Bill Bush

The BBC's Head of Research Bill Bush delivers his verdict on the Uxbridge result

With an increase in their share of the vote of 7.6% the Conservatives returned to the 50% plus territory that they have enjoyed in Uxbridge for years. Labour slipped by 2.5%, not disastrous but well below their expectations. The Liberal Democrats fell to just 5.6% and only just saved their deposit.

It's quite wrong to draw sweeping conclusions from one small by-election and the Tories will be well aware that it is far too soon to be triumphalist. After all Labour enjoyed a 5% swing from the Tories in the first by-election in the 1979 Parliament but still went on to self-destruction in the run-up to the 1983 election. Still, the inquests are underway and some lessons will be learned.

It could be that, with a huge Commons majority and no great national issues pressing to be resolved, by-elections may well be settled by local factors far more often than in the last few years. The Tories fought hard on the theme of "Randall of Uxbridge" to exploit their candidate's local links and to highlight the dumping of Labour's local man in favour of a Hammersmith lawyer.

Labour will think twice now about how they handle their selections. In opposition they had got used to the ease with which they won by-elections. In part they put this down to the way in which they controlled selection, but actually many of their successful candidates were no better than Andrew Slaughter in Uxbridge. In Government their candidates will endure far more scrutiny and local spats like the dumping of David Williams will be far riskier.

Nor was this completely unexpected and purely local. Local council by-elections have shown a steady Tory improvement in the last 10 weeks. The Tories have gained over 10 seats and their vote share has edged up to 33% while Labouršs appears to have fallen to 40%.