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PAUL WILENIUS: In the wacky world of fantasy
politics, William Hague would be Prime Minister.
WILLIAM HAGUE: This is what is at stake
in this election.
WILENIUS: Brave anti-euro warrior
fights off threat to currency.
HAGUE: I think we should keep the
Pound.
WILENIUS: But in the real world,
it didn't quite work out like that. Labour's back in power and the Tories
are back to the drawing board; most voters just didn't fancy their policies.
Tony Blair's now the biggest
thing in the Houses of Parliament since - well, Mrs Thatcher. Pro-Europeans
feel he's so powerful he can sweep aside any opposition and cuddle up closer
to our continental cousins. But they also feel he can go further and rev
up the bandwagon for a dash to the euro.
LORD SIMON: I think it is very important
and I think we should commit ourselves now to forming the policy on joining
the euro when we have this unique opportunity of political endorsement
and economic conditions running rather well for us.
WILENIUS: Loading up for an early
morning dash across the Channel, gardening enthusiasts from Hoo in Kent.
Like many British they love a trip to France, to pick up cheap tobacco,
wine and food. But although they might like to bring back the goodies,
many people don't want to take the route of closer integration with Europe.
Indeed they wouldn't be amused, if more power was handed over to Europe
and the Pound was replaced by the euro.
UNNAMED WOMAN: Mainly when we go to Europe, we
usually go have a meal, you know buy some beer for my husband.
UNNAMED MAN: I don't like the French food,
no, it tends to hop off your plate if you're not careful.
WILENIUS: With the election over,
pro-Europeans want take us in a new direction, towards a euro referendum.
Already signposted for next autumn. But there are obstacles. Not least,
most people want to stop the euro campaign dead in its tracks. So it'll
be a big job to change their views and some say the push to win over the
public will start immediately because many voters hate giving up anything
British.
BILL RAMMELL MP: I think there's now a real opportunity
to launch a major national debate on the Euro and I hope and believe that
we will start doing that now and I think there are indications already
from what the Prime Minister has said that that seems to be his intention.
NEIL KINNOCK: I think it's probably over
this weekend that the orchestra will take their places, begin to tune up
and then within a matter of months certainly, will be playing at full
blast.
WILENIUS: Once the pro-euro bandwagon's
rolling, it'll include business leaders, many Labour MPs and activists.
But the great British public will need more persuading. They'll have to
be bombarded with information and support for the euro, if they are to
be pushed towards a Yes vote. Many voters are still waiting for a lead
from the very top, to give the campaign new momentum. Those leading the
charge feel the battle could be lost, unless politicians speak up soon.
ADAIR TURNER: I think the support of the
leading members of the government is absolutely crucial to winning a referendum
on the Euro. I mean let's be clear, business people, trade unionists,
members of civil society can play their subsidiary role in this argument,
but political arguments and even though it has a large economic aspect,
it's basically part of the business of politics, is won by politicians.
SIMON BUCKBY: As we've seen over the weekend
large, sections of the business community have come out already and said
that they now stand ready to make a contribution to the argument about
Britain's role in Europe. They're desperate to make that argument, their
businesses are suffering because we're outside the single currency but
they can't make that argument on their own. They need to have the argument
led by the politicians and as we've seen in the last month, no politicians
in this country know how to persuade public opinion like Gordon Brown and
Tony Blair do.
WILENIUS: Despite Britain's love
affair with its heritage, Tony Blair says he's a big fan of the euro.
But many Union Jack waving voters, the patriotic press and some businessmen
feel the single currency is well - just not British. So he'll have to
persuade them otherwise and that the economic conditions are just right
before we take the plunge.
Our day trippers change
their pounds for French Francs. The exchange rate is at the very heart
of the issue. The last time Britain linked up with European currencies
it ended in disaster on Black Wednesday. Organisations like Business for
Sterling are sceptical and will urge Blair to steer clear of the euro forever
and even some of his own MPs feel it would be economically dangerous to
dump the Pound.
JIM COUSINS MP: I do not think it's workable
and sustainable in the longer run or in the interests of the British people,
certainly not of people in the Newcastle area, that we should lock onto
the euro at the present levels of exchange rates. It isn't workable, it
wouldn't be sustainable.
WILENIUS: Arriving in Calais our
shoppers relax for their short trip to the hypermarket. But if the pro-Europeans
are hoping for an equally smooth ride through Cabinet, they might be in
for a surprise.
The appointment of Jack
Straw as Foreign Secretary may have been seen by some as a boost for the
No camp. But pro-Europeans believe he's dropped his previous scepticism
about the euro, and that this makes a referendum more likely. But there
are deeper concerns that the government might be held back from fully supporting
a Yes campaign by Chancellor Gordon Brown.
TURNER: I think it's very difficult
to work out exactly where individuals are on this issue. I think clearly
a successful referendum campaign requires the unified commitment of the
most senior people in the government. I think Gordon Brown will look very
carefully at the economics.
JANET BUSH: The question of whether Brown
and Blair are split on this issue is the one that exercises all of us in
planet Westminster and beyond. It is very difficult to tell. Blair I think
really does want to go in to Europe. I think he sees an opportunity for
himself to be a leader in Europe and to do that he feels we have to be
in the euro, I fundamentally disagree, I think he could be a major player
in Europe without the euro.
WILENIUS: For our shoppers, it's
clear that making the right choice is difficult, when there's so much on
offer. For government it's even more of a problem, especially when the
economy's involved.
So Gordon Brown has piled
up five economic tests before even considering a euro referendum and he
won't even start to assess them until after the public campaign. Making
public opinion the most important thing Ministers will sample.
RAMMELL: I certainly believe that
public opinion can be in the longer term turned in favour of Britain participating
in the single European currency. If you look at the detailed polling evidence
and then you also look at your own experience, talking to people on the
door step. Yes, opposition is wide to the single currency, but it's fairly
shallow, there's no issue on which people actually change their view so
quickly as Europe and the single currency.
BUSH: British opinion has
been solid for two years, it's even risen and I think funnily enough, rather
than thinking that the Conservatives fighting on the euro and losing so
badly in this election being bad for our campaign, I think it actually
liberates us because the only way we're going to fight this and win is
for it to be a truly cross party campaign.
WILENIUS: Tony Blair could be the
toast of Europe, if only he can get Britain into the euro. But if he calls
a referendum and loses, he could wreck his leadership and his government.
Not something he'd like. So he'll only complete the dash for the euro,
if he's absolutely sure he can win.
So before Tony Blair marches
the great British public off to the voting booths to decide on going for
the euro, he'll need to listen to the views of people like our day trippers
on the matter.
UNNAMED MAN: I'm used to the pound and
I think if we go into the euro, we'll have to give all our gold reserves
over to the European Parliament or whatever and we'll have no say in the
future, all our taxes will come from over in the continent.
UNNAMED MAN: I'd like to keep the pound,
this government today seems to be hell bent on pushing it through, whether
we like it or not.
UNNAMED WOMAN: The only thing is, I do think that
if we, with the pound you, all the currency going from one country to the
other, you've still got one currency, you don't have to keep changing do
you, that's about the only thing. But as for the euro, I'm totally against
it.
UNNAMED MAN: I'd vote against it, I wouldn't
certainly vote for, I'd vote for coming out of the Common Market altogether
to be quite honestly.
WILENIUS: Our shoppers have had
a hard day plundering the French supermarkets. But the government is wide
awake to the risks, if it mishandles the euro issue. It could sink it.
BUSH: I think that one
of the reasons that Gordon Brown is so cautious is that he knows that a
referendum, whatever the result, could be a real risk to Labour continuing
in power. If they hold a referendum and it's a No vote, their credibility
is crushed. If they hold a referendum and there's a Yes vote, and Tony
Blair gets his wish and we go in, what if then the economy goes belly up,
because of the rigidities of being in the euro, then the electorate will
blame them till kingdom come for having forced the British people into
that decision.
WILENIUS: Even on the way back
over the Channel, there's no escaping the right wing press. Millions of
people will be fed anti-euro stories, many from the well financed No campaign.
So the government will have to try to get its message across to the people,
despite the views of the big press barons. This won't be easy and there's
expected to be a long and bloody battle for the hearts and minds of the
British voters.
BUSH: Both sides are arming
themselves for a very very big battle ahead. So you will see a huge push
from pro-euro people, you will see an aggressive campaign against the euro.
LORD SIMON: I do think it's crucial and
I think political leadership is required and is well ceased of the importance
of this decision. Neither Gordon Brown nor Tony Blair in my view is under
any illusion as to how important this is for the strategic positioning
of the UK. To give it greater strength within a strong union and within
a globalising world where this capacity can only enhance Britain's influence
and I think they understand that and they will do what I believe is the
patriotic thing, which is to enhance our European standing, rather than
running away from the challenge.
WILENIUS: In two years' time Tony
Blair could be celebrating another historic victory. This time over the
euro. But it could be just fantasy politics because he needs a sceptical
British public to join the party as well. Otherwise it could be his euro
dreams that are dashed.
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