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And the winner is...?
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Welsh Devolution
Briefing by Vaughan Roderick, Welsh Affairs Editor, BBC Wales
Part 6. What if?
Post-referendum scenarios
If the vote is "Yes" the government will proceed to present the main devolution act ...a new "Wales Bill" to Parliament. How easy its passage would prove would depend on how clear the referendum mandate was but there is no doubt that it would reach the statute book.
The first elections for the Assembly would probably take place in May 1999. Despite their opposition to the proposals, the Conservatives have indicated that they would seek election to it. The Conservatives have also indicated that a future Conservative government at Westminster would be unlikely to abolish the Assembly "for some time to come".
If the vote is "No", the government's proposals would be dead in the water, although some of the measures concernig the merging and abolition of Qangos might be introduced. But given that the result is certain to be closer than in 1979 and that the Scottish plans seem likely to go ahead, the issue might well be revisited sooner rather than later.
The "nightmare scenario" for Wales would be a narrow "No" vote which would allow extremists to claim that the result had been tipped by English people living in Wales. The 1979 referendum was followed by the long-running arson campaign against English-owned property. While Wales willl never be "another Northern Ireland" a return of the sort of social tensions that existed in rural Wales in the early eighties can't be ruled out.
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