Attitudes towards Welsh Devolution

How will you vote in the Referendum, Yes or No ?

Yes		37%
No		29%
Don't know		34%

Those who said that they did not know which way they would vote were asked do you think you are more likely to vote Yes or No ?

Yes		20%
No		18%
Don't know		63%

NOP for HTV Broadcast: 15 September 1997 Fieldwork: 12-14 September 1997

Polls carried out by different companies are not directly comparable. The poll on Welsh devolution prior to that had put support for a Welsh Assembly ahead by only one per cent. The poll found that those who opposed the establishment of an Assembly were more likely to vote in the referendum than those who supported it. According to these findings a low turnout would be likely to produce a 'No' vote on September 18th.

Do you support or oppose the setting up of a Welsh Assembly ?

Support		37%
Oppose		36%
Don't know		27%

ICM/Guardian
Published: 10 September 1997
Fieldwork: 4 - 8 September 1997
Respondents: 502 interviewed by telephone throughout Wales

Polls carried out by Beaufort research ask a slightly different question and use different polling methods again. These polls ask "Do you agree that there should be a Welsh Assembly as proposed by the Government ?" They have found a slight drop in the number of people planning to vote against the Assembly over the past few months.

		August		June
Yes		42%		39%
No		22%		27%
Don't know		36%		34%

Beaufort Research/Western Mail poll published 30 August 1997

Question "Do you agree that there should be a Welsh Assembly as proposed by the Government ?"

The 'Don't knows' were then asked, "What is your most likely vote ?"

		Yes		No		Don't know
Initially		39%		27%		34%
Projection after 'squeezing "Don't knows"'		43%		29%		28%
Age breakdown after 'squeezing "Don't knows"'
15-34		48%		24%		28%
35-54		43%		29%		29%
55+		39%		35%		26%

Beaufort Research/Western Mail
Published: 2 July 1997
Fieldwork: 5 - 7 June 1997
Respondents: 1,003 at 60 points in Wales