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ON THE RECORD
JOHN EDMONDS INTERVIEW
RECORDED FROM TRANSMISSION BBC-1 DATE: 15.3.98
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JOHN HUMPHRYS: John Edmonds is the leader of the GMB
Union and the current President of the TUC and he's with me.
Good afternoon.
JOHN EDMONDS: Hello John.
HUMPHRYS: A bit odd that Trade Unions and Labour
MPs have to lobby a Labour Government to protect the Welfare State, if that's
what you are doing?
EDMONDS: Well as a matter of fact the lobby
tomorrow, as far as I'm concerned, is very much to protect full employment.
That's the centre of the argument. I mean the thing that-
HUMPHRYS: That's odd too.
EDMONDS: Well it's a bit odd yes. But Gordon has
got to - in the Budget on Tuesday - he's just got to get the value of the Pound
down. I go round lots of workplaces and the thing that manufacturing industry
is scared stiff about is this continuing high value of the Pound. And unless
something is done about it, by the end of this year we're going to see some
very, very, serious redundancies, indeed. We're already seeing the postponement
of investment; Exports are going down; this is a real threat and it's a real
threat to Union members.
HUMPHRYS: Well the way to get the value of the
Pound down is to put Interest Rates down.
EDMONDS: Indeed. Yes.
HUMPHRYS: How does he do that?
EDMONDS: Well there is only one way now. I mean
he can't act directly on Interest Rates and I mean we're in the strange
situation where the Monetary Committee of the Bank of England is deadlocked and
we're relying on Eddie George, the Governor, to protect manufacturing industry
by saying that Interest Rates won't go up any further. Now, that's a rather
strange position, isn't it? I mean-
.
HUMPHRYS: Which is what he did last time, because
there was-
EDMONDS: I hope that's what he keeps doing and I
hope some of the people who want to put Interest Rates up further will change
their minds but the-Frankly, the only way he can do it: he can convince that
Monetary Committee that Interest Rates should come down - because that's what
needs to happen - is to ensure that this is not just a prudent Budget but in
Tax terms it's quite tight. There's going to have to be some Tax increase in
order to convince that Monetary Committee - I mean, many of us wouldn't have
started from here but this is where we are - you've got to get those Interest
Rates down and the Pound has got to come down, otherwise redundancy is around
the corner.
HUMPHRYS: But he's already said he won't put taxes
up. He can't for two - I mean, he'd be breaking his promise wouldn't he?
EDMONDS: Well he won't put the Standard Rate up
and of course he's in this-
HUMPHRYS: He also says he won't put the top rate
up.
EDMONDS: He says he won't put the top rate up and
I think that's something-I think that's a restriction which was a restriction
too far and I'm not sure that Gordon Brown himself was very keen on it. But of
course-
HUMPHRYS: Did he tell you that?
EDMONDS: I think there's a word round the Labour
movement which Gordon is keen not to deny, that this wasn't exactly his
decision. But anyway-
HUMPHRYS: Whose was it then?
EDMONDS: Well, it-it sounded as if it was coming
more from Ten Downing Street, or the-Tony Blair, than it did from- his
advisors, rather than from Gordon Brown. But the big-the big problem is that in
order to put taxes up now, he has to come up with some fairly strange ideas.
And if he can't change the Upper Rate and that's the sensible thing to do - I
mean people over a hundred thousand a year, people over fifty thousand a year
can afford to pay more. There's been a tremendous gap widening between the rich
and the poor. People on over a hundred thousand a year can certainly afford to
pay more and that would have been a very sensible way of giving a message that
Interest Rates can come down. And of course the value of the Pound should come
down in quick succession after that.
HUMPHRYS: You wouldn't raise a lot of money if you
did what you're talking about - putting the top rate up a bit - would you?
EDMONDS: Well I think we're talking about
something between three and five billion. If we're talking about a hundred
thousand, we're talking about fifty or sixty per cent?
HUMPHRYS: How would you push it then?
EDMONDS: Well, my own feelings? I would about
fifty thousand. That's about a thousand pounds a week. People on a thousand
pounds a week are not exactly stretched for the money to pay a new pair of
socks or a new pair of stockings. So, I think over fifty thousand I would like
to see fifty per cent, over a hundred thousand sixty per cent. And I think
the vast majority of the British people would accept that. That would give a
very strong message to the Monetary Committee of the Bank of England and maybe
Interest Rates can then come down, which helps not only manufacturing industry
but an awful lot of young people on mortgages who, I don't think, are very keen
on the level of mortgage at the moment.
HUMPHRYS: I can almost hear, as you say that, I
can hear some of the young Turks, in what we have to call now, New Labour,
saying: ach, there he goes again. You know, it's the old Trade Union cry and
the sooner we get shot of all that stuff, the better.
EDMONDS: Yeah. But isn't it a better solution?
I mean what's the alternative? If we're going to have a tight fiscal position,
if taxes are going to go up - and that looks as if the position that we are
going to find ourselves in - if you don't put the upper rate up, then you are
going to be searching around for all sorts of strange taxes. Like, sort of,
taxes on car parks and so on, which probably cost more to administer than
actually raised in Revenue. So, if you deny yourself the opportunity of doing
what I regard as the sensible things, the straightforward things - and for that
matter the popular things - you end up with-running around trying to find some
rather strange tax increases.
HUMPHRYS: They're not going to listen to you
though are they?
EDMONDS: Well, I'm-Not perhaps this year, but I
think long term there is a tremendous popular feeling behind this.
HUMPHRYS: What if they don't?
EDMONDS: What if they don't-?
HUMPHRYS: Listen to you.
EDMONDS: Well, we keep arguing for the cause,
don't we? We keep arguing for the changes. The one thing that has to be
listened to, I think, is this question of the value of the Pound. If the
Chancellor can't bring the value of the Pound down, we are in some considerable
trouble. We saw in the early Eighties how we lost a lot of manufacturing
industry because the Pound was too high. We saw the same thing at the beginning
of the Nineties. And when that manufacturing industry goes, when it's closed
down it hasn't come back again.
HUMPHRYS Gordon Brown would probably say: aren't
you rather missing the point of my Budget? Indeed, everything I've been doing
- and he would say that the kernel of it all, the really important thing he's
doing is Welfare to Work? Aren't you impressed with that?
EDMONDS: Well, I am impressed by it but it-There
is a difficulty here, isn't there? I'm very, very keen on the scheme Welfare
to Work - the new deal - giving young people the opportunity to work. That's a
smashing idea and it's got tremendous support throughout the Trades Union
movement. But, of course, wouldn't it be a bit sad if, at the same time, we're
putting young people into work, giving them greater opportunities, at that same
time, bits of manufacturing industry are closing down and we're finding
redundancies there. So, the two go together. We have to have Welfare to Work
and a lower value Pound. And, if that Pound stays at three Deutschmarks to the
Pound, then, we all know what's going to happen. So, that change has to be
made. That means higher taxes and the only point I'm making is the best place
to raise taxes is on high earners.
HUMPHRYS: Looking at the broader welfare picture,
it seems to be the Government's position that we can't afford the Welfare State
we have now and it has to be reformed for that reason - do you agree with that?
EDMONDS: No, I don't. There's a very nice piece
of work that's been done by the TUC, the evidence to the Chancellor which
demonstrates that on current spending and on reasonable predictions for the
growth rates of the British economy - not wild rates but the sort of historical
rates, we have no problems, whatsoever in funding the Welfare State. And, of
course, the irony is that we don't need to worry about that problem because the
Tory cuts have cut so deep into the Welfare State that some of the people who
could have expected in the past to be supported are not being supported any
longer. So, if reform of the Welfare State is on the agenda - and, it must be
- we must be getting more people to-more money into the pockets and purses of
people who are very low paid or have no work at all.
HUMPHRYS: And, the way that they will do that it
seems again - because we're not quite sure, are we? - unless you know what
they're going to do? I, certainly don't - is more targetting. Fewer universal
benefits - we're seeing this morning- one of the leaks in one of the papers
this morning says that Child Benefit is going to be taxed. Do you think all of
that sort of thing is sensible?
EDMONDS: I think that once you start thinking
about taxing Child Benefit, you get into some very difficult problems, indeed,
because we all know that taxing Child Benefit will, probably, mean - unless you
are very careful and do some very strange things - taking money away from women
and giving it to men because that's the direction that these processes seem to
go for. And, the normal view is that you need to pay a high level of Child
Benefit because if it gets to the women of this country, who have the
responsibility in an unequal society for supporting dependents, for bringing up
children, then, it's most likely spent on the children.
So, if you start doing things that move
the money from women to men, then, you have some very, very unfortunate
results.
HUMPHRYS: But, if many of the women who are
getting it are using it as pocket money, or saving it up to buy - I don't know
- a new coat or something for themselves in a year's time, or whatever they're
doing with it - and some people don't need it - how do you justify that?
EDMONDS: Well, you don't justify it. But, some
of these anectdotal-little bits of anectdote I don't take very seriously at
all. The best way to ensure that very rich people do not have runaway
opportunities to spend money, while poor people have next to none, is to do
something about the top rate of Tax. So, we're back to that issue. And,
that's the point I'm making. If you deny yourself, as the Chancellor has, the
opportunity to do something about the top rate of Tax, you end up trying to tax
other benefits which have very unfortunate effects.
HUMPHRYS: So, when you deliver this message - and,
I assume you do deliver the message, I-
EDMONDS: It has been delivered - yes.
HUMPHRYS: It has been delivered.
EDMONDS: Yes, Gordon-Gordon Brown has been very,
very good at providing access to Trade Unionists, to business people -
everybody throughout society. I mean, there has been a much more open process,
with the green budget this time - and, we've got to applaude that. So, the
opportunities have been made. We've-we've done the lobbying-
HUMPHRYS: And..-
EDMONDS: And, we'll see on Tuesday whether it has
any effect.
HUMPHRYS: Well, I was going to say: what-We'll see
on Tuesday - certainly - but what's the response that you get from them? I
mean, do they say: well, thanks a lot for that, John - very helpful - and we'll
take it onboard or do they give you a nod and a wink? Or, do they just
indicate that well: he would say that, wouldn't he?
EDMONDS: Well, in the run-up to the Budget, of
course, the Chancellor has - and all Chancellors do this - they say: we're
listening, we're in listening mode. We'll listen very carefully and
so on. But, the main argument that we've been putting to him in the last two
meetings has been this high value Pound. I'm sorry to keep coming back to it
but it is such a-It's like this great block of concrete, hanging there, in the
air, over so much of British manufacturing industry and unless that Pound goes
down - and, we can't just rely on Eddie George - I mean, unless that Pound
value goes down, we're just seeing the beginning of a recession.
Manufacturing industry is already in
trouble. It was really in recession in the last quarter of last year. It's
going down further. High value Pound through the summer - very damaging,
indeed.
HUMPHRYS: So, unless, he puts the top rate of tax
on Tuesday, in your view, this will be a failed Budget?
EDMONDS: Unless he puts a package of Tax measures
together, I'm afraid he's not going to bring the value of the Pound down and
we're all going to be in trouble. And, the best option is to put the top rate
up.
HUMPHRYS: John Edmonds, thank you very much,
indeed.
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