BBC On The Record - Broadcast: 10.06.01

Film: LABOUR EURO FILM%3A Is Tony Blair now ready to risk everything and go for broke with a referendum soon on the Euro?



PAUL WILENIUS: In the wacky world of fantasy politics, William Hague would be Prime Minister. WILLIAM HAGUE: This is what is at stake in this election. WILENIUS: Brave anti-euro warrior fights off threat to currency. HAGUE: I think we should keep the Pound. WILENIUS: But in the real world, it didn't quite work out like that. Labour's back in power and the Tories are back to the drawing board; most voters just didn't fancy their policies. Tony Blair's now the biggest thing in the Houses of Parliament since - well, Mrs Thatcher. Pro-Europeans feel he's so powerful he can sweep aside any opposition and cuddle up closer to our continental cousins. But they also feel he can go further and rev up the bandwagon for a dash to the euro. LORD SIMON: I think it is very important and I think we should commit ourselves now to forming the policy on joining the euro when we have this unique opportunity of political endorsement and economic conditions running rather well for us. WILENIUS: Loading up for an early morning dash across the Channel, gardening enthusiasts from Hoo in Kent. Like many British they love a trip to France, to pick up cheap tobacco, wine and food. But although they might like to bring back the goodies, many people don't want to take the route of closer integration with Europe. Indeed they wouldn't be amused, if more power was handed over to Europe and the Pound was replaced by the euro. UNNAMED WOMAN: Mainly when we go to Europe, we usually go have a meal, you know buy some beer for my husband. UNNAMED MAN: I don't like the French food, no, it tends to hop off your plate if you're not careful. WILENIUS: With the election over, pro-Europeans want take us in a new direction, towards a euro referendum. Already signposted for next autumn. But there are obstacles. Not least, most people want to stop the euro campaign dead in its tracks. So it'll be a big job to change their views and some say the push to win over the public will start immediately because many voters hate giving up anything British. BILL RAMMELL MP: I think there's now a real opportunity to launch a major national debate on the Euro and I hope and believe that we will start doing that now and I think there are indications already from what the Prime Minister has said that that seems to be his intention. NEIL KINNOCK: I think it's probably over this weekend that the orchestra will take their places, begin to tune up and then within a matter of months certainly, will be playing at full blast. WILENIUS: Once the pro-euro bandwagon's rolling, it'll include business leaders, many Labour MPs and activists. But the great British public will need more persuading. They'll have to be bombarded with information and support for the euro, if they are to be pushed towards a Yes vote. Many voters are still waiting for a lead from the very top, to give the campaign new momentum. Those leading the charge feel the battle could be lost, unless politicians speak up soon. ADAIR TURNER: I think the support of the leading members of the government is absolutely crucial to winning a referendum on the Euro. I mean let's be clear, business people, trade unionists, members of civil society can play their subsidiary role in this argument, but political arguments and even though it has a large economic aspect, it's basically part of the business of politics, is won by politicians. SIMON BUCKBY: As we've seen over the weekend large, sections of the business community have come out already and said that they now stand ready to make a contribution to the argument about Britain's role in Europe. They're desperate to make that argument, their businesses are suffering because we're outside the single currency but they can't make that argument on their own. They need to have the argument led by the politicians and as we've seen in the last month, no politicians in this country know how to persuade public opinion like Gordon Brown and Tony Blair do. WILENIUS: Despite Britain's love affair with its heritage, Tony Blair says he's a big fan of the euro. But many Union Jack waving voters, the patriotic press and some businessmen feel the single currency is well - just not British. So he'll have to persuade them otherwise and that the economic conditions are just right before we take the plunge. Our day trippers change their pounds for French Francs. The exchange rate is at the very heart of the issue. The last time Britain linked up with European currencies it ended in disaster on Black Wednesday. Organisations like Business for Sterling are sceptical and will urge Blair to steer clear of the euro forever and even some of his own MPs feel it would be economically dangerous to dump the Pound. JIM COUSINS MP: I do not think it's workable and sustainable in the longer run or in the interests of the British people, certainly not of people in the Newcastle area, that we should lock onto the euro at the present levels of exchange rates. It isn't workable, it wouldn't be sustainable. WILENIUS: Arriving in Calais our shoppers relax for their short trip to the hypermarket. But if the pro-Europeans are hoping for an equally smooth ride through Cabinet, they might be in for a surprise. The appointment of Jack Straw as Foreign Secretary may have been seen by some as a boost for the No camp. But pro-Europeans believe he's dropped his previous scepticism about the euro, and that this makes a referendum more likely. But there are deeper concerns that the government might be held back from fully supporting a Yes campaign by Chancellor Gordon Brown. TURNER: I think it's very difficult to work out exactly where individuals are on this issue. I think clearly a successful referendum campaign requires the unified commitment of the most senior people in the government. I think Gordon Brown will look very carefully at the economics. JANET BUSH: The question of whether Brown and Blair are split on this issue is the one that exercises all of us in planet Westminster and beyond. It is very difficult to tell. Blair I think really does want to go in to Europe. I think he sees an opportunity for himself to be a leader in Europe and to do that he feels we have to be in the euro, I fundamentally disagree, I think he could be a major player in Europe without the euro. WILENIUS: For our shoppers, it's clear that making the right choice is difficult, when there's so much on offer. For government it's even more of a problem, especially when the economy's involved. So Gordon Brown has piled up five economic tests before even considering a euro referendum and he won't even start to assess them until after the public campaign. Making public opinion the most important thing Ministers will sample. RAMMELL: I certainly believe that public opinion can be in the longer term turned in favour of Britain participating in the single European currency. If you look at the detailed polling evidence and then you also look at your own experience, talking to people on the door step. Yes, opposition is wide to the single currency, but it's fairly shallow, there's no issue on which people actually change their view so quickly as Europe and the single currency. BUSH: British opinion has been solid for two years, it's even risen and I think funnily enough, rather than thinking that the Conservatives fighting on the euro and losing so badly in this election being bad for our campaign, I think it actually liberates us because the only way we're going to fight this and win is for it to be a truly cross party campaign. WILENIUS: Tony Blair could be the toast of Europe, if only he can get Britain into the euro. But if he calls a referendum and loses, he could wreck his leadership and his government. Not something he'd like. So he'll only complete the dash for the euro, if he's absolutely sure he can win. So before Tony Blair marches the great British public off to the voting booths to decide on going for the euro, he'll need to listen to the views of people like our day trippers on the matter. UNNAMED MAN: I'm used to the pound and I think if we go into the euro, we'll have to give all our gold reserves over to the European Parliament or whatever and we'll have no say in the future, all our taxes will come from over in the continent. UNNAMED MAN: I'd like to keep the pound, this government today seems to be hell bent on pushing it through, whether we like it or not. UNNAMED WOMAN: The only thing is, I do think that if we, with the pound you, all the currency going from one country to the other, you've still got one currency, you don't have to keep changing do you, that's about the only thing. But as for the euro, I'm totally against it. UNNAMED MAN: I'd vote against it, I wouldn't certainly vote for, I'd vote for coming out of the Common Market altogether to be quite honestly. WILENIUS: Our shoppers have had a hard day plundering the French supermarkets. But the government is wide awake to the risks, if it mishandles the euro issue. It could sink it. BUSH: I think that one of the reasons that Gordon Brown is so cautious is that he knows that a referendum, whatever the result, could be a real risk to Labour continuing in power. If they hold a referendum and it's a No vote, their credibility is crushed. If they hold a referendum and there's a Yes vote, and Tony Blair gets his wish and we go in, what if then the economy goes belly up, because of the rigidities of being in the euro, then the electorate will blame them till kingdom come for having forced the British people into that decision. WILENIUS: Even on the way back over the Channel, there's no escaping the right wing press. Millions of people will be fed anti-euro stories, many from the well financed No campaign. So the government will have to try to get its message across to the people, despite the views of the big press barons. This won't be easy and there's expected to be a long and bloody battle for the hearts and minds of the British voters. BUSH: Both sides are arming themselves for a very very big battle ahead. So you will see a huge push from pro-euro people, you will see an aggressive campaign against the euro. LORD SIMON: I do think it's crucial and I think political leadership is required and is well ceased of the importance of this decision. Neither Gordon Brown nor Tony Blair in my view is under any illusion as to how important this is for the strategic positioning of the UK. To give it greater strength within a strong union and within a globalising world where this capacity can only enhance Britain's influence and I think they understand that and they will do what I believe is the patriotic thing, which is to enhance our European standing, rather than running away from the challenge. WILENIUS: In two years' time Tony Blair could be celebrating another historic victory. This time over the euro. But it could be just fantasy politics because he needs a sceptical British public to join the party as well. Otherwise it could be his euro dreams that are dashed.
NB. This transcript was typed from a transcription unit recording and not copied from an original script. Because of the possibility of mis-hearing and the difficulty, in some cases, of identifying individual speakers, the BBC cannot vouch for its accuracy.