BBC On The Record - Broadcast: 10.06.01



==================================================================================== NB. THIS TRANSCRIPT WAS TYPED FROM A TRANSCRIPTION UNIT RECORDING AND NOT COPIED FROM AN ORIGINAL SCRIPT; BECAUSE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF MIS-HEARING AND THE DIFFICULTY, IN SOME CASES, OF IDENTIFYING INDIVIDUAL SPEAKERS, THE BBC CANNOT VOUCH FOR ITS ACCURACY ==================================================================================== ON THE RECORD RECORDED FROM TRANSMISSION: BBC ONE DATE: 10.06.01 ==================================================================================== JOHN HUMPHRYS: Good afternoon. Who will be leading the Tory Party in a couple of months from now and what direction will it take? I'll be talking to the man who wrote the last manifesto. Has he torn it up and does he want to start all over again? I'll be asking David Trimble if he's going to resign now that the Ulster Unionists have been given such a hammering at the polls. And after another landslide, will we soon be voting on the euro? That's after the news read by George Alagiah. NEWS HUMPHRYS: After his second landslide, is Tony Blair now ready to risk everything and go for broke with a referendum soon on the euro? And the Ulster Unionists were dealt a big blow at the election? I'll be asking David Trimble what it means for him and the future of the peace process. But first ... the state of the Conservative Party. The immediate question is who will be the new leader. The candidates are still mostly keeping their heads down but they'll soon be surfacing. And when they do they'll have to persuade the party that they know where to take it over the next four or five years. Clearly there has to be a new direction. But how radical must it be? How many of the old policies have to be thrown overboard? How radical can they afford to be without losing the support of their core supporters? I'll be talking to the man who wrote their last manifesto, David Willetts, after this report from Terry Dignan. TERRY DIGNAN: Has there ever been a darker hour in the history of the Conservative Party? Few here in Smith Square, home to the party's HQ, can recall anything quite as calamitous. The search has begun - both for an explanation of what went wrong - and for someone to lead the party into a bright new dawn. But it means revisiting the potentially divisive issues of Europe, taxation and the party's ability to adapt to the modern world. Two devastating election defeats have left the Conservative Party uncertain about its future. Many of its MPs feel radical changes are needed. But they can't agree on what direction the party should take. To unlock the reasons behind the latest landslide defeat, some Conservatives say where better to start than at Central Office where the party's campaign was planned and put into operation. MICHAEL HESELTINE: The strategy was to choose a number of issues which enabled the Party to be labelled as right-wing, hard-nosed, unsympathetic. JOHN MAPLES MP: If we continue to be obsessed with issues that concern us and don't concern the floating voters and we do so in terms which appear to them to be extreme we won't win elections, we won't gain their votes. LAURENCE ROBERTSON MP: We really do need to be very careful that we don't exclude the concerns of our great core support, which we've enjoyed for so many years, I think it is important that we keep our traditional values in the Conservative Party. DIGNAN: The prospect of a leadership contest is concentrating the minds of Conservative MPs on the kind of party they want to represent. No longer will William Hague sit at a desk trying to balance the concerns of floating voters against the party's traditional values. He has done the decent thing. The favourite to take over is Michael Portillo. Thinking it over, Ann Widdecombe. A strong contender would be Iain Duncan Smith. David Davis is being encouraged to stand. From the pro-European wing of the party, there's Kenneth Clarke, of course. Others who are said to be tempted are John Redwood and Andrew Lansley. In a series of ballots, Conservative MPs will whittle down the contestants to just two - they'll go forward to the next round, when party members will make the final choice as to who should lead them. But the path to power involves a detour into the past of Michael Portillo. He has been on a personal quest for a new political credo. Gone is the uncaring dogmatist. In his place a more tolerant Portillo, a Conservative who values cultural and sexual diversity - and who wants to appeal beyond the Tory core vote. TIM YEO MP: Any leader who's going to be successful must be prepared to take on in a much more inclusive way, the kind of dialogue which people in the centre, the floating voters, want to engage in and it does mean not just pleasing the readers of the Daily Mail and the Daily Telegraph. ALAN DUNCAN MP: I think the way for us to step into the middle ground which the likes of Ken Clarke and Michael Heseltine quite reasonably say we need to occupy, is to look at the social agenda more than anything else and I think the future of the Conservative Party lies in euro-sceptic, social liberalism, but I'd put the stress on the social liberalism. DIGNAN: But this search for a new kind of Conservatism fails to inspire some on the right of the party. They fear it leads nowhere. A better guide to success for them would be a renewed debate about how to achieve less Government and lower taxation. ERIC FORTH MP: I'm not sure I quite understand what this inclusive thing is, if it's not just words and where it leads in policy terms, but I don't think that's the way forward at all. Can't we have an adult, mature debate about whether or not the government is actually the best agency to be running, well I don't know, anything at all? I think we've got to get back into that debate and not be frightened off by people talking about this nonsense about lifestyle or whatever it is is now the trendy thing to discuss. DIGNAN: But others fear the party will never emerge from the shadows if it makes tax cuts a priority. They argue the election result showed that voters no longer share the Conservatives preoccupation with taxation. MAPLES: Most peoples concerns was improvement of public services and somehow they felt that you know tax cuts would be at the expense of those services. YEO: I think on the question of taxation, people at the moment do not feel over taxed, except perhaps on the issue of fuel tax where we are paying higher taxes than anywhere less in Europe. DIGNAN: Portillo's commitment to lower taxation is now questioned on the right. That could give an opportunity to, David Davis, who opted to chair the powerful Commons Public Accounts Committee rather than join the Shadow Cabinet. It means he lacks a high profile outside Parliament but his supporters are urging him to stand. FORTH: I'm hoping that my friend and colleague David Davis will offer himself as a potential leader of the party. I think that he's shown in the past four years as Chairman of the Public Accounts Committee that he's able to play a leading role in holding the government to account in a number of different ways and has done that I think very successfully. But he's also demonstrated that he's capable of real thought about policy, about what we are and what we want to be and about the way ahead. DIGNAN: Those who want a more tolerant, inclusive Conservative Party may face a battle in the coming weeks with the forces of social authoritarianism, those politicians who stress the importance of moral values. Their leading lights are regarded as Ann Widdecombe and Shadow Defence Secretary Iain Duncan Smith. But some Conservatives say the party has suffered enough from sounding tough. DUNCAN: I think it has looked too bossy and it's looked too nasty. I said to someone once you know it's all very well you wanting us to appear to be once again the stupid party but why make us the nasty party as well. There's no need for it. YEO: We need to have someone who looks friendly, who looks inclusive, who accepts a whole variety of different lifestyles, doesn't make judgements about them, but does help people enjoy the opportunities which exist. It needs to be a leader who recognises that we've got to reach out more widely and therefore is not simply going to say, I am going to talk about asylum seekers or the length of prison sentences. DIGNAN: Cue Ann Widdecombe. As Shadow Home Secretary her tough line on asylum and law and order wowed the party conference. But she also has strong views on marriage, abortion and homosexuality. A little bit too strong for some of her fellow Conservative MPs and for the euro-sceptics among them, there's another problem. BILL CASH MP: Nobody really knows quite where Ann Widdecombe stands on the European issue and I don't think myself that however much she may be able to do a good job on the party conference platform, that that would be in itself enough. I don't really see her as a credible leader of the Conservative Party. DIGNAN: Iain Duncan Smith's views on Europe are less of a mystery. He's said to be sympathetic to toughening the party's line on the single currency. Which means he could appeal to a large section of the party, including those who believe in traditional Conservative values on other issues. ROBERTSON: I think the Conservative Party does have to re-establish itself as a Conservative, as a Tory Party and that means belief in the nation state. It means belief in the family as a cornerstone of society and it means belief in the sound economy. CASH: I think Iain Duncan Smith does have incredible credibility, precisely because particularly on the European issue, he was not associated with for example signing up to the Maastricht Treaty. ANDREW ROSINDELL MP: No Conservative government that believes in the nation can ever give away control of its currency and abolish the pound and I think we have to be clear about that, it is a matter of principle. It's not an option for a few years and then we'll think again later, if we keep the pound we keep our independence. So this must be a permanent policy for the Conservative Party. DIGNAN: There are signs of even further restlessness over Europe. Although some are alarmed at the prospect of re opening internal party divisions, there are those who want to find a way to disentangle the United Kingdom from what is described as a European federal state. ROSINDELL: It's not a question of just being in the existing arrangements, we have to have new arrangements that suit Britain - the existing arrangements don't. NIGEL EVANS MP: The Conservative Party at Westminster is generally of the centre right but we are a broad church and I think that if the centre right decide that right we're going to get somebody who is seen as being very right wing or indeed a euro-sceptic right winger and spends most of their time trying to alienate the other side, then we are not only just going to alienate parts of the parliamentary party but I think we are going to alienate the country as well. DIGNAN: Kenneth Clarke would agree. He's been here before. He knows his support for joining the euro is shared by only a minority of Conservative MPs - although some argue he would be the most popular choice among the voters. MICHAEL HESELTINE: My own clear view is that the Party having decided how to reposition itself, should look for someone who can win and the evidence will be very clear as to who that will be and certainly at the moment, it is self-evidently Ken Clarke, who is streets ahead of anybody else in terms of what the public want. CASH: I don't believe that Kenneth Clarke would be a credible contender for a very simple reason, that he is clearly in favour of monetary union, he has said so. DIGNAN: But should the new Conservative leader at Westminster, in the cause of party unity, hold out an olive branch to pro-Europeans like Kenneth Clarke by bringing them back into the Shadow Cabinet - at the cost of allowing them to campaign in favour of joining the euro in a referendum. DAMIAN GREEN MP: It would be sensible for any leader at anytime not to set up a single policy area as a kind of qualification test. That any sensible party in a first past the post political system needs to be a broad church if it wants to win elections. EVANS: Members of the Shadow Cabinet and the Parliamentary Party are going to have to have the freedom to be able to speak out on issues like the single currency so that there wouldn't be a three line whip on the Parliamentary Party on that issue, we're just going to have to be more mature about it that's all. Ken has played an enormous role in the Conservative Party in the past and has been missed I have to say over this parliamentary session and I just hope that we are able to bring forward people of Ken's calibre into the Shadow Cabinet if he so wishes to play a part. CASH: I hear that some people are saying that Kenneth Clarke could come back into the Shadow Cabinet and also campaign in favour of the euro in a referendum. These things are mutually inconsistent and it would just be a fundamental illustration of the ridiculous position in which the Conservative Party could get itself. DIGNAN: The Conservative Party has started out on a new chapter in its long life in the most dismal of circumstances. Reminders of a glorious past serve only to reinforce the party's central dilemma - that it is a long way from finding the policies - or the leader - to inspire the voters it needs to win back power. HUMPHRYS: Terry Dignan reporting there. JOHN HUMPHRYS: David Willetts, forget about the personalities for a moment, let's look at the policies. When Labour were as soundly thrashed as you, not perhaps as soundly thrashed as you, they went back to the drawing board and what they produced was a new party. Forget about old Labour entirely, new Labour, new party. Are you going to do that? DAVID WILLETTS: We certainly need to have a radical rethink. We do need to think through what the Conservative Party stands for in the Twenty-first century. But in doing that we should be drawing on Conservative principles, we should be sticking to our basic beliefs, the importance of the family, the importance of our national identity, and we can do that, and I think we can do what the party managed to do so successfully after previous landslide defeats, after 1906, after 1945. We should draw on the resource of the Conservative tradition to modernise our party. HUMPHRYS: But to look at Labour again, the sorts of things they got rid of, and many of their members would have said, these were absolutely core beliefs, unilateral disarmament, Clause Four, that sort of thing went overboard. You don't have those exact policies of course, but you have policies that you hold as dear as that. Are some of those policies going to have to go? I'm trying to sort of test how radical you are prepared to be. WILLETTS: I think there will have to be a wholesale review of our policies. I think that's very important. But there's something even more important than that actually, which will come before that which is that the character of Conservatism in today's Britain, and I think it would be a mistake for us to get into lots of detail on specific policies at this stage. What we should be thinking about is the big picture. What is as Conservatives we believe? Winston Churchill gave some very good advice to Rab Butler after 1945, he said the Conservative Party should be offering a lighthouse, not a shop window, and I think that's advice that we should heed again today and the starting point has to be thinking through in very broad terms what we Conservatives are offering the country, and then the specific policies will follow. I think it will be a mistake to get into the detail of policy at this stage. HUMPHRYS: What do you think it means to be a Conservative today. WILLETTS: To my mind it means first of all, freedom, personal freedom, and freedom in a strong society, and a society that is stronger if government does less. I think one of the failures that we've got to learn from is that we presented the case for limited government if you like in economic terms. Nowadays, I think it's above all, it's an argument about that a good society is one in which people don't turn to the state to do everything and if you limit the role of the state you create more room for all the institutions and families and everything else that gives life its meaning that stands between the individual and the state. HUMPHRYS: It doesn't sound very radical. You've said exactly the same as that to me a year ago, five years ago, fifty years ago. WILLETTS: I think what's got to change is that we've got to do it in a way that shows we're content, we're comfortable with contemporary Britain. We should show that you know, we're not harking back to some previous age, we're going to be a party that redraws on what we see around us in Britain today, and so that for example I find that people are very distrustful of politicians... HUMPHRYS: ...always have been... WILLETTS: ...I think that the vote shows that there's more distrust of politicians than ever before. But what we've got from the Labour government is a party that's bringing politics into more and more nooks and crannies of our life. I think that less politics would be a very good message, but I think also for us, we do have to tackle the concerns that people have on, for example, Health and Education and there we've got lessons to learn from this election as well. HUMPHRYS: Does that mean then moving to, trying to re-occupy the centre ground as Tim Yeo and Alan Duncan said. WILLETTS: Well it's not a matter of defining ourselves against the Labour Party. We should do what we Conservatives think is right and what we Conservatives think is tackles the concerns of the vast majority of people, mainstream people in this country. Now it may be sometimes that involves saying things which are similar to things that Tony Blair says, we shouldn't be embarrassed or worried if that's the case, I think we will find that in many areas it involves that when we are true to our beliefs we say things that are very different. And on Health and Education for example, I think we will find, and we found it on the doorstep during this campaign, that teachers, doctors, police officers, are fearful of this incredible amount of political interference they have from this government in their day-to-day decisions. If we're going to have strong schools, strong hospitals, police forces that can get on with the job, then they have to be trusted, instead of at the moment having to sort of comply with every fatuous initiative launched by ministers in order to get forty-eight hours of media coverage. So we can see the glimmerings, but rather than get into the detail at this stage, I hope that my colleagues will be thinking and talking over the next few months just about what they believe as Conservatives and we should be proud of what we believe as Conservatives and we should all be open and honest about setting it out and ... HUMPHRYS: ...but, in a sense it's you that's sort of hiding in the detail, because that was an answer about detail, about telling on the doorstep that they don't like, you know police don't like the fact they've got to do this, teachers don't like all the forms they've got to fill in and that kind of thing. That wasn't really what I was trying to get at, I was trying to get at much more fundamental core stuff. And slagging off the Labour Party for the policies that have just returned them with a landslide victory again doesn't suggest any deep thinking does it? WILLETTS: Well let me put it in as broad a term as I can. The Conservative Party... HUMPHRYS: ...without it being just rhetoric... WILLETTS: ...ok, I'll do my best! The Conservative Party has been above all the party of personal freedom. And that has meant that we have been the party of economic freedom and through the 1980s it meant that those arguments about freedom were expressed as above all economic arguments. And I think that one of problems is that we've become the economics party, and people don't just want us to talk about economics, they want us to apply that Conservative belief in freedom across other areas of policy as well. And they want us to explain what we believe not just in economic terms. I think that's something that's very important. And I think secondly, and I hope you don't think this is, this is slagging off a government, because they have just got this massive majority, but I do think that if as Conservatives we believe in strong institutions, the message that more and more politics and more and more political interference is a threat to strong institutions and is not the way to make them stronger is another powerful Conservative theme. But I don't say that I don't personally, or any of us in the Party have got the answers today, what I want us to have, and I believe we will have, is a mature grown-up debate, after this second landslide defeat about what we do and I thought where your report was wrong, if I may say so, was that talking to all my colleagues over the past few days, very different from '97, not a sense of people all ganging up to fight an internecine battle, a very, I think a very different atmosphere in the party, that we have got lessons to learn, we want to work together on it, we want to do it in a co-operative spirit, there should be no personal abuse or personal criticism of any individuals and not least because our activists, our party members, those people that we wanted to have as parliamentary colleagues and sadly haven't won their seats, will not tolerate it if any of us get involved in those sort of personal arguments. HUMPHRYS: Well Terry Dignan didn't exactly have to beat those people over the head to offer what little personal or great deal of personal abuse if that's your view, that they offered in that film, there was plenty of it, the knives were going in. WILLETTS: I think that what I have..what I think you will find is that I think it would be true that for every person that you interviewed for that package, is that we can only do this if we draw on all the resources of the Conservative Party, that means not just learning the lessons of our previous historic defeats but also drawing on the expertise and the ideas and the thinking of all the senior figures in the party. And I think..I hope whoever is the leader, is approached in that spirit. HUMPHRYS: You said you mustn't rely..you mustn't be seen as the party of economic policy. Does that mean that you would be prepared to rethink your approach to tax and public services, that's to say, let's say tax and spend rather than tax and public services. You're always said, you are the party is associated with cutting taxes, that's how you want people to see you and reducing the size of the state. Would you be happy in future, for people to see you in another direction. I mean is that something that you are prepared to throw - not throw overboard but to change, to amend. WILLETTS: Well, I would approach it in the spirit again that we must look at what's going on around the world and I would look first to America and secondly at Europe and in America what I saw with George Bush, a very impressive Conservative victory is here was a guy, who for example had a policy on education vouchers but he didn't say, in the rather lazy way that we've got used to it, I'm going to introduce education vouchers, I'm going to have limited government, I'm going to have school choice, he presented his policy in terms of the need to raise educational standards in the most depraved parts of America. In other words, he presented something that drew on ideas that were if you like, right-wing, but he presented it, and I think quite rightly, as it was above all resting on a commitment to offer a better education for poorer Americans. HUMPHRYS: Yeah, but as you say that was seen as a right-wing - that was a right-wing policy. WILLETTS: But what he did, was it didn't say just oh, it has to be limited government and let's now apply this, sort of across the board. He said, what is the best device, what is the best means of raising educational standards in America and what he tackled it on, he didn't get bogged down in the mechanisms, in the hows, in the means, in all those technocratic questions. He began by people knowing that he was committed to a high quality education for all Americans and our starting point in education, to take that specific example, is therefore we are committed to a high quality education for everybody in this country. HUMPHRYS: Well of course you are, you would be daft if you weren't. WILLETTS: Yeah, but our problem has been that as we've got preoccupied with means, we've forgotten that we first of all have to establish credibility on that. HUMPHRYS: Yeah, but you know what politics is about, politics is about means, I mean it's all very well for politicians to say, yes we want better education for everyone, but of course you would say that. Then, they say well how are you going to do it Mr Willetts and you can either say, we will tax people more, spend more on schools, or you can say we will tax them less and have some sort of voucher system - profound difference. WILLETTS: But on tax, I think we..the policies that we had for lower taxes, for pensioners, for families, for savers, were on the doorstep when you explain them, but people hadn't registered what they were and they didn't understand why we were offering them. HUMPHRYS: So it's just about explaining your policies more, not having new policies. I thought this was going to be root and branch stuff. WILLETTS: It does have to be root and branch and I'm not..my personal view, for what it's worth, is that we will have to have a review of every policy, stage by stage. But what I'm saying... HUMPHRYS: ..but in the same context. WILLETTS: ..I don't think that that is..I think it would be wrong for the party to get into the detail of policy at this stage. What I think the party should instead be doing is something much more broad brush than that and as I said, I was going to go on to say, to talk about the lessons we can learn from Europe. I mean Europe, we've still got the position where on the welfare state, something that interests me a lot, Britain is to the left of continental Social Democrats, let alone Christian Democrats. If you look at health or education in France or Germany, we can see that those have much less centralised state interference than we've got here and so we as Conservatives should not be afraid of citing Europe as a positive example from which we can learn. HUMPHRYS: Right, what you seem to be saying so far anyway, is move rather than to the left, move to right. So, let me try and test you on another policy - not a policy but an approach if you like, because you don't want to talk about specific policies at this stage of course. Inclusiveness - throughout the campaign, the family - a husband and wife who are married and live together is the ideal. Which rather suggests to many people that you are slightly out of touch with the way life has changed - are you prepared to reconsider that? WILLETTS: Well you say the ideal. The way I approach it is quite simply on what the evidence shows about... HUMPHRYS: ...what Mr. Hague said, this is the best way of doing it, he said... WILLETTS: ...about, what the evidence shows about what is best for children, but I do think that we in the Party again have to say... HUMPHRYS: ...no, you see, he went further, invest in society said Mr. Hague. WILLETTS: Well what I'm saying is that it's clearly best for children if at all possible, they are brought up... by in a stable relationship by their parents and by and large that all the evidence shows that's a married relationship. But it doesn't follow from that that we sort of hate single parents, that we don't understand that relationships break down, that many parents who are bringing up their children on their own think they're often a responsible partner and that they're doing the decent thing trying to bring up a child on their own... HUMPHRYS: ...which is exactly what you've been saying all along. WILLETTS: But the point is that again, people thought that we were the party that was anti things, not in favour of things and what we've got to start off with is what we're in favour of and I would say John, that I think all of this, the tone of voice is very important, the tone of voice has to be one which is persuasive, and the frustration that I had, and I'm sure many other candidates had in the past few weeks, is that it wasn't so much the doubt, you never really got to a specific policy because people didn't think that we had their best interests at heart. HUMPHRYS: So it's about presentation, not policy? WILLETTS: No, you're calling it presentation, I would like to call it something... HUMPHRYS: ...well tone of voice is presentation really isn't it? I can either shout at you or I can ask you exactly the same question in very gentle terms. Same question, different tone. Different presentation. WILLETTS: I think it's about the character of the party and as the character of the party changes, so the policies will be formulated in a way that draw on what we've established as our party's identity. HUMPHRYS: I'm not quite sure I follow that but, so let me try one other way of testing you on where you're heading. Europe now, a number of people in that film said that, look Ken Clarke ought to be in the Cabinet, it's daft that he's not, we know what his views are on Europe, ought he to be, in the Shadow Cabinet I should say of course, ought he to be in the Shadow Cabinet? Because that would tell us a great deal wouldn't it about your inclusiveness politically within your own party. WILLETTS: I personally would like to see Ken Clarke and other leading figures in the party who are associated with him, I would like to see them once more playing a significant, much more significant role in the Conservative Party... HUMPHRYS: ...within the Shadow Cabinet perhaps? WILLETTS: ...within the Shadow Cabinet perhaps and I don't know... HUMPHRYS: ...and allowed to, sorry, it's important that I clarify this, and allowed to say the kinds of things that he has said in the past, allowed to express his views about the desirability of Britain joining economic and monetary union? WILLETTS: Well I think that we all know that Ken has very clear views on that and it's impossible to imagine that he wouldn't express them. Now how, what those mechanisms would be, I don't know, but it's not beyond the wit of man to work out a way in which the Conservative Party, which is still now operating with just over a-hundred and sixty members, we really ought to be able to draw on the talents and the expertise and the wisdom of every significant person in the parliamentary party and Ken is certainly one of those, and again, I think that the mood in the party in the past few days has not been to go around trying to exclude people, we do want to bring people like Ken in, and although most of us in the party do have a very clear view that we do not want Britain to join the Euro and that is clearly the majority view of the party, again, where we can, where we can learn is that that doesn't mean that we hate Europe and that there may be other areas where we can learn from Europe, I mean, if I may quote an example in areas I've been shadowing, pensions, we all complacently say oh Britain's got such marvellous funded pensions, they're all way behind on the Continent, well I've noticed in the past few years is that we've been losing ground and there is at last serious pension reform going on in places like Germany. So the real challenge for us is in Opposition is not to say everything in Britain is marvellous, they're all hopeless on the Continent, in some of these areas, we can say actually they're getting their act together, and under Labour, we're in danger of falling behind. HUMPHRYS: Just a final thought then on the leadership, I know you are not going to tell me who you support, but can I assume, at least I am going to assume from what you've been saying is that you don't want the social authoritarians running the party, in which case of course you would not want perhaps Ann Widdecombe, Iain Duncan Smith. Can I make that assumption? WILLETTS: Well, I'm not going to get into personalities, but I will say this, that as people get fed up with this Labour government, and they will, will they be saying to themselves, what we really need is stronger laws, more government intervention, a stronger set of instructions about how to lead their lives, or will they be saying, as I believe, we're fed up with the intervention, the regulation, the nannying, the prissiness, treat us as grown ups, give us more shape, you know more power to shape our own lives and I think that if that's going to be the reaction of the majority of the British people and if that seems to me to be consistent with basic Conservative principles, that's the direction in which the party should go. HUMPHRYS: Sounds more like Michael Portillo to me than somebody else? WILLETTS: Well, I'm not going to get into personalities and I think that whatever happens, I believe that's the direction in which the party should go. HUMPHRYS: David Willetts, thank you very much indeed. WILLETTS: Thank you John. HUMPHRYS: Depending on which newspaper you read this morning Tony Blair is either all set to call a referendum very soon on the euro - or Gordon Brown is saying No - he won't let it happen for some time to come. Well, many people are saying Mr Blair will never be in a stronger position than he is now but he's got to start trying to turn around public opinion very quickly. Paul Wilenius has been talking to some of those who say Mr Blair must show a lead. PAUL WILENIUS: In the wacky world of fantasy politics, William Hague would be Prime Minister. WILLIAM HAGUE: This is what is at stake in this election. WILENIUS: Brave anti-euro warrior fights off threat to currency. HAGUE: I think we should keep the Pound. WILENIUS: But in the real world, it didn't quite work out like that. Labour's back in power and the Tories are back to the drawing board; most voters just didn't fancy their policies. Tony Blair's now the biggest thing in the Houses of Parliament since - well, Mrs Thatcher. Pro-Europeans feel he's so powerful he can sweep aside any opposition and cuddle up closer to our continental cousins. But they also feel he can go further and rev up the bandwagon for a dash to the euro. LORD SIMON: I think it is very important and I think we should commit ourselves now to forming the policy on joining the euro when we have this unique opportunity of political endorsement and economic conditions running rather well for us. WILENIUS: Loading up for an early morning dash across the Channel, gardening enthusiasts from Hoo in Kent. Like many British they love a trip to France, to pick up cheap tobacco, wine and food. But although they might like to bring back the goodies, many people don't want to take the route of closer integration with Europe. Indeed they wouldn't be amused, if more power was handed over to Europe and the Pound was replaced by the euro. UNNAMED WOMAN: Mainly when we go to Europe, we usually go have a meal, you know buy some beer for my husband. UNNAMED MAN: I don't like the French food, no, it tends to hop off your plate if you're not careful. WILENIUS: With the election over, pro-Europeans want take us in a new direction, towards a euro referendum. Already signposted for next autumn. But there are obstacles. Not least, most people want to stop the euro campaign dead in its tracks. So it'll be a big job to change their views and some say the push to win over the public will start immediately because many voters hate giving up anything British. BILL RAMMELL MP: I think there's now a real opportunity to launch a major national debate on the Euro and I hope and believe that we will start doing that now and I think there are indications already from what the Prime Minister has said that that seems to be his intention. NEIL KINNOCK: I think it's probably over this weekend that the orchestra will take their places, begin to tune up and then within a matter of months certainly, will be playing at full blast. WILENIUS: Once the pro-euro bandwagon's rolling, it'll include business leaders, many Labour MPs and activists. But the great British public will need more persuading. They'll have to be bombarded with information and support for the euro, if they are to be pushed towards a Yes vote. Many voters are still waiting for a lead from the very top, to give the campaign new momentum. Those leading the charge feel the battle could be lost, unless politicians speak up soon. ADAIR TURNER: I think the support of the leading members of the government is absolutely crucial to winning a referendum on the Euro. I mean let's be clear, business people, trade unionists, members of civil society can play their subsidiary role in this argument, but political arguments and even though it has a large economic aspect, it's basically part of the business of politics, is won by politicians. SIMON BUCKBY: As we've seen over the weekend large, sections of the business community have come out already and said that they now stand ready to make a contribution to the argument about Britain's role in Europe. They're desperate to make that argument, their businesses are suffering because we're outside the single currency but they can't make that argument on their own. They need to have the argument led by the politicians and as we've seen in the last month, no politicians in this country know how to persuade public opinion like Gordon Brown and Tony Blair do. WILENIUS: Despite Britain's love affair with its heritage, Tony Blair says he's a big fan of the euro. But many Union Jack waving voters, the patriotic press and some businessmen feel the single currency is well - just not British. So he'll have to persuade them otherwise and that the economic conditions are just right before we take the plunge. Our day trippers change their pounds for French Francs. The exchange rate is at the very heart of the issue. The last time Britain linked up with European currencies it ended in disaster on Black Wednesday. Organisations like Business for Sterling are sceptical and will urge Blair to steer clear of the euro forever and even some of his own MPs feel it would be economically dangerous to dump the Pound. JIM COUSINS MP: I do not think it's workable and sustainable in the longer run or in the interests of the British people, certainly not of people in the Newcastle area, that we should lock onto the euro at the present levels of exchange rates. It isn't workable, it wouldn't be sustainable. WILENIUS: Arriving in Calais our shoppers relax for their short trip to the hypermarket. But if the pro-Europeans are hoping for an equally smooth ride through Cabinet, they might be in for a surprise. The appointment of Jack Straw as Foreign Secretary may have been seen by some as a boost for the No camp. But pro-Europeans believe he's dropped his previous scepticism about the euro, and that this makes a referendum more likely. But there are deeper concerns that the government might be held back from fully supporting a Yes campaign by Chancellor Gordon Brown. TURNER: I think it's very difficult to work out exactly where individuals are on this issue. I think clearly a successful referendum campaign requires the unified commitment of the most senior people in the government. I think Gordon Brown will look very carefully at the economics. JANET BUSH: The question of whether Brown and Blair are split on this issue is the one that exercises all of us in planet Westminster and beyond. It is very difficult to tell. Blair I think really does want to go in to Europe. I think he sees an opportunity for himself to be a leader in Europe and to do that he feels we have to be in the euro, I fundamentally disagree, I think he could be a major player in Europe without the euro. WILENIUS: For our shoppers, it's clear that making the right choice is difficult, when there's so much on offer. For government it's even more of a problem, especially when the economy's involved. So Gordon Brown has piled up five economic tests before even considering a euro referendum and he won't even start to assess them until after the public campaign. Making public opinion the most important thing Ministers will sample. RAMMELL: I certainly believe that public opinion can be in the longer term turned in favour of Britain participating in the single European currency. If you look at the detailed polling evidence and then you also look at your own experience, talking to people on the door step. Yes, opposition is wide to the single currency, but it's fairly shallow, there's no issue on which people actually change their view so quickly as Europe and the single currency. BUSH: British opinion has been solid for two years, it's even risen and I think funnily enough, rather than thinking that the Conservatives fighting on the euro and losing so badly in this election being bad for our campaign, I think it actually liberates us because the only way we're going to fight this and win is for it to be a truly cross party campaign. WILENIUS: Tony Blair could be the toast of Europe, if only he can get Britain into the euro. But if he calls a referendum and loses, he could wreck his leadership and his government. Not something he'd like. So he'll only complete the dash for the euro, if he's absolutely sure he can win. So before Tony Blair marches the great British public off to the voting booths to decide on going for the euro, he'll need to listen to the views of people like our day trippers on the matter. UNNAMED MAN: I'm used to the pound and I think if we go into the euro, we'll have to give all our gold reserves over to the European Parliament or whatever and we'll have no say in the future, all our taxes will come from over in the continent. UNNAMED MAN: I'd like to keep the pound, this government today seems to be hell bent on pushing it through, whether we like it or not. UNNAMED WOMAN: The only thing is, I do think that if we, with the pound you, all the currency going from one country to the other, you've still got one currency, you don't have to keep changing do you, that's about the only thing. But as for the euro, I'm totally against it. UNNAMED MAN: I'd vote against it, I wouldn't certainly vote for, I'd vote for coming out of the Common Market altogether to be quite honestly. WILENIUS: Our shoppers have had a hard day plundering the French supermarkets. But the government is wide awake to the risks, if it mishandles the euro issue. It could sink it. BUSH: I think that one of the reasons that Gordon Brown is so cautious is that he knows that a referendum, whatever the result, could be a real risk to Labour continuing in power. If they hold a referendum and it's a No vote, their credibility is crushed. If they hold a referendum and there's a Yes vote, and Tony Blair gets his wish and we go in, what if then the economy goes belly up, because of the rigidities of being in the euro, then the electorate will blame them till kingdom come for having forced the British people into that decision. WILENIUS: Even on the way back over the Channel, there's no escaping the right wing press. Millions of people will be fed anti-euro stories, many from the well financed No campaign. So the government will have to try to get its message across to the people, despite the views of the big press barons. This won't be easy and there's expected to be a long and bloody battle for the hearts and minds of the British voters. BUSH: Both sides are arming themselves for a very very big battle ahead. So you will see a huge push from pro-euro people, you will see an aggressive campaign against the euro. LORD SIMON: I do think it's crucial and I think political leadership is required and is well ceased of the importance of this decision. Neither Gordon Brown nor Tony Blair in my view is under any illusion as to how important this is for the strategic positioning of the UK. To give it greater strength within a strong union and within a globalising world where this capacity can only enhance Britain's influence and I think they understand that and they will do what I believe is the patriotic thing, which is to enhance our European standing, rather than running away from the challenge. WILENIUS: In two years' time Tony Blair could be celebrating another historic victory. This time over the euro. But it could be just fantasy politics because he needs a sceptical British public to join the party as well. Otherwise it could be his euro dreams that are dashed. HUMPHRYS: Paul Wilenius reporting there. JOHN HUMPHRYS: Well it was a bad result for people who support the Northern Ireland peace agreement. For David Trimble, the leader of the Ulster Unionists, it was verging on the disastrous. His party still has the largest number of seats but only just. Only one more than his old enemy Ian Paisley who wants to kill the agreement. Mr Trimble has already said he will resign his leadership if the IRA does not begin to get rid of its weapons. But many people are now saying he should go anyway. His credibility has been shattered. Mr Trimble is in our Belfast studio. Good afternoon, Mr Trimble. DAVID TRIMBLE: Good day. HUMPHRYS: It was a pretty dreadful result wasn't it. Can you stay on do you think? TRIMBLE: It was a great disappointment, there's no doubt about that. But let's bear in mind, let's put it in perspective, yes overall we lost three seats, but we made two gains. We defeated Bob McCartney, the leader of one of the anti-agreement Unionist parties, we defeated Willie McCrea and we put up our percentage share of the vote compared to the Assembly Election and I think that's the valid comparison. May I also correct something that you said, I have indicated that I shall not continue as First Minister beyond the 30th June unless the IRA carry out the promise they made to us a year ago, to put their weapons beyond use. The question of the party leadership is something which interestingly will be considered at the Annual General Meeting of the party which takes place just within a fortnight. The leadership is an annual election and I shall be there, I shall be available to be re-elected at that meeting and if anybody else wishes to put themselves up for that post, they are very welcome to do so and I shall be quite happy to abide the outcome of the votes of the council as I have been repeatedly throughout this process. HUMPHRYS: Do you have any indication that somebody else will put himself up? TRIMBLE: Well there's the usual sort of press speculation you get on this occasions. But what I am saying to you is that I am not scared of a challenge. I have been absolutely open with the party through this process and the party has held its nerve and that's what I would say to them at the moment, hold your nerve, you kept your nerve when the party got twenty-one point seven per cent of the vote in the Assembly Election, you kept your nerve when the party vote dropped to seventeen per cent in the European Election, don't lose your nerve because the vote has gone up to twenty-seven per cent this week. HUMPHRYS: But, I mean the problem is this isn't it, that most of the Unionists in Northern Ireland and most Unionist MPs in Northern Ireland are now - well you shake your head but I was going to say, against the agreement and I include not just of course Ian Paisley's DUP, but also those of your own MPs who are opposed to the agreement. TRIMBLE: Well, first of all the votes, the votes are absolutely quite clear on this, the Ulster Unionist Party fought on a manifesto very clearly trying to achieve progress and achieve the full implementation of the agreement. That manifesto was endorsed by more votes than the DUP. So you can't draw any judgement with regard to Unionist voters from that. Some of my colleagues have reservations about the agreement. I mean I quite clearly, it's quite obvious that the implementation of the agreement has not been perfect, indeed, I think this is a time for the government, the British government in particular, and to some extent the Irish government too, to pause and reflect that the way they have handled the implementation of some aspects of the agreement has caused serious problems for the centre parties and we've had a disappointing result, John Hume's SDLP have had a disastrous result, it's the extremes that have grown. I think Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern should sit down and think very carefully why have their actions resulted in a strengthening of the extremes and a weakening of the centre. That reverses what everybody would regard as the proper priorities in building a new democratic future here in Northern Ireland. HUMPHRYS: The government, the British government wants to have another meeting, another get together to talk about the agreement. Is there any point in that? - your position is perfectly clear. Can you see any point, you say nothing now unless and until we have proper decommissioning. TRIMBLE: It's time for people to do things, there is really not very much to talk about, no doubt there will be a flurry of political activity but we don't build those up as being talks or negotiations. There was a promise made, there's an obligation in the agreement to decommission, there was a promise made by the IRA, thirteen months ago not yet fulfilled, no wonder there are difficulties on that point. There was an intention to in the agreement to have an administration where those in the administration supported those who had to enforce the laws, namely the police, we've had the administration in existence for over a year, it's still..Nationalists are dithering and indeed trying to turn what their obligation into a negotiation. Now I think that is quite wrong and indeed actually, the evidence on the ground is that the Catholic community is way ahead of their leaders on this and that they are buying into the new policing arrangements and want to see the police made effective. It's time for Nationalists to stop dragging their feet and let us get those issues dealt with. HUMPHRYS: So you wouldn't be interested in going along to any talks unless it was purely to talk..or negotiations, whatever you want to call them, unless it was purely to talk about decommissioning, that's the only thing you are now prepared to talk about. TRIMBLE: That's all that is actually going to be talked about. In fact if there are meetings, if there is this political activity, it is going to be about getting the agreement fully implemented, it's the failure to implement the agreement fully that has caused the difficulties and it is the way in which the government has seemed to have as it's first priority, that of appeasing the extremes and, as it were, feeding more concessions to the extremes. That has caused the difficulty I think, as I say Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern should sit down and reflect how their stewardship of this process has run it into a crisis. HUMPHRYS: Your - as you said earlier in this interview, your resignation as First Minister is on the table, you've logged it with the Speaker, has anything happened in the last few weeks to change your attitude to that because we have seen the arms..some arms dumps being re-inspected, there has been some movement hasn't there. TRIMBLE: There hasn't been any movement on the issue of the implementation of the IRA's promise to put their weapons beyond use. It is that that I drew a line under with regard, I mean having waited thirteen months for the IRA to keep its word, I think it's not reasonable to expect us to wait any longer and the deadline incidentally wasn't mine but it was set by the government itself and indeed the letter is a message to the government, that don't try to fudge it this time because we are not in the business, we're not in the market for fudge. HUMPHRYS: The trouble is, we are not clear are we quite, at least I'm not clear, perhaps I'm alone in this, in what you mean when you say, put them beyond use. If, after all, John de Chastelain and his inspectors go along and they say, look these dumps have not been touched, they are sealed off, they are absolutely pristine, then is that not putting weapons beyond use? TRIMBLE: Well I think you've got to look at the structure that exists there, John de Chastelain isn't involved in the inspection of dumps himself... HUMPHRYS: ...not him personally, no, no, but... TRIMBLE: ...no that's a separate process. Furthermore, de Chastelain operates under legislation which defines decommissioning as making weapons permanently unusable, permanently unavailable and we have all assumed that when the IRA says put beyond use, they mean something that is permanently unusable and permanently unavailable. The precise way in which that is done is not for me. I'm quite happy to leave that to John de Chastelain, provided we get something that comes within his statutory remit. HUMPHRYS: But you seem to be clear, correct me if I'm wrong, that you want, you require in order to withdraw your resignation, the letter, you require more than another inspection or two or three more inspections? TRIMBLE: Oh yes. Oh yes. I mean the inspection process is quite separate from the decommissioning process, that's always been the case and it's natural I suppose for people to say, run them two together in their minds, but they are in fact quite separate and while the inspections are welcome when they began, now they're not actually something that are regarded as being particularly significant. HUMPHRYS: So the dumps would either have to be sealed off, or the weapons within them destroyed or some such. TRIMBLE: Made permanently unusable, permanently unavailable, but there are a variety of ways in which that can be done. I am not concerned as to the methodology provided we get the result. HUMPHRYS: So unless that begins, just to be quite clear about this, unless some weapons, I take it you don't mean all by that particular date, correct me again if I'm wrong, but unless some weapons are actually destroyed, put permanently beyond use, your resignation stands? TRIMBLE: Unless they are made permanently unusable, permanently unavailable, unless we see that happening, I do not see any way, I think I must say, and I must underline on this too, I think people haven't fully appreciated the fact that the legislation to provide for decommissioning expires next February, so we're actually in a situation now where it's absolutely imperative that we see that process clearly beginning now, because if we have another fudge then in a few months time we'll be left in a situation where it's simply impossible for any decommissioning to occur and then that would be, that would put Northern Ireland back into a situation where it is controlled and dominated by paramilitaries, that would be a situation where we are likely to see conflict re-ignited. It's absolutely crucial that the issue is sorted out now. That is why I adopted this measure, to make it clear to government that they have to do it, no more wishful thinking, let's actually get it sorted, that's the important thing. HUMPHRYS: Can the peace process survive without you? TRIMBLE: The peace process cannot survive unless the Agreement is fully implemented and that involves the issues we have been talking about. It's getting the Agreement fully implemented. And of course if the agreement isn't fully implemented then the peace process has not succeeded and that is the crucial difficulty that we've been in in the course of this General Election campaign. HUMPHRYS: If you go there will be a more hard line person presumably taking your place, it's dead then, isn't it? TRIMBLE: No, let's not tie these things on personalities. It's the interests of the people that's the predominant issue here. HUMPHRYS: David Trimble, thanks very much indeed. TRIMBLE: Thank you. HUMPHRYS: And that's it for this week. If you are on the Internet, don't forget about our website. Until the same time next Sunday, good afternoon. 8 FoLdEd
NB. This transcript was typed from a transcription unit recording and not copied from an original script. Because of the possibility of mis-hearing and the difficulty, in some cases, of identifying individual speakers, the BBC cannot vouch for its accuracy.