The first will abolish the assisted places scheme and reduce class sizes. This bill is likely to be introduced before the summer recess, in order for it to achieve royal assent by the autumn.

The second bill is likely to be longer and will cover a wide range of issues. An Education White Paper is likely to be published in early June, with a bill published in November.

Assisted Places Scheme

Since 1981 an estimated 80,000 children have participated in the scheme, costing a total of just over £800 million. In 1981 4,185 pupils gain assisted places. There are currently some 34,000 pupils and 355 schools in the scheme.

On some indicators the assisted places has been successful. Over 42% of pupils who gain places under the assisted places scheme come from families with annual incomes below £10,000. Pass rates at GCSE are marginally higher among assisted pupils than non-assisted pupils in independent and state schools.

The abolition of the assisted places scheme has been welcomed by most education groups - with the exception of those campaigning on behalf of independent schools - and has not been opposed by poverty lobby groups.

Class Sizes

Class sizes have steadily increased in recent years, due to education cuts and teacher shortage, as well as an increase in the number of pupils.

Despite the increases in class sizes, most pupils are already in classes of 30 or less pupils with one or more teacher. However, large classes are more common in primary schools.

Pressure on pupils to perform better

The cost of reducing class sizes will be dependent on local circumstances: the size of the problem, the ease with which admissions could be transferred to other schools and the need for additional teachers.

The Institute of Public Finance has estimated that if all infant classes with more than 30 pupils were abolished it would cost £65m annually, plus a capital outlay of £100m. The National Federation of Educational Research has estimated that cutting class sizes to 30 or under for five, six and seven year olds would cost £68 million.

Failing Schools

The second Education Bill focuses on improving school standards, partly by tackling the problem of failing schools.

The Government plans to set annual targets for schools and LEAs, send improvement teams for failing schools and close those that don't meet the new targets.

Although there is widespread acknowledgement that where schools are failing, the way in which schools are evaluated is the key contentious issue.

Nursery Education

The voucher scheme has been heavily criticised for failing to stimulate new provision in the pilot areas, threatening the existing supply of playgroups, nursery schools and private nurseries.

The plan to guarantee places in nurseries for all four year olds is seen as a highly achievable goal. Most four year olds are already in state funded nursery and reception classes, or playgroups.

Far fewer 3 year olds and only 2% of under 3s are in state funded places. The UK has the lowest level of state funded childcare in the European Union and one of the lowest levels of provision for 3-6 year olds.

Literacy And Numeracy

There has been little significant change in levels of basic skills attainments since the 1940s. Action to improve basic skills should be aimed at individuals of all ages.

Initiatives which have been found to be effective include family literacy schemes where parents and children learn literacy and numeracy skills together.

Pupil Achievement

Nevertheless, educational achievement still remains poor in certain areas, such as mathematics, in comparison to other developed countries.

Almost one in five seven year olds and two in five 11 year olds and 14 year olds fail to reach expected national curriculum standards in English. Similar standards have been found for mathematics and science.

Teaching Standards

There will be much interest in the details of the proposals for a GTC. It is unclear what powers will it have or who will be entitled to sit on the Council.

School Structures

There will be much interest in the details of changes to admission policies, which will allow more parental preference. Some organisations are calling for a national admissions policy to ensure that a two-tier structure is not, in effect, maintained.

Education Spending

Savings made through reductions in unemployment will be channelled into education. Total education spending for 1997/98 is predicted to be £38 billion.

The UK spends 5.1% of GDP on education compared to the 5.8% average for developed countries. The 1996 budget increased education spending by £875 million - of which £633 million is expected to come from local authorities. An additional £200 million is planned over 2 years for universities and colleges.

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Devolution: Scotland

The Scottish Labour Party and Scottish Liberal Democrats participated in the Scottish Constitution Convention which produced its final report in November 1995. The Convention's proposals for a devolved Scottish Parliament form the basis of both parties' policies. The Parliament would have powers to vary the level of income tax (3p more or less than the standard national rate) and authority to legislate in a number of policy areas including education, criminal justice and health. The primary matters to be retained by the UK Parliament would be defence, foreign affairs, immigration, social security policy and central economic and fiscal responsibilities.

Two Questions

In the Joint Labour-LibDem Statement of March 1997, the Liberal Democrats indicated that despite their disagreement with Labour's intention to hold a pre-legislative referendum, they "would not seek to frustrate or delay the referendum legislation." Both parties would campaign for a double "yes" vote in the referendum. However, Tony Blair later said that the Labour Party's promise not to raise income tax over the course of this Parliament would also apply to the Scottish Parliament.

The Conservative Party is opposed to devolution on the grounds that "the development of new assemblies in Scotland and Wales would create strains which could well pull apart the Union" and could create rivalry and conflict between these parliaments or assemblies and the parliament at Westminster. It also points to "serious questions" about the level of representation of Scottish and Welsh MPs at Westminster following devolution (the 'West Lothian Question').

However, the Tories' electoral rout north of the border is forcing them to think again about the issue.

The SNP's central policy platform is the creation of an independent Scotland. It did not take part in the Scottish Constitutional Convention. It has argued that any referendum should include a third question offering the option of independence, but Labour has steadfastly resisted this. Recently, the SNP has implied that if no third question was included, it might nevertheless be prepared to campaign for a double yes.

Timing

The major obstacle to an early poll is that referendums need authorising legislation. It seems fairly certain that for the devolution referendums, the legislation will be concerned solely with the referendum. The option of 'generic' legislation authorising a number of referendums has been discussed by Labour frontbenchers, but given the timing constraints is unlikely to gain support from business managers. The other option would be to authorise the referendum in substantive legislation, with its implementation dependent on the outcome of the referendum. But Tony Blair has made clear that he intends the referendum to be pre-legislative.

Because of the time needed to draft legislation, the rules governing intervals between different stages in parliamentary procedure (both in the Commons and the Lords), and the likely opposition to the bill, it seems unlikely that referendum legislation will reach the statute book before August. Even then, it would mean the House of Lords sitting into August, an unprecedented move.

The only alternative is to negotiate a 'fast-track' timetable on the back of the manifesto commitment. Either way, the Government will be using up stocks of parliamentary goodwill early on. The Conservatives have indicated that they would resist attempts to take the bill in a standing committee, rather than on the floor of the House; but Labour has not said that it intends to do so - indeed, it is unlikely to do so, as any new procedures will arise from the recommendations of a new select committee, which are unlikely to be in place before the referendum bill is introduced.

It might be up to nine months after Royal Assent before elections could take place. The first meeting of the Parliament could be held shortly thereafter, with a further three months of running-in operations - settling standing orders, committee structure, dry-running operations with the Scottish Office - before full powers are transferred.

Referendum Rules

Moreover, the outcome of the 1979 vote was controversial because of another rule, adopted against the wish of the Government. There was a majority for devolution: 51.6% for, and 48.4% against. However, during the Parliamentary proceedings on the Scotland Act, a clause had been inserted on the initiative of a Labour backbencher, George Cunningham MP. This provided that, unless 40% of those entitled to vote voted in favour, the Government had to lay an Order before Parliament which, if passed, would repeal the Act. With a turnout of 62.9%, the 'Yes' vote was only 32.9% of the electorate. The Labour Government accordingly tabled an Order repealing the Scotland and Wales Acts (Parliament did not vote on an Order repealing the Act until after the change of Government in May 1979). The outcome of the referendum produced lasting resentment; it was felt that the rules had been biased against advocates of a Scottish Assembly.

The Labour manifesto says that a simple majority of those voting in Scotland will be the requirement, and this is intended to ensure that at least in the House of Lords (whose members by convention do not seek to amend legislative provisions foreshadowed in a party manifesto) no attempt is made to reproduce the threshold clause.

More Complications

The independent Commission on the Conduct of Referendums, which reported in November 1996, recommended that for future referendums there would be advantage in establishing a clear framework of rules in advance. The most effective way of achieving his would be to give responsibility for the conduct of referendums to an independent body. Its functions might include: advising on the wording of the question(s); ensuring adequate provision of public information; liaising with and acting as moderator between any campaign groups; allocating their funds; acting as an ombudsman to deal with any complaints; monitoring fair access to the media; and giving guidance on the organisation at each polling station.

Substantive Legislation

The 1978 Act sought to define with great precision the legislative competences of the devolved Assembly by reference to statutes then in force in Scotland. Many commentators believe that this was a mistake. No allocation of powers is without its grey areas - but the Act failed adequately to acknowledge this. As a result it was impossible to understand without reference to other legislation, would have been difficult to use in practice, and would have required frequent amendment.

The Constitution Unit and others have argued that the Act should instead list only the powers retained at Westminster rather than those devolved. Express provision should be made for Westminster to legislate outside its areas of retained competence in certain circumstances e.g. to comply with international obligations, or when the Scottish Parliament requests Westminster legislation; and for the Scottish Parliament likewise to be able to encroach on Westminster's retained powers when necessary - with their consent.

However tightly the legislation is drawn, disputes about the precise scope of the Scottish Parliament's competence would arise. They might be resolved, or avoided, by a number of means:

• scrutiny of bills in advance of introduction by the Scottish Law Officers and the Speaker of the Parliament
• provision for a direct challenge to Scottish Acts on the grounds that they go beyond the scope of the devolution laws, following Royal Assent but before entry into force
• provision for indirect challenges - where devolution points occur in the course of other cases - to be referred to the final court of appeal for an opinion
• provision for the direct challenge of executive acts of the Scottish Executive at any time.

Taxation powers

The question might be remitted to a Speaker's Conference, perhaps to set political guidelines for subsequent review by a UK Electoral Commission. It might prove impracticable to reach a conclusion with a referendum on change in the Westminster electoral system in prospect. It is clear that the Electoral Commission asked to produce a PR system to put to a referendum will have to consider the implications of devolution. [ Back to party policies. Back to Wales. ] 

Public Support for Devolution

"Over twice as many still say they would vote for a devolved Scottish parliament as say they would vote against. But at 63%, the proportion saying they will vote yes is six points lower than in January. Support for the tax varying power is down by the same amount, and now receives the positive endorsement of only just over a half of Scots."

He also points out that devolution is still not an important issue for many voters. Just one in ten says it is one of the two or three most important issues.

The following week, ICM's poll for the Scotsman suggested that the number of Scottish voters backing the status quo had risen to 31%. This contrasted with 20% support in May 1996. By comparison support for devolution within the United Kingdom was 44% a year ago, rising to a peak of 48% in the middle of March 1997 and in the April 29th poll was down to 39%. Support for independence within the European Union has gone from a high of 33% in May 1996 but has been steady for most of this year, finishing on 27% in the 29 April poll. The forces for change are split between those who support devolution and those who want independence.

Most important of all, however, support for the status quo continues to grow while support for "change" diminishes steadily. Thus, a year ago, only 20% of those asked resisted reform; the figure at the end of April was 31%. In parallel, 77% wanted change in May of last year; at the end of April this year the figure was down to 66%.

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Devolution: Wales

It would be elected by the additional member system (this is a very recent shift in policy). It would have 80 seats, with members elected for a fixed four-year term.

The Liberal Democrats also want to see a devolved assembly (Senedd), but with powers equivalent to those proposed for a Scottish Parliament, including law-making and tax-varying powers. Despite the policy differences between them on this issue, the Liberal Democrats have said they would campaign for a "yes" vote in a Labour-initiated referendum.

Plaid Cymru wants a 'powerhouse parliament' leading eventually to an independent Wales (subject to a referendum five years after the establishment of the parliament). Its version would have law-making powers, and be elected by proportional representation. The party dismisses Labour's devolution proposals as inadequate, and wants to see independence as an option on the referendum paper.

The Conservatives have regarded devolution as a step towards the break-up of the UK, and are likely to form the nucleus of the "no" campaign in the referendum. Although, as with Scotland, their loss of all Welsh seats in the election brings into question this policy.

Proposals for a Welsh Assembly go back 100 years. The last Labour Government legislated for an Assembly in the Wales Act 1978, but it was rejected by four to one in a referendum in 1979.

Previous Proposals

The local government model involves all members in decision-making; but it has been criticised for its cumbersome committee structure, slow decision taking, diffusion of responsibility, and relegation of real policy making to the party caucus. A more effective alternative could be the cabinet model, with an Executive separate from the Assembly. This produces quicker decisions and sharper accountability, but gives less of a role for backbenchers.

Secondary Powers

The question of Welsh representation at Westminster cannot be ignored, even if the Parliament has no law-making powers, particularly since Wales is already theoretically over-represented (40 seats, when its share proportionate to population would be 33). As in Scotland, the only two genuine answers - no representation at all, and 'in and out' (Welsh MPs taking no part in Commons business dealing only with the rest of the UK) - are considered unjust or unworkable. One response may be to offer a review of Scottish and Welsh representation once the devolved Assemblies are established; another would be to consider the matter in the context of any change to the electoral system for the House of Commons.

Quangos and Finance

The creation of a Welsh Assembly would provide the opportunity to review the whole framework and accountability of quangos. They have caused public concern in Wales because of their inadequate accountability; the people appointed to their boards; and lapses in their internal management. But it is only a few high profile executive bodies which have given rise to that concern.

In many areas there may be sound reasons for retaining quangos with a degree of operational independence. The majority are specialist bodies operating in technical fields where the Assembly and its Executive would need independent expertise and advice.

In the long term, devolution may require a change to the whole system of determining public expenditure in Wales. The current system whereby the Treasury determines the Welsh block (the 'Barnett formula') might not survive the greater scrutiny involved in an external transfer mechanism between different administrations. If it does come under pressure, it might need to be replaced with a regular needs assessment exercise conducted by an independent Commission.

See also Scotland for discussion of referendums and timing.

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Crime And Punishment

There are likely to be two main areas of legislation under Labour; one set of policies relating to youth crime and another relating to "anti-social behaviour".

Labour believes that youth offending is a key cause of future adult crime since the peak ages for all offending are between 15 and 19. At the same time, the earlier people start to commit crime the more likely they are to continue to offend.

Fast Track Punishment

Labour links the rise in crime to a general rise in disorder. They argue that crime and disorder both affect quality of life and lead to a spiral of decline of local communities.

It plans to deal with this by introducing new community safety orders placing restrictions on movement and behaviour of named individuals. It will also introduce a new offence of racial harassment.

But many of Labour's policies reflect its emphasis on tackling the causes of crime. They are necessarily long-term and will not aim or expect to have an immediate impact.

Poor Parenting

Parents will be more involved in the process when their children commit offences - with final warnings, interventions. Parental responsibility orders would require parents to attend counselling and guidance sessions.

Labour will evaluate the impact of parenting programmes and give them higher priority. It will ask the Qualifications and National Curriculum Authority to examine how parenting lessons might be incorporated into their new values curriculum..

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Four options will be available for young unemployed people:

• private-sector job: employers will be offered a £60-a-week rebate for six months
• work with a non-profit voluntary sector employer: claimants will receive benefit plus a fixed sum for six months
• full-time study for young people who are unemployed: an abolition of the 16-hour rule which restricts the number of hours you can study when receiving benefits
• a job with the environment taskforce, linked to Labour's Citizens' Service programme: claimants will receive benefit plus a fixed sum for six months

In addition:

• all young people will be offered part-time or full-time education after the age of 16. Those aged 16-18 in a job will have the right to study on an approved course
• the Youth Training scheme will be replaced by Target 2000; By the age of 18 all young people will be expected to have achieved NVQ level 2
• employers will be offered a £75-a-week tax rebate for six months if they take on an employee who has been unemployed for more than two years. This is to be funded by the windfall tax
• a Jet Scheme to help lone parents back to work. Once the youngest child is in the second term of full-time school lone parents will be offered advice by a proactive Employment Service to develop a package of job search, training and after-school care
• new Employment Zones will be created where personal job accounts will combine money currently available for benefits and training to offer claimants options. Benefits, employment and career services will be co-ordinated
• phased release of receipts from council house sales will provide new jobs in the construction industry
• action against fraud will be maintained: targeting initially housing benefit fraud.

The windfall tax on the excess profits of the privatised utilities, which will be used to fund part of the "welfare-to-work" strategy, will be introduced as part of the Budget.

More than two-thirds of 16-year-olds stay on in further education, mostly at FE colleges. Only one in twelvestarts work, and one in ten enters a training scheme. The number of young people staying on in further education has increased steadily since the mid-1970s due to a number of factors: the withdrawal (in 1988) of entitlement to benefit for 16- and 17-year-olds, job shortages and the lack of success of youth training programmes.

But there is still a significant problem of unemployment among young people:

• 718,000 16-24 year olds are unemployed (autumn 1996): 19.6% of those aged 16-19 and 13.2% aged 20-24

• the unemployment rate among young people is higher than any other age group

• over the last year (autumn 1995-autumn 1996) unemployment increased only in the 16-19 age group

• 151,000 people aged 16-24 have been unemployed for one year or more.

• the level of compulsion: will young people have a genuine choice as to whether to take up any one of the four options offered?
• will there be any guarantee of the quality of the jobs or training offered?
• would the full minimum wage cover all those under 25?
• what happens to a young person after six months? If they continue to be unemployed, what sorts of benefits will they be entitled to? Will the Jobseekers' Allowance be retained?
• will employment opportunities be sustained for young people who move into work following training or after a 6-month subsidised work placement? What will the Government do to encourage long-term employment opportunities and job growth?

Under the previous government, attempts to encourage young people leaving school to take up Youth Training (YT) though a Training Guarantee were largely unsuccessful because there were not enough places - mainly because the scheme was underfunded. The training offered under YT has also been criticised; Youthaid found that half of young people on YT left the scheme early, one in three failed to achieve NVQ level 2 and about 40% of leavers became unemployed.

Young people will be guaranteed access to the proposed Target 2000 scheme, in a similar way that young people were offered a Training Guarantee under the previous government. Increased resources will be needed to ensure sufficient places to meet demand. Concern has already been expressed by some campaign organisations that there will be no safety net - those who do not take up training or work will not be entitled to any support.

The level of employment among lone parents is low: 16% of lone parents work full-time and 24% work part-time. Employment rates actually decreased among lone mothers during the 1980s, contrary to trends in employment among other women. The reasons for the low level of employment among lone parents has been attributed to the lack of affordable childcare, the way in which the means-tested benefits system works and the high cost of housing.

The likelihood of lone parents working full-time increases substantially when their children reach school age: 22% of lone parents with children aged 5+ work full time compared to 9% of those with children under 5. Currently lone parents are not required to sign on until their children reach the age of 16. Requiring lone parents to sign-on when their child is of school age could mean loss of benefit unless they are deemed to be actively seeking work. The availability of after-school childcare, help with the costs of seeking work and the offer of training will be crucial.

The integration of benefits, employment and career services could reduce bureaucracy surrounding the claiming of unemployment. The creation of personal job accounts has no precedent - which rasies many questions:

• what kind of options will be offered to claimants?
• who will make decisions about the options that are available? If these are set locally, will there be significant regional differences? Will claimants be able to refuse options without penalty?
• how much money will be available to offer claimants genuine choices? Both Conservative and Labour MPs have recognised that benefit levels are meagre. Means-tested unemployment benefits are widely assumed to be set to the minimum required to live on.

Estimates of the level benefit fraud are, at best, guesses. The DSS estimates £3 billion worth of benefit fraud takes place each year, of which £2 billion is housing benefit fraud. This includes everything from organised group fraud to inadvertent errors made on the part of the claimant or the Benefits Agency.

The level of unclaimed benefit is equivalent to that of the estimated level of fraud: between £2.2 billion and £3.5 billion in means-tested benefits each year.

Recent measures to clamp down on fraud include the Benefit Fraud Hotline, launched in summer 1996, which gets around 1,500 calls a day. The 1997 Fraud Bill contained various measures to increase powers of local authorities to investigate fraud and raised the penalties for committing benefit fraud.

Source: BBC Newsgathering

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