actually see personally and as part of a leadership that it's crucial that we go back into negotiations with an increased mandate. I think it's crucial to send a message to those who don't like Sinn Fein's peace strategy, send a message off that it's popular, that it's endorsed. I think it's necessary to vindicate what we have been doing. WATSON: It's likely that the SDLP will retain the three Westminster seats that they hold, but if enough SDLP supporters vote tactically for Sinn Fein then Gerry Adams' party has the potential not only to hold the two seats they have but to add two more, taking their tally to four. ADAMS: There is a four per cent, less than four per cent separating the four main parties in the north and in this election, or the next election, Sinn Fein intends to be the largest party. Not the largest party in the nationalist side, but the largest party in the state WATSON: Indirectly, this man could help David Trimble; he's Tommy Gallacher, SDLP candidate in Fermanagh and South Tyrone, with a high enough vote he could split the Nationalists and prevent Sinn Fein taking the seat; he reminds voters that he has always argued for peaceful change. TOMMY GALLAGHER MLA: I remember being here in the late Sixties at a rally where there about a couple of thousand people from County Fermanagh who took part in their local Civil Rights march from the far end of town walking up to the Diamond here. The Civil Rights campaign was overtaken by the violence and for many years human rights suffered right across the community. WATSON: His party has rejected an electoral pact with Sinn Fein to boost Nationalist representation so he'll be competing with Gerry Adams's party for votes. GALLAGHER: I am very confident because of the role the SDLP has played throughout its lifetime that we will continue to be the largest party on the Nationalist side and we'll continue to be the party best placed to deliver all elements of the Good Friday Agreement. WATSON: But Trimble-aid could take a more direct form. The former US President Bill Clinton will return to Northern Ireland next month to help sell the benefits of the agreement to all communities. But it's hoped his intervention may just rekindle the waning enthusiasm of some pro-agreement Unionists. And the British government will also do what they can to sustain confidence in the Good Friday Agreement this side of the elections The all-party negotiations here at Hillsborough on the peace process have been stalled since January but the government wants to resurrect them as soon as the elections are over. The Northern Ireland Office has drawn up a series of briefing papers looking beyond the election and one discusses the possible consequences of a Unionist meltdown in the polls. There are fears that not enough pro-agreement Unionists will turnout on election day. Over the next few weeks there will be a campaign to try to boost voter turnout and government ministers while being careful not to endorse any particular party, will be co-ordinating a series of speeches to try to sell the economic benefits of the Good Friday Agreement. The local paper in Fermanagh was founded by William Trimble - apparently no relation to David. But the better known Trimble may regret having no editorial control because the paper's front page highlights the continuing battles within Unionism. So if all the attempts to persuade enough pro-agreement unionists to go to the polls fail, then the predominance of the Ulster Unionist Party is under threat and that would spell bad news for David Trimble. WEIR: I think he would have grave difficulty if we find ourselves as the second party of Unionism. I think that people would find that very difficult within the party to accept and I think there will be at least a need for a change of direction for the party and potentially under those circumstances I think the leader would have to look at his position as well. WATSON: The people of Northern Ireland will be hoping that the peace of the Fermanagh countryside will become everlasting. But the local and General Elections could be a watershed here. If enough Ulster Unionist support seeps to Ian Paisley's DUP, then David Trimble could see the backing for a pro-agreement strategy in his own party drifting away. HUMPHRYS: Iain Watson reporting there. JOHN HUMPHRYS: The railways are still not back to normal. Some say it'll be a very long time before they are. And yet railway companies are pushing up the cost of a ticket. This past week Virgin announced a whacking ten per cent increase for some journeys. How can they get away with it? Should they be allowed to get away with it? The Transport Minister is Lord MacDonald. Passengers understandably are furious Lord MacDonald, should they be allowed to get away with it? LORD MACDONALD: Well at the moment there's nothing that we can do about that particular rise which I think is very regrettable because it's not the kind of message you want to be sending out when you are getting passengers back on the railway. All I can say is if you look over the last four years, in fact the train fares have gone up at the same rate as inflation. We have got a formula that says for a lot of the fares there has to be inflation minus one per cent. But they are freeing companies like Virgin to change their fares on some schedules and that's what Virgin have been doing here. HUMPHRYS: And it sends completely the wrong signal doesn't it. I mean you've asked them to explain themselves to the Strategic Rail Authority but in reality that's a bit of an empty gesture, because as you say there's nothing you can do. MACDONALD: Well it's really for the passengers to look at it and say well can we get to Manchester more quickly by air or by coach. In the end... HUMPHRYS: ..or by car... MACDONALD: ..or by car, is there an alternative service we can take. They are in a marketplace, as I say it's doesn't help my strategy that they should behave like that but there's nothing that we can do to a sovereign company like Virgin to inhibit them on this particular area. Although we do pay them considerable subsidies every year on Virgin and they have also had money back from the Strategic Rail.. a bit from the Strategic Rail Authority but a lot of money back from Railtrack in terms of compensation. But they still say they're losing tens of millions and that's the reason for the increase. HUMPHRYS: You say it doesn't help your strategy. The fact is it blows a huge hole in the side of it doesn't it, because you want people to use their cars less and to use the trains more. MACDONALD: We do but this is only one particular line. These are the Inter-City lines that are suffering most. If you look at the overall figures you'll find that in fact we have got over ninety per cent of trains running normally now and over eighty per cent of those running punctually. HUMPHRYS: Can I come to that in just a moment because you've mentioned the question of money - who gets what money and in a sense passengers are losing twice here aren't they. Their trains are delayed so they lose in that sense, then what happens is that the TOC - the Train Operating Companies - have to be bailed out. Now there are three ways in which they can be bailed out. One is you push the fares up as has just been happening, two you cut back on investment which you don't want to see happen of course, and three more money goes from the taxpayer. You have already given them, we have already given them one-point five billion pounds and that is the only option isn't it, ultimately, is to give them more money out of the public purse if we want to see things improve.? MACDONALD: No, I don't believe that's the case John. I think that what we've got to do is make sure we get value for money for what the public invests in the railway and the public has to invest in the railway to keep the fares down. I think that's inevitable, in fact our subsidy.. HUMPHRYS: Invest more is what I am saying.. MACDONALD: We are investing more of course... HUMPHRYS: More still is what I am saying.. MACDONALD: We may have to invest more still because we are planning to invest sixty billion private and public across the next ten years in improving the railways, but if we want a bigger better railway then we will have to have public investment but we want to see private investment alongside that. HUMPHRYS: Yeah, but the problem with that private investment is that's fine and half of that sixty billion is supposed to be private isn't it. But the trouble is that's tied into increasing use of the railways, in other words tied in increase in income. If we start seeing people using the railways less as we surely will if prices go up like this, then that isn't going to happen. MACDONALD: But remember this is a very selective Virgin increase, across the railways as a whole, as many people now are using the railways as this time last year, so there hasn't been that Hatfield effect... HUMPHRYS: ..it's dropped from what it was... MACDONALD: It's dropped a little bit than what it would have been but in fact the figures do stand up, there are as many people as were travelling this time last year. There's over ninety per cent of the trains are now running normally, there's about eighty per cent of those running punctually and it was about eighty-six per cent before Hatfield. So it's not an entirely bleak picture. HUMPHRYS: Not entirely bleak but pretty bleak because those figures are predicated on a continuing increase, not a leveling off, a continuing increase and you seem to be acknowledging that you may have to give them more money than it is planned from the public purse. MACDONALD: We plan to put in about sixty billion out of the hundred and eighty billion in the ten year transport plan. There will be...a few billion more will go to rail as against other modes like road. So yes it will be a little bit more there but we believe that we will get better value for money than you would have got in the past because we have got tougher regulation here and we believe better leadership through this new Strategic Rail Authority that we've set up. HUMPHRYS: Let's look at this question of re-nationalising the railways. To which of course, the government says absolutely no way. But why not use all this investment that we're talking about, if you're going to give one and a half billion pounds is the figure I've just mentioned, to Railtrack. Why not use that to buy a stake in Railtrack, rather than just say look, here's the money, now you invest it as you think fit, or as we think fit maybe. But nonetheless, why not say we will have a stake in it because what the Select Committee who looked into this whole question of re-nationalising said, it is unacceptable that the taxpayer should be compelled to bale out a private monopoly company that has acted so incompetently without taking any stake in the company in return. Had a point, didn't it? bail MACDONALD: Well, emotionally and politically, you've got to have some sympathy with that. It looks, on the face of it, like a solution. But I think in closer inspection you discover that it takes too long, it costs too much, there would be years of upheaval. There would be an investment freeze across the railways and what we're looking for is the doubling of investment in the railways really against recent times and that would be delayed for many, many years and we don't believe it's the right course to take. What we need is more investment and better management and better regulation. That way, we'll drive the growth of we believe of about fifty per cent more passengers across the next ten years. HUMPHRYS: But it's possible that you're going to meet an awful lot of voter resistance here, isn't it. If you keep piling taxpayers' money into a system and the company that is running that system is making a pig's ear of it and it's tax and its shareholders ultimately benefit from that money, people will say, what's going on here? Why should my hard earned taxpayers' money go to help out these people? MACDONALD: Well, you can see that the deal that we did with Railtrack this week, in fact reduced their share price because the shareholders realised that in under our deal they wouldn't get any extra dividends, the money would have to be invested in making sure that that railway ran properly because we've got a Regulator who's looking at it very closely. We still want to expand the railway but we are not prepared to let Railtrack be an inhibition on that, so we've said to Railtrack, you can still invest but it'll be alongside the Strategic Rail Authority and other groupings who will help us expand the railway as in fact Bechtel and others have helped us build this new Channel Tunnel rail link. We'll be doing the same in many other areas of the rail network. HUMPHRYS: Their ability to invest of course is directly effected by the reduction in their share price. If a company is worth a fraction of what it once was then it has less to invest and it can attract less investment. MACDONALD: Well, if a company is badly managed, then its shareholders will be punished and that's what's happened this week. The shareholders then decide that the board representing their interests will have to take action make sure the company... HUMPHRYS: ...so British Rail, British Rail, I'm going back a bit aren't I, Railtrack is badly managed, there's no doubt in your mind about that? MACDONALD: Railtrack admits it's been badly managed... HUMPHRYS: So why then, it returns to the question of taking a stake in it doesn't it. Yes in the short term there would be some complications, as you say, but in the long run, if we had this badly managed company and we keep pumping money into it, it's chucking good money after bad, isn't it? MACDONALD: Well Railtrack will be appointing a Public Interest Director, who will keep an eye, we believe, on it. HUMPHRYS: One man? MACDONALD: Well, it'll be somebody in the board and well positioned inside the board to be the eyes and the ears for the public interest... HUMPHRYS: ...only one vote... MACDONALD: I don't think it'll come to a vote, I don't think it's about that. Railtrack isn't I accept a normal PLC, a normal public company because it's got a vital national asset and also it receives public subsidy. We have therefore come up with a statement of principles that covers operations with Railtrack and we believe that that's the best way forward, more management, better investment. We believe it'll be an expanded railway and a better run railway in future. HUMPHRYS: Right, better run railway. When is it going to be back to normal? You keep using this figure of ninety per cent but in December you said that at the end of June, that's last December you said at the end of January, things, January, not June, everything would be fine, in January, you said it would be over by Easter, all these problems, what's the latest forecast? You're in danger of losing your credibility aren't you? MACDONALD: Well, we said that by the end of January largely back to normal. What we've got now is about ninety-two per cent, these are the figures that I got just a day or two ago, ninety-two per cent of all trains running - but around the country and in the commuter areas it's about a hundred per cent. In terms of punctuality, as I say the latest figures I have show about eighty-two per cent on punctuality, as against eighty-six per cent pre Hatfield. HUMPHRYS: ...well... MACDONALD: And punctuality's defined in a various, you know, in a number of various ways, but it's trains that are within five minutes... HUMPHRYS: ...and in some cases they cook the books in effect, because the timetable's been rewritten so often, nobody knows what punctual means any longer. I mean if I give you an example of the West Anglia Great Northern, it won't be back to its pre Hatfield state until, that's cross-country of course I'm talking about now, until next year. MACDONALD: We've got about two or three of the lines where we have problems, west of Exeter for instance, London to Norwich, London to Milton Keynes and of course we've got a lot of work going on on the West Coast Main Line as well because that's the biggest engineering project of its kind in Europe, about six billion pounds of work being done there. So that's the other paradox here, that we're investing at last to try and upgrade the British railways which have been starved of investment for decades, but there's a cost there in disruption. When we talk about the speed restrictions we have post Hatfield, but at any normal time on the railroad there's about two-hundred speed restrictions on and unfortunately, that will continue as we rebuild the railway, but we believe... HUMPHRYS: ...exactly... MACDONALD: ...but we believe through that rebuilding we will get to a railway which runs much better... HUMPHRYS: ...when... MACDONALD: ...we've said that we're very largely back to normal by Easter, by May, the Regulator has, the Regulator... HUMPHRYS: ...that is not the experience of the passengers, it really isn't... MACDONALD: It depends as I say as how you interpret these figures and you're obviously understandably querulous John, but what I'm told by the companies and I don't believe that they would be misleading me, is that we are largely back to normal with over ninety per cent of these trains running and for instance, in the commuter areas around London, closer to a hundred per cent. HUMPHRYS: Maybe you should get out on the trains more and talk to the companies less... MACDONALD: Well, I do. I was on them just yesterday and fortunately they both ran on time. HUMPHRYS: Well, I talk to a lot of people who use them and they say, they're rubbish, not to put too fine a point on it. MACDONALD: Yes, I can understand the frustration. I share the frustration of the passengers but I assure you we are investing to make it better. HUMPHRYS: Lord MacDonald, thank you very much indeed. HUMPHRYS: And that's it for this week and indeed until after Easter. We'll be back on April 29, in the meantime, if you're on the Internet, don't forget our web-site. Good afternoon. ...oooOooo.... 24 FoLdEd
NB. This transcript was typed from a transcription unit recording and not copied from an original script. Because of the possibility of mis-hearing and the difficulty, in some cases, of identifying individual speakers, the BBC cannot vouch for its accuracy.