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ON THE RECORD
RECORDED FROM TRANSMISSION: BBC-1 DATE: 27.11.94
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JOHN HUMPHRYS: Mr. Major has his back to the wall -
again. If he survives tomorrow's vote in the House, there are still other
crises lying in wait for him including, perhaps, a challenge to his leadership
this week.
NEWS
HUMPHRYS: Hello again, well sometime after ten
tomorrow night John Major will rise to his feet in the House of Commons and
announce that he is going to ask the Queen to dissolve parliament. Assuming,
that is, that he loses the vote on the European Finance bill. But he probably
won't. So he can settle down to another two years in office while the economy
grows even stronger and Labour's lead in the opinion poll grows weaker. Well,
maybe, but some say that's just as unlikely. There is another scenario. Mr
Major's authority has been so damaged by all this - and there are still so many
problems ahead - that he won't be able to cling on to power. Indeed, there may
be a leadership challenge within the next few days.
That is the scenario we shall be
considering in this programme. We'll be talking to Conservative backbenchers
of very different persuasions. We'll be talking to real voters. They'd like
to vote Tory but many regret they can no longer.
UNNAMED MAN: Once the trust is gone, you can't trust
them again. And the trust has gone I think, for a lot of people. And I wouldn't
trust them again.
HUMPHRYS: But first, the humble Conservative
backbenchers. Well, not so humble these days because a very small number have
it in their power to sabotage the Government's legislation. Edwina Currie is
passionately in favour of closer ties with Europe. Richard Shepherd is about
as sceptical as you can get. Phil Gallie is lukewarm but he is passionate
about VAT on fuel. Richard Shepherd, first. This 'Leadership challenge' - I
put it in quotes - what is happening out there in the corridors?
RICHARD SHEPHERD MP: Well, I only read about in the Press.
So, I can't help you on that score. For my own point, I don't think it's
particularly helpful at this juncture and I actually think it's inappropriate.
HUMPHRYS: You say you only read about in in the
Press, but you do know that people are scurrying about trying to do things?
SHEPHERD: In truth, in Parliament, people are
always scurrying around trying to do things. And there's a whole raft of
reasons - animus can be one of them and dissatisfaction against....
HUMPHRYS: Animus against the Prime Minister?
SHEPHERD: ....against individuals, indeed, can be
one of them. Judgments on confidence and a long-longer term judgment as to
how we are to restore our fortunes with the Electorate at large. So, those are
all factors that operate at any given moment, when we're so low in the esteem
of the public.
HUMPHRYS: Has anybody approached you and said: if
we can get the names together, will you sign a Round Robin?
SHEPHERD: I have been approached - that is true -
but I have also said No - that is also true.
HUMPHRYS: Have you? You've been absolutely firm
about that?
SHEPHERD: Yes.
HUMPHRYS: And, you mightn't change your mind, in
any circumstances?
SHEPHERD: Well, if you're talking about the next
few days, no is the answer to that. I won't change my mind, on that matter.
But a Party is not immutable and it doesn't last forever, nor any leaderships
and I don't see, actually, what it accomplishes, at this stage, without.... My
own view on this is that unless you have a clear idea as to who the challenger
should be and believe that they will bring about better responses, in terms of
the Electorate and the management of the Party, then, you proceed. If you
don't have that, then, what is the point of proceeding, other than a sort of
state of anarchy.
HUMPHRYS: Which sounds a bit like saying: you
won't vote for a Leadership challenge because there's nobody there you'd
prefer, at this stage, to John Major.
SHEPHERD: I think, that's the normal
Constitutional position within the Parliament, isn't it?
HUMPHRYS: No, no, there's another one, isn't
there? And that is that you so totally support John Major that you cannot see
any circumstance in which you can support anybody else. I mean, you could say
that.
SHEPHERD: John Major is the Leader of my Party and
I think if we use the words of RAB Butler: "he's the best Prime Minister we've
got"
HUMPHRYS: Alright. Edwina Currie, anybody
approached you and said: will you join us in this quest of ours?
EDWINA CURRIE MP: I think I'd bite their ears off if they
tried. So, they haven't bothered. But I was just thinking - listening to
Richard - how nice it would be if this programme was asking questions about how
the United Kingdom was going to increase its influence in Europe, how we were
going, as new countries join the European Union, to make sure that we were
pulling out weight, paying our way, calling the tune, instead of the kind of
rather idle speculation we're going in for, at the moment.
And, I do feel.
HUMPHRYS: It may not be idle! It may not be idle.
CURRIE: Well, I do think that if we had an
altogether more positive approach, to the position that we find ourselves in
twenty-two years after we joined the European Union, and if we were determined
that we were going to increase our influence in Europe and make our voice very
much heard in Brussels.
SHEPHERD: This is not Europe.
CURRIE: Well, then, I have a feeling.
HUMPHRYS: Alright.
CURRIE: Then, I have a feeling we would all-we
would all be looking to the future. Everybody in our Party and perhaps a lot
more people in the country, with a great deal more optimism.
HUMPHRYS: Let's come back to that area, in a
moment. But, let's ask Phil Gallie, up in Scotland and I'm not sure that I'm
going to be able to hear you, Mr Galie. I hope so! But, let me ask you
whether you've been approached.
PHIL GALIE MP No I've not been approached by anyone
in this issue. I have had discussions, I was billed earlier as having
concerns on VAT, certainly had approaches from my Whips and from the Chancellor
about my attitudes but no undue pressures. On the European issue, I think,
it's up to Members to make their minds up. But quite honestly, I don't think
there's anyone in the country who'll make a better Prime Minister for the
country than John Major. And when we're looking at the European issues I
think he has fought Britain's corner in Europe and I think he's done it
positively. And he's taken note of the concerns of many people in this
country over the direction that some would like Europe to go in.
HUMPHRYS: Alright.
GALIE: ...particularly, those of the French
and the Germans.
HUMPHRYS: Alright, just one more question then
about the leadership, does any of you think there's any remote possibility that
they'll get the thirty-four signatures that they need on that letter that they
have to send off to Sir Marcus Fox by Thursday. Do you think so Phil Galie?
GALIE: No, absolutely no. I think that what we
will have is a short debate in the House of Commons. There will be comments
made about the unfortunate circumstances in Europe and the waste of money and
the fraud that's been going on and I think that all of those who have concerns
will recognise their fortunes lie best with Conservative handling of
negotiations in Europe, at the present time and in the future.
HUMPHRYS: Obviously, you Edwina Currie don't think
they're going to get the thirty-four votes. You think, that's entirely-
CURRIE: I think that's unlikely.
HUMPHRYS: -unlikely.
CURRIE: And of course we changed the rules to
make it that much harder to have a challenge. A few years ago, it would have
been only two signatories that would have been required.
HUMPHRYS: Now, you've got to have ten per cent?
CURRIE: Now, they've got to have ten per cent.
And, I think, it would be a big mistake to have a Leadership challenge, at this
time. There's a lot happening, there's a lot happening in Northern Ireland,
which requires stability in this country. Nobody in our Party wants a General
Election, for the most obvious of reasons, right now. So, I don't think
there's going to be a challenge at all.
HUMPHRYS: Richard Shepherd, it would clear the air
wouldn't it, and a lot of people are saying: The Mail on Sunday, The Sunday
Telegraph even saying this morning: clear the air, then, you can assert Mr
Major's authority all over again'.
SHEPHERD: You can take that view. You know, I
actually thought I was coming on this programme to talk about Europe
HUMPHRYS: We are. I just wanted to clear this. So,
you don't think you'll get the thirty-four signatures?
SHEPHERD: I do not know whether there are thirty-
four people out there. There is considerable discontent, you can see the state
of the newspapers and in a sense, we react to that. I have no idea whether
they can get thirty-four votes or not.
HUMPHRYS: Alright, Europe. Mr Major's handling of
the European Finance Bill, let's consider that. Do you think his tactics have
been sensible?
SHEPHERD: Well, I think the whole thing is
incomprehensible to most of us in the country. We started two weeks ago with
the Government with a putative majority of five hundred, and we have a suicide
pact and this may be what's fuelling speculation. I understand that, but it
does seem a most extraordinary management of what is a domestic issue, under
the European Community's treaties and in our own domestic law. This is County
Council chairmen, citizens no less of the Union, sitting together, making an
agreement, a deal, and subject of course to the Parliamentary approval. This
is the normal business of the parliament of the United Kingdom, the supply of
small sums of money, additional sums of money because we're talking about
budgets that reach up to ten billion pounds - huge sums in the total quantum of
it.
But, in this particular issue, this
would normally have gone forward with those such as I, who feel very strongly
on this matter. As a matter of principle, there would have been a vote and I
think a very easy victory for the Government, as it happens.
HUMPHRYS: But, it was turned into a confidence
issue.
SHEPHERD: But we've now turned it into an
extraordinary thing that actually does beg the question of Cabinet management
of great issues facing this country. We need a referendum. We needed it after
Maastricht. Otherwise, all I can see is that my Party is going to be stymied
and we say my Party. This is not just an issue for the Conservative Party,
it's a national issue. It confronts the Labour Party, and we need the
attestation of assent. What........ called 'you've got to show
acquiescence or consent'. We've never been able to demonstrate it.
HUMPHRYS: Edwina Currie, the Prime Minister's
handling of the issue, first of all. He's turned it into something pretty big
and...
CURRIE: Well, provided we win it, we'll all
think his handling has been absolutely brilliant.
SHEPHERD: I don't know. It'll leave scars.
HUMPHRYS: Well, no, because he's opened up
divisions again, hasn't he, as Richard Shepherd says.
CURRIE: I think, the worst scenario would be if
we dragged it out for over a year, as we did with the Maastricht Treaty. It
took fourteen months to take that legislation through and it was very, very
damaging. I hope we can get this whole business through by Christmas and
it's important stuff. I mean, my only doubt about it - I'll share with you -
is the crowing about how...what a wonderful deal it is; that, in future, France
and the Netherlands will, in relative terms to their population, be paying in
rather more. That's going to mean that our relative influence was slight.
That's the deal that we've done, to take us back to be that much less important
in Europe and that bothers me. He who pays the piper in Europe, calls the
tune, and I think the United Kingdom should call the tune far more and we're
going to find it much more difficult.
SHEPHERD: I find that incredible and I must say
this is incredible on that basis. We pay fifteen billion in the hope that we
can whistle a little bit more loudly. This is an absurd argument. We're
having trouble over seventy-five million, let alone the proposition that we pay
vast sums in.
HUMPHRYS: Just one more question about those
tactics though. Threatening to withdraw the Whip, threatening the
Constituencies, their associations are going- But, do you think it's right?
CURRIE: It seems to have worked. A government
is elected on a programme and this was included in all the programme that we
did. There is no argument about that.
HUMPHRYS: But, you're not elected to support the
government of the day. I mean, you're elected to represent your Constituency
and to represent your own conscience.
CURRIE: And, in this case, as far as I'm
concerned, they coincide but we're also elected-.
HUMPHRYS: But for many it doesn't.
CURRIE: May I answer your question? We're also
elected in a Party that has long believed in loyalty. Many of the people who
are calling now for people to be disloyal, like Lord Tebbit for example, used
to lay down the law about loyalty to the leadership and loyalty to the Party's
principles before. That's what we were got- that's what we were elected for
and for us to make promises under our leadership. Indeed, in Edinburgh, two
years ago and then not be able to put them into operation, is a matter of
confidence. I think the Prime Minister's absolutely right and I'm sure he's
going to get his majority.
HUMPHRYS: Phil Galie, a thought from you about the
tactics, the way it's been handled, what are you?
GALIE: Well, I think what we've got is a Prime
Minister who's establishing his leadership qualities. He went to Edinburgh, he
led the negotiations, he achieved much at those talks. And as far as I'm
concerned, he pledged the country to a commitment that I'm quite prepared to
sign on to. I think it's important to recognise that what we've been calling
for many years in this country is strong leadership. That's what John Major is
going along with at the present time; that's what he's demonstrating. And, I'd
have to say..could I just say?
HUMPHRYS: Yes.
GALIE: That I find Edwina's comment about
Britain paying more into Europe to exert more influence. That's quite
astonishing and perhaps that shows why it's so important to have a balanced
view within the Party. Those who feel strongly against European federalisation
and those like Edwina, who seem to be hell bent on giving more and more to
European govenment rather than maintaining a national base. I think, the
mainstream of the Party is bang on line and it's bang on line with the Prime
Minister.
HUMPHRYS: Richard Shepherd. What's going to
happen tomorrow, in reality is the vote's going to go through, Mr Major will
have exerted his authority and will have shown that you, Euro sceptics, are a
small group of people, who actually can't do very much when push comes to
shove?
SHEPHERD: You know you're talking about the
management of a Party as well as a Prime Minister, and clever leadership - and
this I hold against the Cabinet - it started with the Rubric. There was
expected to be a five hundred majority for this, within two weeks you get to a
suicide pact. How can you career through like that? Now, I've always believed
profoundly that I represent the interests of Alridge-Brownhills.
HUMPHRYS: But you've done your best, haven't you
and you've lost?
SHEPHERD: Let me finish. Lost in the sense of
what? 'Have we got a Parliamentary democracy?' are questions that shouldn't
come up under a Conservative government. I'm elected for Alridge Brownhills
surely, on the floor of the House of Commons, I must express views that I hold
deeply or that I hold on behalf of my Constituents. So we've introduced a
whole series and raft of other issues into the management of this vote that
were wholly unnecessary. That I think has been deeply damaging to the Cabinet.
HUMPHRYS: Edwina Currie, quick thought on that.
CURRIE: None of what I do or I think is
incredible. In my area, in much of this country, if we were not part of
European union, we wouldn't had the inward investment. If we were not part of
the European union, we wouldn't have the open market and the
access...(interruption)...
SHEPHERD: I thought we were talking about the
techniques....
HUMPHRYS: Go on, let her finish but if you would
make it brief because you are as he says making the case for Europe and that
could go on for three hours and we haven't got three hours.
CURRIE: I'm making a point. There is no
conflict between believing what's right for your patch, for your constituency,
believing what is right for Europe and believing that all is, all of those is
also right for this country. We have no future unless we're in Europe and we
have got to get this legislation through.
HUMPHRYS: Alright. Let me now turn now to another
area where there are potential problems ahead, real problems ahead. Phil
Galie, VAT on domestic fuel, the next tranche of that. Are you going to vote
against it?
GALIE: No, I won't go into lobbies with the
Labour Party and the Liberals. That would be hypocritical. They're the
Parties of high taxation, they're the Parties who want to put on fuel tax.
It's wrong for me to join them in the lobbies. What I won't do is support the
Government in this issue. I intermitted to Mr Lamont back in March 1993, that
I felt it was a bad idea to put VAT on fuel. I did accept, given the economic
circumstances at that time, it was possible that we should go ahead with the
eight per cent tranche but I intimated then, that I felt when the economy
improved we should step back from the seventeen and a half per cent. I think,
the Government's had remarkable success in their handling of the economy since
that time. I think, now's the time to demonstrate that we shouldn't be going
ahead with the seventeen and a half per cent and I will not be supporting the
Government on that basis.
HUMPHRYS: So even if it becomes a confidence
issue, which for different sorts of reasons to the Europe Bill, it very well
might?
GALIE: I will not support the Government on
increasing VAT to seventeen and a half per cent. On a vote of confidence, of
course, I would support the Government because anyone else handling their
economic affairs of the United Kingdom would be a disaster for my constituents,
a disaster for Scotland and a disaster for the United Kingdom as a whole.
HUMPHRYS: What would you do, Richard Shepherd?
SHEPHERD: Oh, I've always said that this
regressive taxation is not a Conservative policy and I can't support seventeen
and a half per cent.
HUMPHRYS: Whether it's a matter of confidence or
not?
SHEPHERD: Oh, look, this is the danger that we're
entering into, that everything becomes a matter of confidence. It makes the
Conservative Party unelectable. If I give undertakings to my constituents,
through an election address - which I have done - through my arguments on the
floor at the House of Commons and to them and then I say: oh, it doesn't matter
what I thought and I protested to you. Smiths Square, the Conservative Central
Office, or Number Eleven Downing Street is determining that my views and your
views are of no consequence and that the whole purpose of Parliamentary
democracy is merely to ensure that the Government always gets its way. That
defies almost every convention of our constitution that you've ever heard of
growing up.
HUMPHRYS: Edwina Currie.
CURRIE: I think we need the money. The country
certainly wants to spend the money. The country has now, for several years,
been spending more money than it's got coming in in revenue and if we want
things like, you know, wonderful Health Service, and new roads, and all the
rest of things that my Constituents turn up to my advice bureau week after week
and demand from me. Then, I would return to them what an old miner said to me
once: you can have whatever you want in life, as long as you are prepared to
pay for it. What we should not be doing is demanding these extra spendings and
we do all demand them. We all demand them. You do in Alridge-Brownhills as
well, and then say: but we don't actually want to rise the tax to pay for it.
SHEPHERD: It's a cut in revenue I was looking for.
HUMPHRYS: There we must end it. Edwina Currie,
Richard Shepherd and Phil Galie, thank you all very much.
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